Post of the Day
September 17, 1998
Year 2000 Problem Folder
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Subject: Insider's View
Having been a developer, project leader, enterprise architect and project manager, I have had the opportunity to view this issue from many different sides, with all of the conflicting understanding and objectives.
From what I have seen I feel confident that the following points are relevant:
Some businesses will not function after the year 2000 on the scale of one to 30 days. Those in the 30 day category will, like UPS on strike, find they have lost market to competitors. Those with the most sever issues, may wait a billing cycle and restart or fail because they could not. We can all enjoy the levity of receiving a bill for 1/15/1900 - 2/15/1900.
|"The largest money maker in 2001 to 2011 may be the legal team being set up now for litigation starting 1/2/00."|
Some areas of the country will face utility outages. Most having to do with systems that automatically shut down for maintenance. While a significant pain in the behind, it will have little impact on the economy as a whole. You may wish to plan like you would for a natural disaster in your area.
Y2k work will continue well into 2000. This can impact performance as money thought available will still be tied to recovery and renewal. Capital expenditures and expansion held back by the need to invest internally with no revenue for the work.
Look at emerging technologies to jump out in 2001. If a system was not so critical it could be left for later on, it will most likely be a target of reengineering into the newer technologies. (Microsoft, SUN, etc.) In addition, the demand for projects, put on hold, so the funds could be used for Y2k work are now available. (Ecommerce)
Keep an eye for your holdings release on their Y2k compliance. If a company you are holding fails Y2k, beware. The largest money maker in 2001 to 2011 may be the legal team being set up now for litigation starting 1/2/00. I know of Y2K project managers who are currently contacting legal firms to act as Y2k expert witnesses (talk about both sides of the fence.
|"A healthy fear is not a bad thing. Many Y2k experts are industry experts. With years of experience they have seen the potential and in their evaluation have made a risk assessment."|
A healthy fear is not a bad thing. Many Y2k experts are industry experts. With years of experience they have seen the potential and in their evaluation have made a risk assessment. Like most assessments, they are subject to interpretation. Something to consider when investing.
That being said, I am reminded of the saying that "all that can go wrong won't". But that doesn't mean that the ones that do won't hurt. ;-)
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