Post of the Day
August 13, 1998
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Subject: Re: dis sale!!!!!
Let's see, I've owned Disney for about 40 years and I can't tell you how many times I've heard the same complaints and charges about Disney. "The movies aren't as good as they used to be." The Parks are too expensive." The food isn't good." "The company is losing money." The TV shows aren't funny." The odd thing is, through all the comments, my investments keep increasing.
Here's the deal on the parks, gang. They are safe, clean, consistent and predictable. When parents want to take their kids on vacation, that's what they look for. There will be a market for "name brand" parks like Disney's for many. many years.
The problem with Disney is that some people expect instant perfection. Every film has to be a block-buster. Every new business venture has to be an immediate success. When the Company bought ABC, the plan called for 3-5 years to correct the obvious problems. How much time has past? Disney Cruise Ships ... hey, it's the first month!
As far as the Quality of the company, it all depends on what you expect. As shareholders, we want parks at full capacity. As vacationers, we complain about crowds and prices. Can't have it both ways. The crowds and prices are a result of the demand and not the other way around. Other parks have to run late-summer promotions to boost business ... not Disney.
I'm not unrealistic about the Company and I don't agree with many decisions, but I'm not concerned about the drop in share price. The actual value of the Company has not changed.
If you like a comfortable, long-term (5 years or more) investment ... then this might be a good time to buy. Don't sweat every up and down. Buy and then wait 6 months and see where you'll be.
Oh, for all the "Disney is in the tank" folks. Realistically, how much actual revenue would the Company have to lose before the stock would drop and hold at $25.00? Then, what is the probability of that happening? Gang, not this summer. Disney is making money.
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