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Ford Motor Co.
Gut Feeling for the Future

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By TMFBreakerRob
October 9, 2009

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Just in case you have somebody ask you, U.S. Market shares for 2009 through September:

Ford 15.6, +1.1
GM 19.5, -2.7
Chrysler 9.0, -1.8
Toyota 16.3, -0.1
Honda 11.1, +0.3
Nissan 7.3, +0.1
Other 21.2, +3.1

I don't have the data handy, but the big winner this year is hidden in that "other" category: Hyundai. They are making very impressive gains....much better than anybody else.

On a related note, F-Series has increased its 2009 market share by 3%, to 35%. I would expect the newly announced Super Duty and its new Diesel engine....to do very well. I would note that F-Series (and Super Duty in particular) are very profitable products, so I think they could be big profit centers next year if the economy doesn't tank further.

Also, the new Taurus is doing very, very well....and people are buying them with plenty of upgrades. Ford has got to be making a lot of money on them as well.

We'll have to wait and see what the 3rd and 4th quarter earnings numbers will be, of course. They won't be impressive in terms of absolute numbers, but I'm hoping they show continued solid improvement. Yeah, "hope" is a poor substitute for "know" or "expect" in the investment world, but that's what we've got with FoMoCo.

I've got a fairly large percentage of my portfolio in the common stock...and that's because of limitations in my 401k. I expect Ford stock to do better than the mutual fund and money market alternatives that I have as an employee of the company. That expectation is based not on some impressive earnings and/or cash flow numbers.....just based on an expectation that Ford will continue to do better than the "investment community" expects. That's not hard quantitative analysis....its more of a gut feel based on industry and company knowledge coupled with a number of years of investing.

I wouldn't expect that to necessarily convince anybody else, but that's OK. I need only convince myself.

I wish I had more for folks.....

Rob
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