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The BMW Method
Jim Cramer Blows me Away!

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By BuildMWell
September 27, 2005

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I have CNBC playing in the background because I was too busy to change the channel. I just heard two different rages from Jim Cramer that make me glad I have the BMW Method working for me. If I did not know better, I might actually believe his rantings. Either he is an idiot or I am. Time will tell which of us is the one.

First, he was screaming that Halliburton, "Even at $65/share is a steal!" He recommends Haliburton stock almost every night. Meanwhile I sold the majority of my HAL about a month ago.

Here is what blows me away. In 2002, Jim Cramer was very negative about HAL and wrote many times that he would stay away from it. At the same time, I was backing up the truck at under $11/share. I remember his negative hype because it scared me a great deal...could he be right? Could I be that wrong?

Since then, I have never heard a single peep out of Jim Cramer concerning Halliburton...not a word. That is, until the last two months...about the time I was starting to sell my shares. Suddenly he was real hot on HAL. He hated it at $10/share but now loves it at $60/share. Something isn't right with this picture.

Now, in all honesty, I would have made more money if I had believed Cramer last month and held on longer. But, if I had listened to him in 2002, I would never have owned any HAL to begin with. The shares have gained over $9/share since I started selling which is about what I paid per share for my lowest priced ones. I could have made a better gain if I had been more patient and pushed the envelope. However, I see nothing compelling about holding HAL any longer...maybe some of you can show me what is so attractive about this stock at $65/share. I just do not see it.

Then, as I sat here thinking how wrong Jim Cramer had been about Haliburton three years ago and again today, I heard a caller ask him about Avon. My ears perked up...we were just buying AVP here yesterday.

Cramer began by screaming at the caller, "What are you thinking? SELL, SELL, SELL, SELL!" He told his caller that Avon management, "Could get nothing right and they were heading for the tank." The caller was ridiculed for even considering AVP. Cramer closed the discussion by reiterating his recommendation, "SELL, SELL, SELL!"

But, that was exactly what he said about HAL in 2002. Thus, I am encouraged about Avon Product's future. If Cramer holds true to form, we will pocket a swell CAGR by owning AVP at the low CAGR. He will be screaming, "BUY, BUY, BUY!" as the stock goes above $75/share.

What scares me is there seem to be lots of people who think Jim Cramer hung the moon. He must be right once in while...but I have not found an example yet in any stock that I was interested in. I think I will just ignore him and believe my own due diligence and the BMW Method. That seems to work the best for me.


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