Post of the Day
June 7, 1999
Foolish Workshop Folder
Posts selected for this feature rarely stand alone. They are usually a part of an ongoing thread, and are out of context when presented here. The material should be read in that light.
Subject: What's today's Amazon.bomb?
Which publication will be selected to do the dirty deed this time? Will it be the Wall Street Journal's turn? Let's see Barrons had it last week. How about the New York Times? Clearly the press has it's own agenda, rendering it less useful to it's investor readers.
Here's a solution: Force the editors, publishers and producers of the most "respected" media on Wall Street to TRADE their recommendations with THEIR OWN MONEY for just one year. I would be fascinated to see those results.
Sure, I read these publications. . . .but mostly for the funny pages. If I cannot believe ONE article to be unbiased, how can I believe ANY of them? So the entire time I am reading these "analysts" views, I am feeling like I am being trapped by the vacuum cleaner salesman. . . .or stuck in some time share presentation.
To be successful, we on-line traders must become our own journalists. We must rely on one another, for unbiased perspectives and critical insight in this fight for dollars. . . BIG bucks against the little bucks. I will read a post on Silicon Investor or Raging Bull with FAR more interest than one appearing in the Wall Street Journal. Because I can sense that the writer has his own money on the line. The individual on-line investor tends to look at both sides of an argument before plunking down his money, carefully weighing the pros and cons. The journalist just says he does.
And I prefer the scummy, scammy and endless drivel from Yahoo's Message Boards to Barrons, where stories, regardless how ridiculous or slanted, have FAR too much impact on the market trading than one paper should be allowed.
|"Wall Street is the Wild West. ANYTHING the big money must do. . .any bribe, any lie, any dirt they can dredge up, to suit their "bigger purpose" is fair. And truly anything goes. "|
And the parade of analysts saying "sell Intel" [so we can buy it]. . .or "strong buy on AOL" [we need strength to dump it into]. . .Are there not regulations against manipulation of the market of any sort? Is this not a double standard at the SEC?
It is NOT a zero sum game. The brokerage houses and market makers make commissions on each and every "trade" we make, to the tune of billions of dollars per year. We pay them. And when we allow ourselves to be convinced to dump the great companies and run to refuge with the safe ones. . .it is a victory for the big guys. . .at our ultimate expense.
This weekend we will no doubt read how A.T. and T. has made a "terrible mistake" in judgment by going after cable companies with their billions. We've already heard that AMZN is going to bomb. We have heard that EBAY is a joke. This weekend, we will hear something like "the lights are on, but nobody's @Home."
Wall Street is the Wild West. ANYTHING the big money must do. . .any bribe, any lie, any dirt they can dredge up, to suit their "bigger purpose" is fair. And truly anything goes.
Their current motive is to SHAKE shares of the best internets from the hands of the "weak". . . those that cannot afford to take the loss. . . so they must sell, because they read something in a "respected" newspaper. Selling is driven by fear. . .buying by hope.
"Sell the internets before you lose all your money." Yeah, right. . . A while back it was Network Solutions losing their monopoly on domain names, so we were led to fear NSOL would be headed back to single digits, by analysts in TV interviews. Yet there was no mention of the fact that Network Solutions will be getting a percentage of all the revenue generated by domain names.
The TRUE revelation is this:
The internet in its many forms is here to stay. . .and the set-top box will bring it into EVERY home in America.
Now do you want to be on the sidelines holding Caterpillar and Alcoa in fear of being a loser? Or do you want to be standing in the light with those that didn't waiver, knowing you stuck-to-your-guns? When Wall Street reverses direction and suddenly Sunday's papers read how the Next Generation Internet is the biggest communications revolution since the Alexander Graham Bell's telephone. . . do you want to read that story with a big smile on your face, knowing that you are well-positioned to profit from market moves in favor of N. G. I. that day? Or be the one paying those premiums and scrambling to get back in at a higher price?
In my years of marketing and sales at Viewtron, America's first on-line service, I saw first hand, the difference the set-top box makes. Today we see a single person sitting at their computer. . .but with the set-top box, the whole family is together on their sofa in front of their TV set with remote control keypads. And because of the ease of use, lives were changed.
The set-top box will do for the internet, what the television did for the radio. It will bring motion and life to what were previously just words.
|"Yes, there will be a changing of the guard. And as Independent On-line Investors, it is "our" job to find those winners now and take our positions while the internet is getting creamed both by the press and by the street. "|
Aside from jumping out of all internets on April 15th, until they hit bottom. . . .over the past 3-4 months, I have publicly been down on E-commerce companies too. This is due to market saturation and the revenue dilution that it brings.
But there will be clear winners, when this communications revolution takes hold. Today, the CLEAR winners are difficult to see. We need to expand our thinking. Broaden our vision. And include in the picture both companies and services we know and those we have never even imagined, taking part and thriving in this all new arena.
For instance, why has Wal-Mart waited so long to unveil their "Internet Initiative"? My guess is that they are not bothering with the old-technology internet with its limited bandwidth and small percentage of users. . .but rather I believe this retailing empire is following the example set by A.T. and T. and is fully focused on the Next-Generation Internet and the many opportunities it presents. Could this better explain why Amazon.com has been so obsessed with Wal-Mart's internet plans of late? . . .to the point of pushing Wal-Mart to sue them over it?
Yes, there will be a changing of the guard. And as Independent On-line Investors, it is "our" job to find those winners now and take our positions while the internet is getting creamed both by the press and by the street.
Nobody is going to tell us which ones to buy. We need to do our due diligence and dig up the data and dare to be different. Think of it this way: We are merely loading up with the finest winter coats at bargain basement prices during the red-hot summer sale. And don't think for a moment that we are alone in our quest. Look who's trying on that charcoal gray full-length Armani cashmere. Why it's none other than the publishers of that Amazon.bomb story themselves.