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Eros International (ESGC)
Q4 2018 Earnings Conference Call
Jun. 27, 2018 8:30 a.m. ET
Contents:
- Prepared Remarks
- Questions and Answers
- Call Participants
Prepared Remarks:
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Eros International Plc's fiscal year-end 2018 earnings conference call. This call is being broadcast live on the Internet, and a replay of the call will be available on the company's website. This morning, the company published its earnings press release on its website, erosplc.com. The company would like to remind everyone listening that during this call, it will be making forward-looking statements under the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. The company's actual results may differ materially from those projected under forward-looking statements.
During the call, the company will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures in talking about its performance. You can find a reconciliation of these measures to the GAAP financial measures in this company's press release. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Kishore Lulla, executive chairman and CEO of Eros International Plc. Please go ahead, sir.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning. First of all, let me thank everyone for joining our call today and especially thank our loyal shareholders for your continued support. You should be extremely proud of your company's team, who is working tirelessly to help us gain the dominant position within a leading share of Indian OTT film content and present you with solid set of results this financial year, cementing our future growth in a dynamic, buoyant industry. Eros remains the only fully vertically integrated independent studio model within the industry, with the largest library and over 30% market share of the top 100 box office hits over the last decade.
Our large library and ability to monetize it through our distribution network has always been the core strength at the heart of our company and the people. This has been increasingly evident as major U.S. studios entered into the market. During this time, we not only maintained our leadership position, but also contributed to the 18% CAGR growth of the industry.
Also, library being the key contributor to our success within the emerging digital India, making us continue content consolidation across generals and Indian languages. As we continue to pioneer within the space, Eros Now exceeded paying subscribers equivalent or more to the population of the state of Washington and showcased tremendous triple-digit growth over the past year itself, truly turning our company into a consumer brand spanning across generations worldwide. With the growth of the 3G, 4G market and more partnerships coming in, you can only expect us to go further. Earlier this year, we announced our $150 million joint venture with Reliance, which will top up our existing slate and plan of digital platform.
We are bound to make new strides on the digital and content forefronts to fuel both theatrical and digital premieres. I believe that our strong balance sheet, our market leadership and our differentiated business strategy gives us a powerful and sustainable competitive advantage to take on the new investments in the cutting-edge original content, as we consolidate our position within the rapidly growing Indian media and entertainment sector. I once again want to thank everyone for their continued support for -- on our growth journey. Now I would like to hand over the call to Rishika Lulla, CEO of Eros Now.
Rishika Lulla -- Chief Executive Officer of Eros Now
Thank you, Kishore. It gives me great pleasure to address you all today. Eros Now has had a tremendous journey over the years. The space and dynamic of the industry itself has made itself over numerous times, and I'm proud to say, Eros Now has contributed to Indian digital entertainment ecosystem.
We have been able to achieve a reach of 7.9 million paid subscribers with over 100 million registered users, adopting a strong distribution principal at the core of our strategy. Our wide reach across leading worldwide brands, such as LG, Roku, Vodafone, Paytm, and many more have enabled us to reach this scale. With only 7% of digital video consumption in English and 93% across Hindi and other Indian languages, we have an exclusive slate of over 50 premieres planned for FY '19 over Eros Now. Our qualitative metrics, driven from our strong, diversified content mix and strategy, are also very strong, wherein one out of every five users end up watching the entire duration of the video.
Once a user has crossed the three-second benchmark, the average time spent is 40 minutes on the service. The most engaged viewer visits the service at least three times a week. These are all well above almost 100% of the country's industry average as reported by FICCI. Aside from being above the industry average, we are also above average time spent per session for IPL digital viewership.
We believe these are driven by our strong library and mix of digital premieres. These phenomenal results are also attributed to Eros Now being the most engaged social media brand in the digital video business, with less than 1% dropout on the service from Instagram and Facebook, and driving active weekly and monthly viewers in 50 countries around the world. Apart from the Indian diaspora abroad, in India, with Internet penetration growing and urbanization now becoming a reality across the entire country, our aim is to be the source of entertainment in 100 cities vis-a-vis the current 50 cities, an exponential 100% jump to capture our right audiences at the inception of digitization, which will, in turn, help us in taking the leap for the next upcoming year. I'll now pass you on to Prem Parameswaran, our CFO.
Prem Parameswaran -- Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Rishika. Good morning to everyone again, and thank you for joining us again on our earnings call. This has been a momentous year for Eros. Let me just touch on some of the major financial highlights, then we'll go into questions.
We ended the year with $88 million of cash on our balance sheet, not including the approximately $48 million in new capital raised by Reliance earlier this year. We announced in February that Reliance agreed to acquire a 5% equity stake in Eros at a price of $15 per share, which represented an 18% premium to our share price at the time. Our net leverage ratio has reduced from 2.8 times to 1.8 times on a pro forma basis, and the majority of our debt have a long-term maturity profile, which means we have no material amount of debt maturing over the next two years. This year, we generated $261 million in top-line revenues, compared to $253 million in the last fiscal year, which represents an increase of 3.3%. Our fourth-quarter revenue growth was even higher at 36%, helped by a strong performance from our Eros Now business and increased catalog sales.
Adjusted EBITDA for the year was $78.6 million, compared to $55.7 million last year, which represents an increase of 41%. We had previously guided the market toward an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30%. We are pleased to have achieved this year and expect margin improvement to continue over the coming year. The investments in premium content and distribution networks we have made over the past few years are now clearly showing in our P&L, as evidenced by our revenue growth and improved operating margins across the board.
Our digital and ancillary business had a particularly strong year, generating $85 million, compared to $65 million last fiscal year, which represents a growth rate of 33%. This year was the strongest performance ever for our digital and ancillary business, which for the first time, generated more revenue than our theatrical business. This was largely due to the contribution from our growing Eros Now platform. Our theatrical business generated $79.1 million in revenue this year, based on 24 releases, compared to $101 million last year.
As of March 31, 2018, our Eros Now platform had over 100 million registered users and 7.9 million paying subscribers. The acceleration of 4G subscriber growth across India and continued consumer demand for compelling content provides strong tailwinds for our business. We want to reiterate our guidance of doubling our paid sub base over the fiscal year and therefore, 16 million paying subscribers by fiscal year-end 2019, which, by the way, we think we are very -- pardon me, by the way, we are extremely confident of achieving and perhaps surpassing that goal. We are very excited about the inflection point that our Eros Now business has now passed. This year, we spent $187 million on content, slightly above our earlier guidance.
Given the opportunity in the OTT space and the outsized returns we generate given our platform, we felt and continue to feel that investing in premium cutting-edge content will generate the best returns for our shareholders. Our guidance for content spend for the next fiscal year is increasing to $250 million, a significant portion of which will be for Eros Now as well as the new investments made through our content joint venture with Reliance. We remain committed to improving our working capital position and are targeting to bring down our DSO days to 200, 250 level by the next fiscal year. Given the shorter collection cycle in the digital business and the increased revenue expected from our theatrical business, the change in our revenue mix will go a long way to achieving that end.
In any case, we have dedicated, significant internal resources on collections, which will help bring down our longer-dated receivables. Just recapping, top-line revenue growth. Eros Now at 8 million paying subscribers and 100 million registered users and expected to grow rapidly over the next year. EBITDA of approximately $80 million with a 30% EBITDA margin and a strong financial partnership with Reliance.
We believe we are poised for tremendous growth as we become one of the world's strongest premium content OTT players.T hanks for listening. And we can now take your questions.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you. [Operator instructions] We will take our first question from Jigar Shah from Maybank. Please go ahead.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
Good morning, everyone, and congrats to the good set of numbers for the fourth quarter.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Jigar.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
My question, straight going to first the theatrical part of the business. The pipeline that you have put out, how is it going to get distributed between you and Reliance, whether all the movies that are mentioned will go into the joint-production model or there are certain movies, which will be done by Eros and certain movies within the joint-production venture?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
OK. Jigar, this is Kishore here. So basically, let me explain to you that there are many movies which have been in production since the last one year or two years and which are going to release this year are going to be part of Eros productions itself. And the JV has been formed already, and I think there will be certain movies out of these movies which could go into the joint venture, which we are having our management meetings.
But not only that, there are about 8 to 10 movies we have identified out of the slate, which you have seen today, which will be part of the JV, which should be finalized in the next one or two weeks. We have already finalized the terms with those production houses, and we have an agreement that -- how do we move forward on that so that we will be on top of that. And you know how the JV works. Basically, we fund 50-50.
They fund 50%, we fund 50%, and Eros distributes the product. Eros gets 7.5% on the top-line revenue and then balance is 50-50. And on digital, basically if Eros Now wants to use it and Jio wants to use it, there is no cost on that for the Eros Now platform or on Jio platform. That is absorbed by the JV.
That's how the JV works, and that's how the productions will work.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
So obviously, the digital will go to the Eros Now and to Jio, that won't be sold outside, but television syndication could be done?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, it can't be sold out. Yes, the television syndication, we have the first option for Viacom because Reliance owns Viacom 51%. So whatever is the arm's length base rate, they will have the first option to acquire the satellite pay television rights for those movies into the joint production.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
Fair enough. And just little bit further expanding on that. So you account for all the revenues of the jointly produced movie, and then the share of profit to Reliance will go out below the line, is that correct understanding?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
That is right, yes. Yes.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
All right. OK. OK. Perfect.
Just moving on to Eros Now, if you can give us some more idea in terms of the revenue achieved and the ARPU, etc., if you can give some more details.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. Basically, you're looking -- if you have seen the journey, how the journey has started in the last three years, that's how we have achieved from 100,000 subscribers to now 7.9 million subscribers in March '18 and now the guidance of $16 million. But $16 million is just a guidance. We are very confident to invoke lot of minimum guarantees from the telcos we are working with and as well as the various platforms.
So we have three kinds of models as we have reiterated. One is the B2C model. Then we have what the B2B2C model. So the B2B2C model is working with the telcos or with any payers, whereby there's a single login, and they come to our app, and they experience our content, and we have the full data analytics for that, one is consumer watching.
And then there is a fee, whereby there is some percentage being shared with the telcos. So average ARPU, you could say, you could count that I would say that 95% of the subscribers what we are looking at is going to come from India, and 5% will come from international markets. Now I'd like to expand. So $16 million target for this year, but what we are looking at is a bigger game.
In the next three to five years, as you will rightly know that India will have 1 billion digital users with the 4G expansion. And with the telcos, what they are doing is basically subsidizing the content, the pricing of the subscribers and giving them content free. And we look at that there's an opportunity for us, and we are looking at around 50 million to 75 million subs in the next three to five years. And the expansion can be faster or lower, but the growth rate is going to be amazing for us.
So the ARPU we are looking at in India, roughly $4 to $4.5 per year ARPU from the telcos and the B2B2C model, and around $7 to $8 on the B2C model in India. And internationally, we are looking at an average of about $30 ARPU per year. These are all annual ARPUs throughout the region, because like in U.S., it's $7.99 a month; in U.K., it's GBP five a month; or in Malaysia, it's $2 a month, something like that. So different ARPU we are averaging down to that.
So the way you should look at Eros Now business is we have the largest library, around 11,000 movies on the service, and then you are adding on -- we had in the last 15 months about 33 digital premieres. And this year, we are looking at minimum 50 to 75 digital premieres and about 10 to 12 big shows and also about 20 average shows, which have been commissioned and are under various stages of production. So the content is going to a big play for us. And then the JV, what is it producing and the definitely, as you have seen, we have a robust film slate, which is there, that will premiere on Eros Now, and that's driving basically the traffic.
And as you said, Rishika spoke about this, the main thing, if you note, as per the FICCI report, the average time spent of the industry today and even the IPL on Hotstar was around -- FICCI reported, about 20 minutes. And they -- FICCI reported on Eros Now numbers that we are well -- more than anybody's average, that's around 40 minutes. That's very, very heartening to know that the consumers which are spending time on Eros Now are spending more time on Eros Now. That means it speaks up about our content that we have premium compelling content on our platform, plus our old library, plus, let's assume, movies like Meri Nimmo or Mukkabaaz, when we premiered on Eros Now, we gained so many subscribers through the telcos or through B2C.
So I think the strategy is working fully.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
Can you give the revenue and ARPU for Eros Now for FY' 18? Would you be able to share?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I think we should be around $4 roughly. It's around between $30 million and $35 million, roughly, for Eros Now. And we're going forward, we are looking at about $70 million to $80 million, roughly, revenue on the platform.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
OK. And coming to CAPEX, last year's numbers suggest $187 million of CAPEX.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
That's right.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
So can you give a breakdown how much was spent on theatrical and how much was spent on Eros Now?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. See, we could say that Eros Now could be around $50 million, roughly, and the rest was on the studio model. I think if you could break it up, this year, guidance is around $250 million. So roughly, $75 million could be on Eros Now and $175 million could be on the studio business.
Plus, this doesn't include the -- if the JV -- and we fully utilize $150 million with Reliance, that means the $75 million share of that also comes in. So eventually, we are spending in the [Inaudible].
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
So that is including the Reliance -- the $250 million includes the $75 million with Reliance?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. $250 million includes our $75 million share. So if you look at the [Inaudible], it would be $325 million, but our share is $250 million. And then the -- how the basics that how the deal with Reliance works and how the [Inaudible].
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
Last thing on the -- last question on the pipeline. I still see that the pipeline for FY '19, what you have presented, is a bit thin, but then you have probably not mentioned some of the regional movies which you might be doing. And also, this year, you are saying there will be some more China releases like last year. So if you can give some more color on that.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. So there will be around -- we have nearly finalized two more movies like Bajrangi Bhaijaan. So if you look at Bajrangi Bhaijaan was around 2.5 years-old movie released in China in March, we did around $48 million of box office. And this year, we are looking at two movies.
Hopefully, they should be finalized and we should announce that, the release from our slate. And then we are also starting the production of the two movies, which are in joint venture with a Chinese company, whereby that should see the release by March 20 or March 21, roughly, those two big movies also on that. And next year, the China release will have more than two movies, we are targeting three movies.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
OK. And anything on the regional pipeline, etc.? Because, I mean, the FY '19 pipeline still looks quite thin, I mean, what you have presented.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
See, if you look at last year, when we presented March -- in March '17, you could have said that the same thing looks thin, but we had three of the top 10 movies, into the top 10 movies. Even the movies -- look, the ROI on those movies was very high. So let's take, for example, Newton or for example, Shubh Mangal Savdhan and other movies, whereby, they become big hits, even it looks small. So the strategy of the company was simple.
Not spend too much on blockbusters, because, you see, what we are seeing, Jigar, in the data analytics from Sony, Eros Now. So just to give you for example, we selected the top 10 movies consumed on Eros Now in the last two years. And when the data came, we were really shocked. There was not a single movie, which was a big blockbuster movie in those top 10 movies.
And they were different kind of movies, different -- and the regional cinema is also growing. And we are trying to see the ROI. So say, suppose, for example, Race 3, where we were thinking of, contemplating of acquiring Race 3. And then I think the committee took it all that deliberate call that we will not pay this much big amount and we'll stay away from Race 3, and we have seen the box office results of Race 3 today.
And that's the policy prudently we are taking today, whereby we are greenlighting the right scripts with the right screenplay and the directors. And even though they don't look big at the time when they are announced, those movies become very big, they are sleeper hits. And we are trying to eliminate the total box office risk from this model. See, as we are trying -- so let's assume we have $80 million EBITDA today, how we are going to move to -- in the next three to five years to $250 million to $300 million EBITDA? That means the studio business we are looking at will grow at about 10%, correct, including the joint venture.
But we will see big growth in Eros Now numbers. So let's assume we are looking at 8 million subs. In the next three to five years, about 50 million subs. And so 50 million subs, even 95% are from India and 5% from outside of India, you can do your maths, that's about $4 from the telco subs or whatever and then different, you will see 70% of the EBITDA will come out of the digital platforms and digital company rather than the studio company.
And in the studio company, what we want to do, not to be reliant much on big-budget movies. When they fail on the box office, which will dent -- make a dent on our cash, and that's the model that we are playing, Jigar.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
So this year, you still maintain a 40 to 50 movies release, though may not be very high-budget?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. And you have seen those releases we have got. So we have got all that in the bag. And then -- now the 10 to 15 movies we have identified in the joint venture with Reliance also will add on in the year of 2019.
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
OK. OK. I think that's it from my side. Thank you so much.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You are most welcome, Jigar.
Operator
[Operator instructions] We will take our next question from Tim Nolan from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
Thanks very much. Well, you answered really almost all my questions in that last dialogue. Just a couple of things to follow up, though. Once more on the film slate, I can't tell from your film release what are your A versus B versus C films.
I understand what you have said about the de-emphasis on the A films from now, but if you can let us know, maybe by quarter, what the A films may be for the box office.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Sure, we can let you know.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
OK. Go ahead with that first, and I'll follow up with the rest.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You know what we could do? Tim, we are having a call today anyway, we could give you the breakdown on the A, B, and C, and we'll email it to you anyway.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
OK. On the $250 million of spending, my understanding from your comments is, it's largely Eros Now. So that's still some box office, but I guess, the majority of the $250 million is going to Eros Now production, is that correct?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
No. $75 million on Eros Now. $175 million on the studio business, including the -- you see, then what happens is, basically, $175 million, if you look at $75 million contributing with RIL joint venture, so like that and $75 million purely on Eros Now.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
Seventy-five million dollars to Eros Now and $175 million to the -- for the studio.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
OK. And the Reliance contribution is on both of those?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, could be on both of those.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
OK. Let's see. Could you comment a bit more please about the OTT landscape in India given Netflix, Amazon, Hotstar, and others? And I understand those are all different business models and so forth, but what general comments could you give us about your position versus those and any others, please?
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Excellent thinking. So OK, as you must have heard from the Rishika's speech that 7% of the content in India is English and 93% of the content being consumed is non-English. When we compare China, it's much higher. But from the 93%, let's assume we have 1 billion people today in India, 1.1 billion people watching a lot of movies.
Now if you look at all the linear broadcast channels, even on their prime time, they are putting movies. So the movies have a lot of, basically, the viewership. So what we did was, in the last five years, we didn't syndicate our digital rights to any broadcaster, leaving aside and we only syndicated satellite rights and tried to retain those digital rights, and we launched our platform. And then we also syndicated from others to come -- those rights to come on the Indian platform.
Let's look at Netflix, let's look at Amazon Prime, let's look at Hotstar and Eros Now. So in the movie segment, so if we have about 11,000 movies, and this is on, let's assume, publicly -- amount of movies on the other apps. So I reckon that we have about 60% to 70% market share in the number of movies we have on our platform, and we want to maintain that with the new releases. So what happens with the new releases and what is happening in the landscape is, if Amazon Prime and Netflix -- and Hotstar is, by the way, not only buying the rights for Hotstar, they are just consuming, and they are just putting down their content which is on their Star platforms.
So Netflix and Amazon are bidding big prices for the big movies, which we are not in competition with these people. So we are only restricted to our library and then whatever the 50 movies, which will come out of our stable, and then whatever we are producing, the originals. So that means we are not paying big dollars in competition, and we are trying to conserve that. And then with the Reliance joint venture, we will conserve the other cash also and being -- trying and share the IP 50-50 with the Jio platform.
So the landscape you will, which is coming, that 7% which is consuming the English content, that will -- is being targeted by Netflix and also Amazon. And they are also spending money and putting some content on Hindi and other regional languages on their platform. So in a way, I see Netflix and Amazon not competing with us at all, because we are not putting any international content or we are not in actually competition with them for that. So we are only looking at the movie segment and our originals, which are some big originals, like how the Netflix produced House of Cards and Crown and everything.
So we are trying to have that version in the Hindi, and we have signed the big directors and the actors, which -- and the launches are happening from September onwards. You will see big series coming out of our stable. Now that is where I think when we are so pleased with the results of our -- of the consumption -- the FICCI report of the consumption, right. That's where we were very overwhelmed by the consumption, and that means our strategy of the content is playing right.
That means the content which we are putting on and producing for the OTT also is working for us, and we want to consolidate that position, Tim.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
Great, that's helpful, thanks. And could I just ask one more question please to Prem, probably about the effect of the convertible, quite a bit of movement below the line. How are we supposed to model the effect of this going forward?
Prem Parameswaran -- Chief Financial Officer
Yes, I mean -- Tim. I mean, if you look at the convert, I think the convert -- this is a $122 million convert currently sitting at roughly $84 million on our balance sheet. So you can look at it as from a mark-to-market basis, $84 million. But -- and that's probably the right way to think about it.
But also, as you know, as there are stock price movements, that all -- the conversion price on that convert is just over $14, right. So that's a good way of thinking about it, right. So we feel pretty good about where we are, and it's been a good instrument for us, and it was nice to have access to the capital markets with Citigroup last December.
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
OK. Thanks very much.
Prem Parameswaran -- Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Tim.
Operator
It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Kishore Lulla, I'd like to turn the call back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I would like to thank everyone, all our shareholder, stakeholders, business partners, our friends really for your continued support. And I think you have a great company, and we will try and -- you to be proud of this company in the years to come. Thank you so much.
Operator
[Operator signoff]
Duration: 33 minutes
Call Participants:
Kishore Lulla -- Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Rishika Lulla -- Chief Executive Officer of Eros Now
Prem Parameswaran -- Chief Financial Officer
Jigar Shah -- Maybank Kimeng Securities India Pvt Ltd. -- Analyst
Tim Nollen -- Macquarie Research -- Analyst
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