Extremum Mobility Principle
and Connected PD

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By gargelkark
February 4, 2002

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this is my first post on this board. The $30 fee in sight, I decided to switch modes from lurking to posting. If it's fun, I'll sign up. Until now it definitely is fun...

You main question was:
Will MSFT be the dominant OS provider for wireless devices in the future?

I do not think so:

1. Nokia is in direct competition with Microsoft, and it is not Symbian vs. Pocket PC. It's "Club Nokia" vs. .NET, especially the Passport and Hailstorm part. One of the major growth hopes for Nokia besides hardware is "mobile services": A billing service, online gaming, identity service and so on. All this is in direct danger if MSFT holds the key to the Internet. Using a Passport account every time you do a transaction with your mobile phone, that's Nokia's nightmare. No surprise Nokia was one of the founding members of the Liberty alliance, which basically is an industry consortium whose members do not want MSFT to own all identities in the Internet. Brought to life by Scott McNealy from SUNW, today supported by Nokia, Vodaphone, AOL, Visa, Amex... all the big names.

So as long as Pocket PC comes with a .NET client (which it does today) urging (=making it easier for) the user to use Passport and Hailstorm for mobile commerce, I do not expect Nokia will adopt it. They would automatically say goodbye to their services division and reduce themselves to a hardware provider (the DELL of mobile). According to their slides they presented at capital markets day last year, this is definitely not the way they want to go.

2. Almost every new mobile phone and wireless PDA in 2002 will have a Java virtual machine build-in. Java has all chances to become the API of choice for mobile applications. Mainly because it has this "always connected" feature designed into the language.

Java was not successful on the PC desktop because the Windows API was already there. For mobile devices, no dominant API has emerged yet (Palm? EPOC?, Pocket PC?). For connected mobile devices, Java seems to become just that: The dominant API.

For Pocket PC this means that the application push that made Windows a monopoly on the desktop is not there for connected mobile devices and probably will never be.

My 2 cents



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