Post of the Day
June 14, 1999

From our
Pfizer Folder

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Subject: S&P fair value = $90
Author: clmcadams

Dear board,

I just read my S&P reports that gave Pfizer a fair value of $90.20. Last month it was $106. I guess the threat of increasing interest rates has made Pfizer a little less attractive to Wall Street.

If only some Smart person would tell us the exact price that Pfizer will fall to, we wouldn't have to look at the drug pipeline or FDA concerns, or government imposed cost limits. We could just wait until the price hit that magic number and invest.

I wish someone out there could impart some knowledge on us so that we could all stop guessing. I feel so Foolish for having bought in earlier at a higher price for this obviously overvalued business. How could I have been so blind?

There were brilliant analysts (at least one) out there telling me to sell at 140 (after the fact but nonetheless, sell). Did I listen? No, I thought I was going to make a lot of money over the next 30 years, but that's obviously not going to happen now that S&P has given Pfizer a new value of $90. Maybe I should sell my shares at a loss and wait for this new target of $90/share to roll around.

Maybe I should just give up investing and let some smarter, more-educated Fund Manager deal with it. Clearly, I just don't have the training to track moving targets and k's and EBITDA's and beta's and r2's. I should have seen the C3PO (Current 3 decade projected outcome) analysis on this stock was just the pits.

I just don't have the wizardry to come up with a detailed analysis of Pfizer like all the Masters of Business Administration do. Sure they'll take 1.5% of my money every year if I put it in a Fund, but wouldn't that be worth it if I didn't have to sort through all the guesses on this board? Wouldn't that be worth it if I didn't have to follow this company's progress and learn useless things about the pharmaceutical industry and new drug developments that help save people's lives? Wouldn't I be a lot better off if I just stuck to my job and ignored the markets completely?

Oh well, I'll just hold and see what my return is in 30 years. I'm just a Foolish guesser. Maybe my other investments will make up for Pfizer's meltdown.