Fool Portfolio Report
Monday, July 28, 1997
by Jeff Fischer (TMFJeff)


ALEXANDRIA, VA, (July 28, 1997) -- The Fool was able to take one small step forward, moving up 0.15% while the S&P fell 0.25%. Stocks levitated indecisively while awaiting a full week of economic data, none of which we'll really worry about here. America Online isn't likely to become a bad investment just because real-wages happen to rise, for example, though the stock might slip for a day on such news.

Today AMERICA ONLINE (NYSE: AOL) rose over $5 during the day due to a Barron's column over the weekend in which esteemed Legg Mason fund manager William Miller predicted operating margins of 20% on revenues of $5 billion within five years. The stock gave the gain back -- or most of it -- and closed just above $65, up one dollar. The Fool values the stock in the $90 range over the next eighteen months on a subscriber-based valuation, predicting 10 million subscribers by that time.

America Online announces earnings on August 7, and $0.07 per share is expected. That would give AOL a loss of $0.29 per share for the just-ended fiscal ' 97, while next year the company is estimated to earn $0.87 per share, beginning with $0.12 in the first quarter. Estimates could easily be influenced by the August earnings report if analysts prove at all off the mark.

TRUMP HOTELS (NYSE: DJT) announces earnings this week. Over the past few months the mean earnings estimate has fluctuated from negative to positive, and back to negative again. Currently a loss of two cents per share is expected, but estimates of the four analysts range from a loss of seventeen cents to a gain of nine cents.

Last week Trump's gaming wins were released for the month of June and numbers were down across the board. Riverboat casino competition is hurting the Trump riverboat in Indiana, while the apparent decrease in Trump's Atlantic City business is harder to explain. "Gaming wins" usually indicate how active the business is -- the more "wins," the more revenues behind the wins. We'll see how the first half of Trump's summer shaped up later this week.

GENERAL MOTORS (NYSE: GM) climbed $1 5/8 on news that the company reached an agreement with the United Auto Workers, ending a strike that had begun last week. The strike -- like so many others -- was in reaction to GM's plan of decreasing its number of employees through attrition. Attrition was the word used, and it does sound brutal -- and even worthy of striking against. The settlement burned off a threatening dark cloud that could have impacted GM's production.

The settlement wasn't enough to burn off the stormclouds around Alexandria Virginia this early evening, though. A blast of lightning actually took down the network here at Fool HQ, only for a second, but long enough to zap any unsaved cyberwriting... and now we have a shortened recap.

The Fool is very happy to announce a new portfolio tonight, run by Randy Befumo and Jeff Fischer (that's me). This real-money portfolio will use Dividend Reinvestment Plans (DRPs) with a goal of building an initial $500 and $100 extra per month into $150,000 over twenty years. This would represent a 15.5% annualized return, handily beating the historical performance of the S&P. If you've wanted to start investing, or want to save more money every month and put it directly into stocks without paying brokerage commissions -- well, that's what this portfolio is all about! Give it a look, and come on back tomorrow when Randy Befumo and I begin to argue -- in the nightly recaps -- exactly what we're going to buy within the next few weeks.

Until tomorrow, Fool on!

Fool Message Boards -- Speak your Foolish mind!
Boring Portfolio -- Boring is beating the Fool Port.
Fool Four Portfolio -- 23% annually, historically.
Evening News -- The latest stock news, a day before the papers.
Port Tracker -- Update your portfolio daily, easily.
Daily Double -- Daily Double looking for trouble?
Daily Trouble -- Is there value in this butchered stock?
Fribble -- A fun short story from readers.


TODAY'S NUMBERS
Stock Change Bid ---------------- AOL +1 65.19 T + 1/2 36.38 ATCT --- 4.19 CHV + 5/16 78.31 DJT --- 10.75 GM +1 5/8 58.50 INVX - 7/8 31.75 IOM - 3/16 21.63 KLAC +1 5/16 63.31 LU -1 7/16 82.94 MMM + 5/8 95.25 COMS -1 9/16 55.00
Day Month Year History FOOL +0.15% 8.05% 13.95% 204.11% S&P: -0.25% 5.80% 26.42% 104.29% NASDAQ: -0.39% 8.42% 21.11% 117.10% Rec'd # Security In At Now Change 8/5/94 355 AmOnline 7.27 65.19 796.66% 5/17/95 980 Iomega Cor 2.52 21.63 758.13% 10/1/96 42 LucentTech 47.62 82.94 74.18% 8/11/95 125 Chevron 50.28 78.31 55.74% 8/12/96 110 Minn M&M 65.68 95.25 45.03% 8/24/95 130 KLA-Tencor 44.71 63.31 41.60% 8/13/96 250 3Com Corp. 46.86 55.00 17.37% 6/26/97 325 Innovex 27.71 31.75 14.58% 8/12/96 280 Gen'l Moto 51.97 58.50 12.56% 8/12/96 130 AT&T 39.58 36.38 -8.09% 4/30/97 -1170 *Trump* 8.47 10.75 -26.94% 10/22/96 600 ATC Comm. 22.94 4.19 -81.74% Rec'd # Security In At Value Change 8/5/94 355 AmOnline 2581.87 23141.56 $20559.69 5/17/95 980 Iomega Cor 2594.53 21192.50 $18597.97 8/11/95 125 Chevron 6285.61 9789.06 $3503.45 8/12/96 110 Minn M&M 7224.44 10477.50 $3253.06 8/24/95 130 KLA-Tencor 5812.49 8230.63 $2418.14 8/13/96 250 3Com Corp. 11714.99 13750.00 $2035.01 8/12/96 280 Gen'l Moto 14552.49 16380.00 $1827.51 10/1/96 42 LucentTech 1999.88 3483.38 $1483.50 6/26/97 325 Innovex 9005.62 10318.75 $1313.13 8/12/96 130 AT&T 5145.11 4728.75 -$416.36 4/30/97 -1170*Trump* -9908.50 -12577.50 -$2669.00 10/22/96 600 ATC Comm. 13761.50 2512.50-$11249.00 CASH $40625.59 TOTAL $152052.72