Post of the Day
March 2, 2000
Rule Breaker Companies
Posts selected for this feature rarely stand alone. They are usually a part of an ongoing thread, and are out of context when presented here. The material should be read in that light.
In The Year 2010
The following is an exercise I like to call Forward Thinking. If you're not up to date on what companies are looking to provide in the future, you may want to consider this exercise to help you imagine what may be an important and emerging industry.
This is merely an excercise to help improve your long-term thinking. It should not be used to pick stocks blindly. I don't completely believe that this is what the future will be like, but it does help me decide about what industries I might want to research.
As usual, think about industry leaders and how they plan on making money. Realize that you may be way off on your predictions, but do as much research as possible to try and stay on target.
Here's what I imagined in a simple scenario. It heavily favors my view of the future of Celera, but there are plenty of other companies in there. You should be able to guess what stocks I have been keeping an eye on...
The year is 2010. Your "AOL-Buddy" wakes you up at precisely 8:30AM to a classic "Red Hot Chili Peppers" song. You feel extremely well rested. It turns out your not a morning person. It runs in the family because you lack a specific gene. But, your doctor says if you increase your intake of Vitamin B1 in your normal diet you may be able to counteract that tiresome feeling a bit. Luckily you were able to figure all of this out from your latest Celera Genomic Review and already your George Foreman Oven added the extra B1 to your dinner last night. The review only cost $1000 a year, but the good-night sleep was...priceless.
You ask your AOL-Buddy to order the 10AM newspaper and upload it to your Xerox/3M Gyricon Websheet for your daily commute. You also ask it to upload a selection of your favorite tunes to your Sony Flash-Memory Stick. It's a thin stick that slides into your Sony MP3-Man and you'll be able to listen to digital tunes en route to work. Your headphones don't require wires since the earpiece translates the nano-amp currents that run along your skin from the MP3-Man in your shoe. You're computer knows how to recognize your voice and it's commands from a helpful piece of software from Lernout & Hauspie. What would you do without voice recognition? You don't think about this because you're already heading off to the shower.
"Computer! What is the forecast for today? Have Instyle.com cross-reference my calendar and local forecast to pick my outfit."
The AOL-Buddy replies, "The high of 53 degrees is expected today around 1PM. About an inch of rain is expected between 6:30PM and 10:00PM. Temperatures will fall to 30 degrees during the late evening. Your clothes will be waiting in the usual spot in your closet. I suggest that you wear your Calvin Klein boots and black J. Crew overcoat to compliment today's clothing selection."
Meanwhile, your Healtheon/WebMD Toilet asks you if you'd like to analyze today's sample and upload your data for review. You hesitate, but agree...reluctantly.
You get dressed, strap on your Palm wrist watch and say into it, "reschedule my appointment with Doctor Wilson to 3PM, and make a reservation at Delmonico's for two at 7PM. Invite Jane, and upload the directions and menu to her Palm Watch."
The GPS locator inside her Palm Watch will get her there no mater where she is in the city. You chose Delmonico's because Jane let you in on a secret. Her tastebuds love really good Italian food and although she's never tried black linguine, her Celera Review says she'll love it with a little fresh basil.
Your Palm Watch announces, "Appointment rescheduled and confirmed...Dinner reservation for two at Delmonico's confirmed. Invitation has been extended to Jane...Directions uploaded."
You sit down to eat your corn flakes and your customized daily multivitamins have already been added to your juice automatically. The computer in your refrigerator knows you need extra Vitamin E, Magnesium and Carotene because your Celera Review told your doctor that an increase in these will safeguard you against certain diseases in the long-run. It also asks you if you'd like to order a refill on liquid vitamin additive from Amazon.com.
This reminds you that your visit with Doc Wilson will require you to give him access to your genetic records. "Raise screen" you order, and a Philips HD Flat screen rises from within the table in front of you. "Please link to my.celera.com, login 432-87-1732, password **********"
"Accessing records......Secure link established," your computer tells you.
Ah yes. Your genetic database. "Release all level 1 genetic data to Doctor Wilson's office for today only."
"Do you wish to pay the $5.00 surcharge for this transaction?"
"Doctor Wilson has received genetic data for allergies, respiratory, cancer and other level 1 information."
While you're logged into your database you think that now would be a good time to browse a few job listings before heading out to work. You call up hotjobs.com and download the database for your city. "Computer, cross-reference job listings with Genetic Strengths listings. You've elected to keep your Genetic Weakness listings unviewable even to you. Even though you're sure you're not a math whiz, you'd rather not know for sure. Since Celera is a big supporter of genetic privacy so you feel confident cross-referencing your data knowing that it never leaves your computer. But, it's time for work, so you'll have to finish checking later...
[later that day at Doc Wilson's office]
"Well son, it looks like you've done a good job of keeping your cholesterol levels down. As you know, you're genetic data puts you in the high-risk category for prostate cancer and heart disease. Not to worry though. We'll keep a careful lookout for any signs of abnormal cell growth and if you keep up your daily regimen, you should be just fine. Your life expectancy is right up there with the best of them."
Another good check-up. Everything is right on the line. You're running a little late though. You got caught up in a conversation about the future of medicine with Doc Wilson. He says that generic medication will be a thing of the past one day. Of course, your children will benefit from this the most, but the major pharmaceutical companies have been using Celera's powerful tools for years to help create customizable medication for individuals. Now Celera has about 5 super-computing centers throughout the United States with two in Europe and one outside of Tokyo. By the time customizable medication is commonplace, the Doc hopes health care will be reformed and everyone can benefit.
Hmmm...you think as you step into a fuel-cell cab and whiz back to work. You knew Celera held your genomic data, butyou didn't realize what they had in store for the next few decades. Sounds like Celera would be a good stock for the long-term. You tell your Palm wrist watch to upload the latest Fool.com research report to your computer at home.
[later that evening at Delmonico's]
You and Jane have a wonderful dinner, and you discuss your visit to the doctor's office. You mention the future of customizable medication to her, but she seems not to care much. Then you mention to her that Celera can cross-reference both of your genomic data and tell you what traits your offspring would have a chance of inheriting. She seems a little intrigued.
Back at your place, the two of you log in and begin the hypothetical offspring calculator program. Quick reflexes, good muscle and bone strength are a high probability, but there's a good chance your kids will be tone deaf. You'll keep that in mind and not force them to take piano lessons unless they ask. If it's a male, he'll probably be over 6 feet tall, and if it's a female, over 5'7". Good math and quantitative abilities, but difficulty with foreign languages. You decide not to analyze it too much. After all, you'll let your kids figure it out on their own just like you did. Besides you've decided to order a movie on the old AOL-TV before heading off to bed. Good thing you decide to have a glass of milk after the movie, and your refrigerator didn't even forget to add the B1.
|Liked this post?
Read more posts by this author.
More Recommended Posts