Post of the Day
February 9, 2000

Board Name:
Cisco Systems

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Subject:  NOBODY Should Sell This Stock
Author:  GettingRicher

First, let me apologize for the self-aggrandizing username. I picked it after a million others failed.

Anyway, I tread carefully, since I was crucified in my two other posts on different boards by oh-so-angry people.

But the reason, I believe, that they were so angry is that they took/take REMARKABLY short-term perspectives in their stocks. We do not seem to have investors anymore, just a bunch of day- or week- or month-traders.

I, too, have fallen into the trap a couple of times, because there is SO much information out there that it seems any time you get excited about a company, there's an analyst's opinion that provides compelling evidence for your misplaced enthusiasm.

I am amazed, however, by the number of posts I've read on this excellent site over the last year or so that are along the lines of "Geez, I just bought XCompany at $137 and now it's $136 and change. Time to sell?" I'm also dumbfounded at how so many people are in a rush to take some profits off the table--in essence, timing the market.

I firmly believe that such timing is strictly for the pros. It has been my experience, time and time and time again, that timing stock ups and downs is the same as driving fast to get somewhere: every time, without fail, that I've passed people, taken shortcuts and so on to get to some important destination, I always wind up with Grandma Twomilesanhour, who I passed in a frenzy and perhaps flipped off, either pulling up next to me, behind me, or in some particularly humiliating instances, in front of me.

I'm sure I've said this on some board somewhere, but it's worth repeating here: It's been said that the only people who made money during the California Gold Rush were the ones who made picks and shovels. Cisco makes the Internet's picks and shovels. Why the heck would anybody EVER sell this company? Sure the stock is too high right now. Will it correct? Who knows? Who cares? The reality is, you're not buying it at $125 a share; you're buying it, split adjusted, for a zillion times more than that. So a few bumps in the road won't make a difference.

If you're thinking of selling your stock in this company, in my opinion, you're plain crazy. If THIS amazing company isn't worth your long-term interest, than what company could be?

For you young investors (and I'm only 38, but I'm talking to the 23-year-olds who I suspect frequent these boards), take a piece of advice: KEEP your money in this company, and when you're my age, you'll be sitting on a nice bundle. When you're 50, you'll be sitting on a huge bundle. And believe me, any short-term gains you'll make by selling and then repurchasing will be more than off-set by the surges you'll miss.

You don't have to ignore the explosive valuations of Internet stocks; by all means, throw a few bucks into them (although I think all the easy money has been made). Just don't judge the performance of your long-term buys next to them. If you invest regularly, don't waste your money chasing the latest technology on everything from toasters to t.v.'s, and can get 15% a year for 30 years, you'll be in damn good shape.

I'm signing this

Long-on-Cisco-'til-I-retire,

John

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