Post of the Day
June 26, 1998

From our
Amazon.com Board


Subject: Whew!
Author: Trick

Just read all 40 or some posts. Kind of like a weird foreign movie about infinity... you start at the beginning and the posts continue to pile up at the end, so one can never get there.

One thing is clear from all these posts. It is the rare person here who can read all of this, and maintain a consistent train of thought or posting through 30+ messages. David Gardner popped in and said that he was serious about this stock, the value is real and correct, and boom, the discussion dropped the thread of speculation. Not completely, a few were able to blend the ideas together, but most do not. In my opinion, the people who can do this, have valuable insight worth giving attention. (Who cares, right?)

The other thing to notice is the way so many people listen to what David said and believe it, even though in this case, he didn't really try to justify his position beyond the fact that it has been successful. Kind of like, "Gardner thinks like me, so I must be right." I might be wrong, but that approach seems more Wise than Foolish. I hope TMF keeps it in mind that their comments and advice influence many people.
"Look folks, you may be in for the long haul, and that is great, but speculation and short squeezing is driving price right now"  

For those still reading, here is the part where I disagree with David, although I respect his opinion:

Look folks, you may be in for the long haul, and that is great, but speculation and short squeezing is driving price right now. The daily volume is huge relative to the amount of stock available for trading. No matter what David or anyone else is telling you, this means that over half the owners of tradeable stock are buying and selling everyday, often several times a day. Maybe you should think of your AMZN holdings as a used car, or something of similar value less abstract than stocks. What if half the used cars in your town were being traded everyday? Would you be comfortable buying a used car in that market? Daily market activity is not that important if you bought a year ago and you intend to drive this car for awhile, but if you purchased since the split, know that this is a very volatile stock. Treat it accordingly. Just be ready to sell. (keep in mind that the splitmakes this similar to a situation where someone brought in an equal number of used cars to that already being traded and it had absolutly no impact on the price of a car, in fact, it caused the price to go up!)
  "...selling AMZN stock does not indicate you think the company is bad or doomed. It just means the stock might be trading above its current real value."

I don't mean to be pedantic, but it seems there is a wide range of investment experience in this particular stock. In this market, selling AMZN stock does not indicate you think the company is bad or doomed. It just means the stock might be trading above its current real value. Remember, you can reap some profit now, and buy back in at a lower price after things settle down. Enjoy the ride, and if it goes on forever, great. Just be ready to sell in case it doesn't. Take a look at the 3 year chart on Iomega (IOM) to see what is possible.

All in all, a great posting day. I apologize for my lengthy rambling.

Rick


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