Analyst Analysis

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By Bdaz
October 28, 2004

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Here's a couple of blasts from the past to remind all to not get panicky when one of these guys lets fly with some Wisdom: They stand as proof that this board (in general) knows this subject far better than some of these pros. The first is Courtesy of the AOL board from a poster who keeps track of the MS calls:

They have an analyst (Lou Gehardy), who may be over his head and just bullheaded when it comes to wireless.

His prior *call* on QCOM was January 16, 2004 when he cut QCOM's rating from Overweight to Equal Weight. At that time QCOM price was at $29+. That was 5 days before QCOM released earnings on 1/21/2004, which proved him wrong back then. He missed the 51 % rise in the stock price from January. Apparently, today the market is telling him he's wrong once again.

Here's a fun one from JP Morgan from a year ago. Funny but this is the one of the same tired old reasons used by the MS guy yesterday: "believes new competitors in the CDMA chip market could threaten the company's market position." How many more times will we hear this one?

12:01pm 09/30/03
Qualcomm dips as J.P. Morgan initiates at 'underweight' (NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Shares of Qualcomm (QCOM) slid $1.24, or 2.9 percent, to $42.10 after J.P. Morgan initiated the wireless technologies company with an "underweight" rating. Analyst Ehud Gelblum believes new competitors in the CDMA (code division multiple access) chip market could threaten the company's market position. He also anticipates average selling prices declining on chips, as leading to flat revenue despite an increase in volume amid growing handset sales to China and India.

And from Bank of America this downgrade from April 1st, before split:

04.01.04, 9:30 AM ET

Banc of America Securities downgraded Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM - news - people ) to "neutral" from "buy" and also cut earnings estimates and the 12-month target price. Banc of America said that although handset fundamentals "remain positive," the momentum will slow after the March quarter and could lead to "multiple contraction" on moderating earnings-per-share growth. The research firm cut the fiscal 2004 earnings estimate to $1.78 per share from $1.80

The worst part of this was that in April any fool could see we were well on the way to busting their old estimate of $1.80. It now looks like they were so far off it is ridiculous. BTW they stated their price target was $60 pre split.

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