Workshop Portfolio

Foolish Workshop
Workshop 2000

Planning ahead

By Elan Caspi (TMF Elan)

EL CERRITO, CA (Nov. 11, 1999) -- Anyone who has ever ventured onto the Mechanical Investing message board has noticed that it is a Workshop on steroids. Participants on that board have developed not only half of the strategies we cover here in the Workshop, but literally dozens of other stock screening methods that are extremely exciting.

As we approach this brave new millennium (sorry, couldn't help it) we need to take stock of what we have learned during this last year and incorporate into our lists of "officially" followed strategies the best techniques developed in that yeast vat called the Mechanical Investing board.

A few weeks ago I asked readers of both the Foolish Workshop and Mechanical Investing message boards to "vote" on which screens you would like us to report on in our official Workshop Rankings next year. The results are in. A total of 100 people responded, split almost equally between the two boards, with a few responding to me directly by e-mail.

I tabulated the results like a screen of screens, assigning 10 points to each person's top pick, 9 points to the second pick, and so on. Up to 10 picks were taken from each list. If you recommended more screens, the bottom of your list was truncated. If you recommended fewer, your top pick still got 10 points.

The full list of screens is shown below, ranked from highest to lowest vote count. Most of the incumbent screens in our Current Rankings were voted in for another year. Four of the current screens received less than 100 points and will be removed.

I also tabulated the results separately for the MI and Workshop boards. Assuming that mostly veterans voted on the MI board and relative newcomers voted on the Workshop board, I was curious whether there were any differences. And there are. Not surprisingly, the Workshop voters stuck more closely to the incumbent screens. This is most notable with the UG and IFG screens, which got almost no votes on the MI board but got quite a few on the Workshop board. Also, the MI voters favored Keystone100 and PEG13 much more than the Workshop voters did. I expect that this is mostly because the Workshop voters have not seen these newer strategies discussed as much.

Since we'd like to keep as many people happy as possible, we're going to consider expanding the list for next year, perhaps from 10 screens to 12.

New strategies receiving more than 100 points are: Keystone100, Plowback, PEG(RS13), KeystoneEPS, RS13, and Plowback(RSW). We will be examining each of these strategies in depth over the next few weeks.

The screens that are definitely being removed are: Unemotional Growth (UG), Investing for Growth (IFG), Beta, and Low Price to Sales (LPS). Please note, we decided to drop IFG and UG not because the "veterans" didn't support them but because we have developed other screens with better returns and lower volatility. They were pretty much doomed even before the vote, although if there had been overwhelming support for them, we would have reconsidered. They won't disappear, however; they will be "retired" to a special Unemotional Investor page that discusses changes in the Workshop since Robert Sheard's seminal book.

Here is the full tally of votes.

          Points 
PEG26      675
RS-IBD     495
Spark      464
RS-26      441
Keystone   304
Formula90  258
Key100     181
Plowback   174
PEG13      164
Key-EPS    145
RS-13      136
Plow-RSW   133
UG          99
PEG-RSW     93
AD-IBD      48
LPS         35
IFG Classic 32
BSP         31
EG          27
Blitz       25
RSO         24
PLD         28
WER-TD      18
WER-ADRS    17
Beta        17
RS4         16
RS52        15
Uniq3       15
ROIC        14
SOS         12
RSW         10
EGRSW        9
KEPS30       5
BI           4
LEAPS        1
PEGOL        1
Fool on!

New Rankings | Workshop Returns


Workshop Portfolio


9/28/01 as of ~5:30:00 PM EDT

Ticker Company Price
Change
Daily Price
% Change
Price
AETAETNA INC NEW0.943.36%28.94
BABOEING CO(1.04)(3.02%)33.36
CATCATERPILLAR INC1.112.53%44.91
COGCABOT OIL & GAS 'A'0.693.59%19.90
DDDU PONT (EI) DE NEMOURS0.992.74%37.14
DGXQUEST DIAGNOSTICS(0.45)(0.73%)61.42
EKEASTMAN KODAK0.421.31%32.49
GMGENERAL MOTORS1.393.38%42.55
LHLABORATORY CORP AMER HLDG(NEW)1.141.42%81.21
MOPHILIP MORRIS COS(0.76)(1.55%)48.24
NEWPNEWPORT CORP0.261.90%13.97
NVRNVR INC(0.54)(0.38%)140.41
PKXPOHANG IRON & STEEL ADS1.097.51%15.61
PVNPROVIDIAN FINANCIAL1.075.64%20.04
QCOMQUALCOMM INC(0.40)(0.84%)47.16
RJRRJ REYNOLDS TOBACCO HLDGS(0.69)(1.19%)57.31
SLESARA LEE CORPUnchg.Unchg.21.09
UNFIUNITED NATURAL FOODS0.563.18%18.15
WMIWASTE MANAGEMENT(0.01)(0.04%)26.74

Overall Return -- total % Gained (Lost)
  Day Week Month Year
To Date
Since
Inception
(12/24/1998)
Workshop1.30%7.32%(12.02%)(20.66%)(18.91%)
Comparable S&P 500n/an/an/an/a(19.07%)
S&P 500 (DA)1.95%7.48%(8.33%)(21.22%)(14.88%)
NASDAQ2.02%4.71%(17.46%)(39.68%)(31.41%)
DJIA (DA)1.68%7.07%(11.07%)(17.86%)(2.22%)

Internal Rate of Return -- Annualized Rate of % Gained (Lost)
  Since Inception (12/24/1998)
Workshop(17.62%)
vs. S&P 500(17.63%)

Trade Date # Shares Ticker Cost/Share Price Total % Ret
1/8/0126MO40.9448.2417.82%
1/8/0122RJR50.1057.3114.39%
1/8/0167UNFI16.4518.1510.34%
12/24/9824CAT43.0844.914.24%
1/8/018NVR136.63140.412.77%
1/8/0140WMI27.4426.74(2.54%)
1/8/0150SLE22.5421.09(6.42%)
1/8/0161PKX17.8315.61(12.46%)
1/8/0115DD48.8337.14(23.95%)
1/8/0129AET38.1728.94(24.19%)
1/8/0139COG28.7519.90(30.79%)
1/8/0114QCOM75.5447.16(37.57%)
1/8/018LH134.6981.21(39.70%)
12/27/9918GM73.2642.55(41.92%)
1/8/0118BA59.5333.36(43.96%)
1/8/019DGX114.4961.42(46.35%)
12/27/9920EK65.0932.49(50.08%)
1/8/0120PVN55.5020.04(63.89%)
1/8/0115NEWP74.9613.97(81.36%)

Trade Date # Shares Ticker Total Cost Current Value Total Gain
1/8/0126MO$1,064.50$1,254.24$189.74
1/8/0122RJR$1,102.25$1,260.82$158.57
1/8/0167UNFI$1,102.12$1,216.05$113.93
12/24/9824CAT$1,034.00$1,077.84$43.84
1/8/018NVR$1,093.00$1,123.28$30.28
1/8/0140WMI$1,097.50$1,069.60($27.90)
1/8/0150SLE$1,126.88$1,054.50($72.38)
1/8/0161PKX$1,087.75$952.21($135.54)
1/8/0115DD$732.50$557.10($175.40)
1/8/0129AET$1,107.00$839.26($267.74)
1/8/0139COG$1,121.37$776.10($345.28)
1/8/0114QCOM$1,057.62$660.24($397.39)
1/8/018LH$1,077.50$649.68($427.82)
1/8/0118BA$1,071.50$600.48($471.02)
1/8/019DGX$1,030.44$552.78($477.66)
12/27/9918GM$1,318.62$765.90($552.73)
12/27/9920EK$1,301.75$649.80($651.95)
1/8/0120PVN$1,110.00$400.80($709.20)
1/8/0115NEWP$1,124.37$209.55($914.83)
 
Cash: 
Total: 
$10.80
$15,681.03
 

Key
• S&P 500 (DA) = dividend adjusted. Dividends have been added to the total return of the index.
• DJIA (DA) = dividend adjusted. Dividends have been added to the total return of the DJIA.

Note
Note: The Workshop Portfolio was launched on December 24, 1998, with $4,000 which was invested in the Foolish Four strategy. Approximately $15,000 was added on January 8, 2001, to support five additional mechanical strategies. At that time approximately $1000 was transfered out of the Foolish Four strategy to bring the Foolish Four into balance with the other strategies. (That's why the Foolish Four's overall return is not consistent with stock values.) Such rebalancing will take place each year among the strategies so that each will start out with approximately the same value at the begining of the year. No more cash additions are planned. The first four tables above show the overall performance of the portfolio. Below that we also track the performance of each component strategy. All transactions are announced publicly before being made, and returns are compared daily to the S&P 500 and the Dow. (Dividends are included in the yearly, historic and annualized returns.) Stocks are chosen using strategies developed by the Workshop community.