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By Hallucigenia
August 9, 2001

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Following Steve's recent links, I thought it would be interesting to compile some of the data on market shares that we've been seeing.

Useful sources are:

  • Gartner
    (Their 'Mobile Centre' needs registration, press releases don't.)
  • European market data.

    Europe

    Gartner's view of Q2 2001:

    Western European PDA Unit Shipment Estimates for 2Q01 (Units)


    2Q01 2Q00
    Comp. Ship Share(%) Ship Share(%) Growth Palm 164,029 32.3 282,117 59.5 -41.9% Compaq 153,112 30.2 21,100 4.5 +625.6% Psion 49,925 9.8 86,000 18.2 -41.9% Handsp 41,656 8.2 20,000 4.2 +108.3% HP 33,135 6.5 37,381 7.9 -11.4% Casio 19,855 3.9 4,400 0.9 +351.3% IBM 8,157 1.6 7,130 1.5 +14.4% Others 37,550 7.4 15,700 3.3 +139.2% Total 507,419 100.0 473,828 100.0 +7.1%


    (Source: Gartner)

    And looking at operating systems as a whole:

    Western European PDA Operating Systems Estimates for 2Q01 (Units)

    
                2Q01             2Q00
    OS       Ship Share(%)  Ship  Share(%)  Growth
      
    Palm OS 214,842  42.3  310,097   65.4    -30.7%
    Win CE  207,402  40.9   63,581   13.4   +226.2%
    Epoc     50,725  10.0   86,480   18.3    -41.3%
    Others   34,450   6.8   13,670    2.9   +152.0%
    

    The Canalys data includes mobile devices:

    Western Europe mobile device market
    Market shares Q2 2001, Q2 2000

    
              2Q01            2Q00

    Vendor Ship Share(%) Ship Share(%) Growth Palm 164,175 25.9 250,500 49.9 -34% Compaq 162,050 25.5 22,100 4.4 +633% Nokia 67,240 10.6 63,726 12.7 +6% Psion 44,355 7.0 82,260 16.4 -46% Hand. 43,230 6.8 15,490 3.1 +179% Eric. 34,460 5.4 - - - HP 33,165 5.2 17,295 3.4 +92% Casio 32,000 5.0 37,925 7.6 -16% Sony 19,510 3.1 - - - Olivetti 9,597 1.5 - - - IBM 8,157 1.3 7,207 1.4 +13% Other 16,850 2.7 5,690 1.1 +196% Total 634,789 100.0 502,193 100.0 26%

    Canalys don't do a formal table of OS sales, but indicate that it looks something like this:

    OS        Share
    Palm OS    37%
    Windows CE 33%
    Epoc       21%
    Others      9%
    

    Kinda interesting to note that growth in shipments of non-wireless PDAs has slowed to just 6% on Gartner's figures, but that if you include wireless devices, the growth rate jumps to 26%. Obviously it's hard to directly compare the figures, but interesting nonetheless. 2001Q1 figures are at Canalys- Palm had 41% of a market of 840k devices, and PalmOS had 50.7% share.

    In another survey, Canalys predict that smartphones + feature phones will overtake non-wireless devices in Europe in two years time.
    US market share

    For this, we have to rely on Gartner's non-wireless figures for U.S. PDA Unit Shipments:
    
               2Q01            2Q00
    Comp. Ship Share(%) Ship Share(%) Growth Palm 509,000 40.0 1,050,000 54.2 -51.5% Hand. 220,000 17.3 421,000 21.7 -47.7% Compaq 204,000 16.0 144,000 7.4 +41.7% HP 106,000 8.4 58,000 3.0 +82.8% RIMM 105,000 8.2 147,000 7.6 -28.6% Others 129,000 10.1 119,000 6.1 +8.4% Total 1,273,000 100.0 1,938,000 100.0 -34.3%

    Source: Gartner

    Rest of the World market share
    I'm sure someone can do the numbers from the two Gartner continental tables and the following global one, but by my reckoning, Palm have 22.1% of the ROW market of 1,016,000 devices.

    Global market share

    The same Gartner report as the US figures gives us Worldwide PDA Unit Shipment Estimates:


    2Q01 2Q00
    Comp. Ship Share(%) Ship Share(%) Growth
    Palm 898,000 32.1 1,790,000 50.4 -49.8% Compaq 450,000 16.1 278,000 7.8 +61.9% Hands. 300,000 10.7 565,000 15.9 -46.9% HP 193,000 6.9 130,000 3.7 +48.5% RIMM 115,000 4.1 163,000 4.6 +41.7% HTW* 110,000 3.9 39,000 1.1 +182.1% Others 730,000 26.1 585,000 16.5 +24.8% Tot. 2,796,000 100.0 3,550,000 100.0 -21.2% *HiTechWealth

    Obviously all these figures are subject to the caveat mentioned previously, that shipments are not the same as sales, but for the time being these are the best comparable figures we have.

    I hadn't heard of Hi Tech Wealth either ;-), but they're the largest indigenous PDA maker in China. This is relevant in the context of a trend-spotting IDC report forecasting shipments of 71m by 2005, up from 13.6m in 2000. "The U.S. market represents the largest opportunity for handheld device vendors, accounting for 49% of worldwide shipments in 2000. However, U.S. shipments will grow slower than the overall market, and by 2005 U.S. share will decline to 38%. Shipments in Asia/Pacific will increase the fastest, earning a 2000-2005 compound annual growth rate of 60%." There's some comment on this: "regional manufacturers in Asia, such as Hi-Tech Wealth and Minren, will have the best opportunity to expand their share of the handheld market and that devices with the Palm or Microsoft Pocket PC operating systems have about equal chances of succeeding there."

    It also mentions that the corporate market will be a key driver for growth in North America : "Large companies are still buying handhelds, but the future is the Asia-Pacific region..." Gartner agree on this: "The corporate market offers the greatest opportunity for PDA vendors. There have been strong consumer shipments in the past, but the consumer market is much less profitable and is not likely to grow as fast as the corporate market. PDA vendors that do not have a strong enterprise strategy will miss out on the bulk of market growth over the next year.....The corporate market is not yet seeing many 500-plus unit purchases, but this market is poised for tremendous growth as packet-switched wireless e-mail capabilities are added next year."

    So, the big growth areas are Asia and corporate deployment in the West. Palm is strongest in the US, which is a big market that is declining in importance, and weakest in Asia. The corporate market is set to grow massively, based on the use of packet data networks - Symbian and Compaq will have GPRS devices out by the autumn. AIUI, PalmOS won't be able to handle packet data until PalmOS 5.0 comes out, sometime in mid-to-late 2002 - correct me if I am wrong?

    Incidentally, I wonder if some of the clashes on this board are a result of citizens of one country seeing historical penetration of PalmOS devices up round the 80% mark (and extrapolating that into global domination?), whereas the Europeans see PalmOS with just 37% of their domestic market, and place much more emphasis on wireless capability, a weakness for Palm. What the Rest of the Worlders think of these claims of Palm domination, with just 22% of the marketplace, I don't know!

    Fool on

    H
    [long PON.L, no position in Palm, Handspring etc]