Workshop Portfolio

<WORKSHOP>

Relative Strength IBD
Yeah, Baybee!

By Jim Stevens (Workshop)

BURLINGTON, VT (Sept. 9, 1999) -- How about an investment that's been doubling money in less than 12 months on average for about three years? A monthly version of the Relative Strength - IBD (Investor's Business Daily) mechanical stock screen boasts this record.

The last I knew, a complete backtest of this model was still being assembled by industrious message board contributor Sux2BeU -- thanks, Sux! In the meantime, many of us have liked the current results of the model so much that we can't resist saying "I'll take a large serving of RS-IBD monthly on the side, please."

As I mention in my Foolish Interview, this screen is what led to my "best investment" back in February of 1997. Dell Computer (Nasdaq: DELL) has since remained in my portfolio by way of the RS-IBD or Keystone screens, racking up gains to what is now about a ten-bagger. A few more stocks like that and I'll be spending way more time in the lower latitudes! Oops, not very unemotional there, sorry.

Getting back on track, I bring you an update of the monthly RS-IBD screen. The stocks for the model are picked as follows: Starting with the 100 stocks ranked #1 for timeliness in the Value Line Investment Survey, sort out the top 5 or 10 with the highest IBD relative strength scores. Break ties with the IBD earnings per share (EPS) score. Update once per month, replacing any stocks that no longer make the screen. Just like the Unemotional Growth model, the trades for the mock IBD-RS portfolio I track are based on the closing prices for the first Friday of the month.

Here are last month's stocks as listed in the August 6, 1999, current rankings, listed with their performances for August through last Friday:

Qualcomm Inc. (Nasdaq: QCOM)         10.58%
VISX Inc. (Nasdaq: VISX)              2.65%
JDS Uniphase (Nasdaq: JDSU)          35.43%
PMC - Sierra Inc. (Nasdaq: PMCS)     20.40%
IDEC Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: IDPH)  28.33%
CTS Corp. (NYSE: CTS)                18.30%
Xilinx Inc. (Nasdaq: XLNX)           19.36%
Imunex Corp. (Nasdaq: IMNX)          22.08%
American Freightways (Nasdaq: AFWY)  -6.67%
Best Buy Co. (NYSE: BBY)            -10.35%

IBD-RS5 19.48% IBD-RS10 14.01% S&P 500 Dep Rcpts (AMEX: SPY) 4.29%
Another fabulous month for the screen! That followed a swoon in July when the model returned -10.05% and -7.76% for the 5- and 10-stock versions, respectively. After an early backslide, it turned into a summer of love for the RS-IBD stocks. The year-to-date returns for RS-IBD monthly now stand at -- I swear I'm not making this up -- 108.09% for the RS-IBD5 and 70.94% for the RS-IBD10. A nice move from my last update of RS-IBD on July 8, 1999.

Remember, kids, that these are only hypothetical returns and do not account for real costs like commissions, taxes, and bid/ask spreads. Check out the current rankings for the latest picks from this screen.

Other contributors to the Workshop keep tabs on this model as well, and it's been pointed out to me that some of the returns differ widely from what I've been publishing. Although there's always the possibility I could have made a muff or two in my record keeping, I think most of the differences are due to the slightly different ways used to track the hypothetical trades and stock prices of the model. Please let me know if you notice a missed stock split or other possible flub.

I'm sure we'll be hearing much more about this crowd-pleasing screen in future Workshop episodes. For now, have a great weekend!

New Rankings | Workshop Returns


Workshop Portfolio


9/28/01 as of ~5:30:00 PM EDT

Ticker Company Price
Change
Daily Price
% Change
Price
AETAETNA INC NEW0.943.36%28.94
BABOEING CO(1.04)(3.02%)33.36
CATCATERPILLAR INC1.112.53%44.91
COGCABOT OIL & GAS 'A'0.693.59%19.90
DDDU PONT (EI) DE NEMOURS0.992.74%37.14
DGXQUEST DIAGNOSTICS(0.45)(0.73%)61.42
EKEASTMAN KODAK0.421.31%32.49
GMGENERAL MOTORS1.393.38%42.55
LHLABORATORY CORP AMER HLDG(NEW)1.141.42%81.21
MOPHILIP MORRIS COS(0.76)(1.55%)48.24
NEWPNEWPORT CORP0.261.90%13.97
NVRNVR INC(0.54)(0.38%)140.41
PKXPOHANG IRON & STEEL ADS1.097.51%15.61
PVNPROVIDIAN FINANCIAL1.075.64%20.04
QCOMQUALCOMM INC(0.40)(0.84%)47.16
RJRRJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO HLDGS(0.69)(1.19%)57.31
SLESARA LEE CORPUnchg.Unchg.21.09
UNFIUNITED NATURAL FOODS0.563.18%18.15
WMIWASTE MANAGEMENT(0.01)(0.04%)26.74

Overall Return -- total % Gained (Lost)
  Day Week Month Year
To Date
Since
Inception
(12/24/1998)
Workshop1.30%7.32%(12.02%)(20.66%)(18.91%)
Comparable S&P 500n/an/an/an/a(19.07%)
S&P 500 (DA)1.95%7.48%(8.33%)(21.22%)(14.88%)
NASDAQ2.02%4.71%(17.46%)(39.68%)(31.41%)
DJIA (DA)1.68%7.07%(11.07%)(17.86%)(2.22%)

Internal Rate of Return -- Annualized Rate of % Gained (Lost)
  Since Inception (12/24/1998)
Workshop(17.62%)
vs. S&P 500(17.63%)

Trade Date # Shares Ticker Cost/Share Price Total % Ret
1/8/0126MO40.9448.2417.82%
1/8/0122RJR50.1057.3114.39%
1/8/0167UNFI16.4518.1510.34%
12/24/9824CAT43.0844.914.24%
1/8/018NVR136.63140.412.77%
1/8/0140WMI27.4426.74(2.54%)
1/8/0150SLE22.5421.09(6.42%)
1/8/0161PKX17.8315.61(12.46%)
1/8/0115DD48.8337.14(23.95%)
1/8/0129AET38.1728.94(24.19%)
1/8/0139COG28.7519.90(30.79%)
1/8/0114QCOM75.5447.16(37.57%)
1/8/018LH134.6981.21(39.70%)
12/27/9918GM73.2642.55(41.92%)
1/8/0118BA59.5333.36(43.96%)
1/8/019DGX114.4961.42(46.35%)
12/27/9920EK65.0932.49(50.08%)
1/8/0120PVN55.5020.04(63.89%)
1/8/0115NEWP74.9613.97(81.36%)

Trade Date # Shares Ticker Total Cost Current Value Total Gain
1/8/0126MO$1,064.50$1,254.24$189.74
1/8/0122RJR$1,102.25$1,260.82$158.57
1/8/0167UNFI$1,102.12$1,216.05$113.93
12/24/9824CAT$1,034.00$1,077.84$43.84
1/8/018NVR$1,093.00$1,123.28$30.28
1/8/0140WMI$1,097.50$1,069.60($27.90)
1/8/0150SLE$1,126.88$1,054.50($72.38)
1/8/0161PKX$1,087.75$952.21($135.54)
1/8/0115DD$732.50$557.10($175.40)
1/8/0129AET$1,107.00$839.26($267.74)
1/8/0139COG$1,121.37$776.10($345.28)
1/8/0114QCOM$1,057.62$660.24($397.39)
1/8/018LH$1,077.50$649.68($427.82)
1/8/0118BA$1,071.50$600.48($471.02)
1/8/019DGX$1,030.44$552.78($477.66)
12/27/9918GM$1,318.62$765.90($552.73)
12/27/9920EK$1,301.75$649.80($651.95)
1/8/0120PVN$1,110.00$400.80($709.20)
1/8/0115NEWP$1,124.37$209.55($914.83)
 
Cash: 
Total: 
$10.80
$15,681.03
 

Key
• S&P 500 (DA) = dividend adjusted. Dividends have been added to the total return of the index.
• DJIA (DA) = dividend adjusted. Dividends have been added to the total return of the DJIA.

Note
Note: The Workshop Portfolio was launched on December 24, 1998, with $4,000 which was invested in the Foolish Four strategy. Approximately $15,000 was added on January 8, 2001, to support five additional mechanical strategies. At that time approximately $1000 was transfered out of the Foolish Four strategy to bring the Foolish Four into balance with the other strategies. (That's why the Foolish Four's overall return is not consistent with stock values.) Such rebalancing will take place each year among the strategies so that each will start out with approximately the same value at the begining of the year. No more cash additions are planned. The first four tables above show the overall performance of the portfolio. Below that we also track the performance of each component strategy. All transactions are announced publicly before being made, and returns are compared daily to the S&P 500 and the Dow. (Dividends are included in the yearly, historic and annualized returns.) Stocks are chosen using strategies developed by the Workshop community.