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By r15hz8
September 5, 2008

Posts selected for this feature rarely stand alone. They are usually a part of an ongoing thread, and are out of context when presented here. The material should be read in that light. How are these posts selected? Click here to find out and nominate a post yourself!

OK, so today did not go as I had hoped. I certainly did not see a 15% drop coming. And because of what? Folsom says he needs a few weeks to issue a ruling. OK.

I am guessing that Folsom is giving DISH every last opportunity to come to the table.

But what I want to know is why the DirecTV news didn't generate more interest. By my own numbers, from what has been published, I come up with roughly 2 million DirecTV accounts with 'legacy' DirecTV/TiVo units. And as long as DirecTV has been pushing their HD lineup, and their own HD DVR, this group of 2 million customers makes me think that they are holdouts; folks that still wanted TiVo with DirecTV. So, I'm thinking most, if not all, of these folks will jump on the new DirecTV/HD TiVo.

And we read that DirecTV will have to pay TiVo a minimum fee in licensing, and it escalates. And that minimum is 'substantially' more than the current licensing rate for DirecTV. So it's a lot more than $1. Maybe it's $2. I think we just found out that TiVo is seeking $2.25 from Dish, so I think $2 is a safe estimation from DirecTV.

Now here is the simple math. $2 * 2 million per month revenue from DirecTV. And if DirecTV lives up to their end of the deal, they will do their part in marketing the new HD TiVo. So I'm thinking that number grows.

As much as TiVo has been hammered by the sour relationship with DirecTV, it strikes me ironic that as the relationship clearly sweetens that the opposite reaction does not occur.