Workshop Portfolio

<FOOLISH WORKSHOP>

Unemotional Growth Update      

by Jim Stevens (JimStevens@aol.com)


Burlington, VT (April 8, 1999) -- Time for my monthly update of the Unemotional Growth model. For those of you not familiar with the UG, it's a monthly traded stock screen developed by former Foolish Workshop writer Robert Sheard. It's been backtested or tracked since January 1, 1987.

Picking the stocks for Unemotional Growth is simple; you can do it without a computer or a lot of time. All you need are the current issues of The ValueLine Investment Survey and Investor's Business Daily. Start with the Value Line Timeliness #1 list of 100 stocks. The original backtest threw out any foreign domiciled stocks. With this list in hand, rank each one by its Investor's Business Daily "EPS" score. The top 5 or 10 are the Unemotional Growth stocks. Break ties with the IBD "Relative Strength" score.

Looking back a month to my latest Unemotional Growth report, we can see what the March UG stocks were. Here is how they performed over the March holding period:

Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL)           -4.28%
Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT)         18.88%
Tellabs  Inc. (Nasdaq: TLAB)           19.11%
Network Assoc. (Nasdaq: NETA)         -34.57%
Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL)               -4.04%
Oracle Corp. (Nasdaq: ORCL)           -31.05%
Dycom Inds. (NYSE: DY)                  9.28%
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT)                6.66%
MiniMed Inc. (Nasdaq: MNMD)            14.73%
CDW Computer Centers (Nasdaq: CDWC)    12.35%
                                        UG 5       -0.98%
                                        UG 10       0.71%
 

A pair of poor performing stocks dragged the month down. With a five- or ten-stock model this can be a pitfall. This is one reason many Workshop investors like to spread their portfolio over more than a few stocks.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index tacked on 1.43% during the same March time frame. Year-to-date, the UG5 return is -6.56% and the UG10 1999 return is now -8.94%. For 1999, from the first UG update to April's, the S&P 500 is up 5.25%.

We keep track of the long-term track record of the UG screen on the UG History page. Including the March numbers, the UG5 has returned 35.80% since 1987 and the UG10 26.40%.

From the most recent Workshop Rankings, here are the Unemotional Growth stocks for April 1999. Already a bad start to the month, with more bleeding from Network Associates on restated earnings, analyst downgrades, and shareholder lawsuits. Ouch!

Amer. Eagle Outfitters (Nasdaq: AEOS)
Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT)
Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL)
Chattem Inc. (Nasdaq: CHTT)
Network Assoc. (Nasdaq: NETA)
Dycom Inds. (NYSE: DY)
MiniMed Inc. (Nasdaq: MNMD)
Tellabs  Inc. (Nasdaq: TLAB)
Waters Corp. (NYSE: WAT)
CDW Computer Centers (Nasdaq: CDWC)

Stay Foolish!
New Rankings | Workshop Returns


Workshop Portfolio


9/28/01 as of ~5:30:00 PM EDT

Ticker Company Price
Change
Daily Price
% Change
Price
AETAETNA INC NEW0.943.36%28.94
BABOEING CO(1.04)(3.02%)33.36
CATCATERPILLAR INC1.112.53%44.91
COGCABOT OIL & GAS 'A'0.693.59%19.90
DDDU PONT (EI) DE NEMOURS0.992.74%37.14
DGXQUEST DIAGNOSTICS(0.45)(0.73%)61.42
EKEASTMAN KODAK0.421.31%32.49
GMGENERAL MOTORS1.393.38%42.55
LHLABORATORY CORP AMER HLDG(NEW)1.141.42%81.21
MOPHILIP MORRIS COS(0.76)(1.55%)48.24
NEWPNEWPORT CORP0.261.90%13.97
NVRNVR INC(0.54)(0.38%)140.41
PKXPOHANG IRON & STEEL ADS1.097.51%15.61
PVNPROVIDIAN FINANCIAL1.075.64%20.04
QCOMQUALCOMM INC(0.40)(0.84%)47.16
RJRRJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO HLDGS(0.69)(1.19%)57.31
SLESARA LEE CORPUnchg.Unchg.21.09
UNFIUNITED NATURAL FOODS0.563.18%18.15
WMIWASTE MANAGEMENT(0.01)(0.04%)26.74

Overall Return -- total % Gained (Lost)
  Day Week Month Year
To Date
Since
Inception
(12/24/1998)
Workshop1.30%7.32%(12.02%)(20.66%)(18.91%)
Comparable S&P 500n/an/an/an/a(19.07%)
S&P 500 (DA)1.95%7.48%(8.33%)(21.22%)(14.88%)
NASDAQ2.02%4.71%(17.46%)(39.68%)(31.41%)
DJIA (DA)1.68%7.07%(11.07%)(17.86%)(2.22%)

Internal Rate of Return -- Annualized Rate of % Gained (Lost)
  Since Inception (12/24/1998)
Workshop(17.62%)
vs. S&P 500(17.63%)

Trade Date # Shares Ticker Cost/Share Price Total % Ret
1/8/0126MO40.9448.2417.82%
1/8/0122RJR50.1057.3114.39%
1/8/0167UNFI16.4518.1510.34%
12/24/9824CAT43.0844.914.24%
1/8/018NVR136.63140.412.77%
1/8/0140WMI27.4426.74(2.54%)
1/8/0150SLE22.5421.09(6.42%)
1/8/0161PKX17.8315.61(12.46%)
1/8/0115DD48.8337.14(23.95%)
1/8/0129AET38.1728.94(24.19%)
1/8/0139COG28.7519.90(30.79%)
1/8/0114QCOM75.5447.16(37.57%)
1/8/018LH134.6981.21(39.70%)
12/27/9918GM73.2642.55(41.92%)
1/8/0118BA59.5333.36(43.96%)
1/8/019DGX114.4961.42(46.35%)
12/27/9920EK65.0932.49(50.08%)
1/8/0120PVN55.5020.04(63.89%)
1/8/0115NEWP74.9613.97(81.36%)

Trade Date # Shares Ticker Total Cost Current Value Total Gain
1/8/0126MO$1,064.50$1,254.24$189.74
1/8/0122RJR$1,102.25$1,260.82$158.57
1/8/0167UNFI$1,102.12$1,216.05$113.93
12/24/9824CAT$1,034.00$1,077.84$43.84
1/8/018NVR$1,093.00$1,123.28$30.28
1/8/0140WMI$1,097.50$1,069.60($27.90)
1/8/0150SLE$1,126.88$1,054.50($72.38)
1/8/0161PKX$1,087.75$952.21($135.54)
1/8/0115DD$732.50$557.10($175.40)
1/8/0129AET$1,107.00$839.26($267.74)
1/8/0139COG$1,121.37$776.10($345.28)
1/8/0114QCOM$1,057.62$660.24($397.39)
1/8/018LH$1,077.50$649.68($427.82)
1/8/0118BA$1,071.50$600.48($471.02)
1/8/019DGX$1,030.44$552.78($477.66)
12/27/9918GM$1,318.62$765.90($552.73)
12/27/9920EK$1,301.75$649.80($651.95)
1/8/0120PVN$1,110.00$400.80($709.20)
1/8/0115NEWP$1,124.37$209.55($914.83)
 
Cash: 
Total: 
$10.80
$15,681.03
 

Key
• S&P 500 (DA) = dividend adjusted. Dividends have been added to the total return of the index.
• DJIA (DA) = dividend adjusted. Dividends have been added to the total return of the DJIA.

Note
Note: The Workshop Portfolio was launched on December 24, 1998, with $4,000 which was invested in the Foolish Four strategy. Approximately $15,000 was added on January 8, 2001, to support five additional mechanical strategies. At that time approximately $1000 was transfered out of the Foolish Four strategy to bring the Foolish Four into balance with the other strategies. (That's why the Foolish Four's overall return is not consistent with stock values.) Such rebalancing will take place each year among the strategies so that each will start out with approximately the same value at the begining of the year. No more cash additions are planned. The first four tables above show the overall performance of the portfolio. Below that we also track the performance of each component strategy. All transactions are announced publicly before being made, and returns are compared daily to the S&P 500 and the Dow. (Dividends are included in the yearly, historic and annualized returns.) Stocks are chosen using strategies developed by the Workshop community.