Logo of jester cap with thought bubble.

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Centene Corp  (NYSE:CNC)
Q1 2019 Earnings Conference Call
April 23, 2019, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, and welcome to the Centene Corporation First Quarter Earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode (Operator Instructions).

After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) Please note this event is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Ed Kroll, Vice -- Senior Vice President, Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Edmund E. Kroll, Jr. -- Senior Vice President, Finance & Investor Relations

Thank you, Nicole, and good morning everyone. Thank you for joining us on our first quarter 2019 Earnings Results Conference Call. Michael Neidorff, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Jeff Schwaneke, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Centene will host this morning's call, which can also be accessed through our website at centene.com.

A replay will be available shortly after the call's completion also at centene.com or by dialing 877-344-7529 in the US and Canada or in other countries by dialing 412-317-0088. The playback code for both of those dial-ins is 10129281.

Any remarks that Centene may make about future expectations, plans and prospects constitute forward-looking statements for purposes of the Safe Harbor provision under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated by these forward-looking statements as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in Centene's most recent Form 10-Q filed today, April 23rd, 2019 and the Form 10-K, dated February 19th, 2019, and other public SEC filings.

Centene anticipates that subsequent events and developments will cause its estimates to change. While the Company may elect to update these forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we specifically disclaim any obligation to do so. The call will also refer to certain non-GAAP measures. A reconciliation of these measures with the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in our first quarter 2019 press release that we released this morning, which is also available on the Company's website at centene.com under the Investors section. Finally, a reminder that our next Investor Day will be on Friday, June 14th, 2019 in New York City.

And with that, I'd like to turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Michael Neidorff, Michael?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ed. Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining Centene's first quarter 2019 earnings call. During the course of this morning's call, we will discuss our first quarter financial results and provide update on Centene's markets and products. We will also provide commentary around the regulatory and legislative environment and our recently announced agreement to acquire WellCare.

I want to emphasize, while we have an experienced team working on the WellCare integration, our main focus continues to be the results of the core business. This includes executing on our transformation project Centene Forward.

Let me begin with first quarter 2019 financials. We were pleased to begin 2019 with another strong quarter, marked by solid top and bottom line growth and robust operating cash flows. Membership at quarter-end was 14.7 million recipients. This represents an increase of 1.8 million beneficiaries over the first quarter of 2018.

First quarter revenues increased 40% year-over-year to $18.4 billion. The HBR increased 140 basis points year-over-year to 85.7%. This was primarily due to Fidelis Care, which we noted when we announced the acquisition, operates at a higher HBR, as well as the impact of the HIF moratorium in 2019.

We reported adjusted first quarter diluted earnings per share of $1.39 compared to $1.09 in the same period last year. This represents 28% growth year-over-year. We are pleased to report our adjusted net earnings margin improved 40 basis points year-over-year. This improvement was due to better network management, leveraging our scale and enhanced medical management efforts. We continue to see opportunity for further improvement.

Lastly, operating cash flows came in at $1.3 billion or 2.5 times net earnings, above the high end of our previously stated range of 1.5 times to 2 times net earnings. Jeff will provide further financial details, including increased 2019 guidance in his prepared remarks. A quick comment on medical costs, medical costs remained stable and in line with our expectations of low-single-digits.

Moving on to markets and product updates. First we'll discuss recent Medicaid activity. Our Medicaid book of business performed well in the first quarter. On March 31, we had 8.6 million recipients, representing a year-over-year growth of 1.5 million or 21%. As we have previously mentioned, we see an opportunity to continue to improve our overall Medicaid margins.

Now onto to updates, New Hampshire; in March we successfully reprocured our statewide Medicaid contract in New Hampshire. The new program covers 180,000 recipients. The new contract is expected to commence September 1, 2019. At March 31, we served 83,000 beneficiaries in the state.

North Carolina, I remind you that we won two large regions in the recent RFP and have an active appeal process for the balance of the state. We remain cautiously optimistic regarding the appeal. Iowa, on July 1, 2019, Centene will commence operations in the Iowa's managed Medicaid program. The state is moving from tree to two plans and beneficiaries will be split equally between the two.

We are confident that the state is committed to operating a sustainable Medicaid managed care program. I'd remind you, we book a higher HBR in the initial quarters of any and all new Medicaid managed care contracts and Iowa is no different. As our medical management efforts gain traction over time, we will attain experience and knowledge with respect to our new members. It is at this point that margins will begin to normalize. We fully expect Iowa to match this pattern and believe we will be able to succeed in this program.

Next, Medicare; at March 31, we served 394,000 Medicare and MMP beneficiaries across 20 states. This represents a year-over-year increase of over 50,000 recipients. On a sequential basis, membership declined by approximately 23,000, as previously projected. This is due to the repositioning of Fidelis to get back its four star rating. We continue to expect 2019 MA revenue and membership to be flat compared to 2018.

We believe, as previously discussed, 2020 will be an inflection point for our Medicare Advantage book of business. Centene will return to a four-star MA parent rating next year. We expect this, along with the joint venture with Ascension and the addition of WellCare's top performing MA platform to accelerate profitable growth, as previously suggested, in the 2020s and beyond.

Now, Health Insurance Marketplaces. The Marketplace business put up another strong quarterly performance, consistent with our expectations. At March 31st, we served approximately 2 million exchange members across 20 states. This represents a sequential increase of 510,000 beneficiaries or 35% on a year-over-year basis. Membership increased by 365,000 beneficiaries or 23%.

The key demographics of these members remain consistent with prior years. Approximately 90% are enrolled in silver tier plans and greater than 90% receive subsidies. Additionally, we see a slightly higher retention rate compared to last year, which is reflected in our updated guidance. We expect to have another strong year of operations as the national leader of exchange products.

Next, I'll provide an update on healthcare legislation and regulatory environment. At this time, we believe there is no appetite in Washington to revisit comprehensive healthcare reform. With the political class turning its attention to the 2020 presidential and congressional elections, we welcome the discussion on ways to improve and expand government health programs.

States and federal government continue to see private sector solutions to enhance quality and lower costs of healthcare. This is evidenced by 68% of Medicaid beneficiaries and 34% of Medicare recipients in private managed care plans. Centene will continue to work with both parties on a bipartisan solution that strengthens the nation's healthcare delivery system. We were pleased to see bipartisan efforts put forth on reducing prescription drug cost. Centene will continue to advocate for greater price transparency. This includes moving toward net pricing. We stress these things in our recent response to the draft rule on PBM rebates.

We've been ahead of the curve with our equity interest in RxAdvance. This is a national, full-service, cloud-based PBM that manages standard and specialty drug benefits with unmatched compliance and transparency. Thus far, Centene has successfully migrated two states into the RxAdvance platform, Mississippi and Nebraska. The implementation went seamlessly. We expect the roll-out of Centene's Medicaid and exchange states to be completed by the end of 2020. We commend the administration's efforts on giving states greater flexibility via waivers. This was most recently exemplified with CMS approval of Utah's waiver for a partial Medicaid expansion.

Centene believes in allowing states to expand the Medicaid population up to 100% of the federal poverty level. This would enable every American below 100% of the federal poverty level to obtain coverage through Medicaid. American's above a 100% of the FPL would continue to be able to purchase affordable, comprehensive coverage to the market price, with the help of advance tax credit. We look forward to working with the states that are on the front line in making sure all their citizens have access to affordable, high quality healthcare.

I'd like to remind you, with over three decades of experience, Centene and its predecessor companies have demonstrated the ability to adapt and adjust to political and regulatory changes at any given time.

I would now like to make a few comments about our recently announced agreement to acquire WellCare. This combination is expected to bring together two top performing companies, creating a premier healthcare enterprise, focused primarily on government-sponsored programs. The addition of WellCare will bolster and diversify our product offerings, significantly increase our scale and provide access to new markets.

WellCare has developed a strong portfolio of Medicare assets, which is expected to provide Centene additional Medicare capabilities, including both Medicare Advantage and Part D. WellCare's Part D offering will significantly enhance and increase our scale in pharmacy. On a combined basis, our pro forma annual drug spend will be approximately $30 billion and growing.

We also believe the addition of WellCare's Medicare expertise create significant opportunities across Centene's existing markets, as it could both strengthen and accelerate the growth for our existing MA portfolio. WellCare's approach to Medicare Advantage is complementary to Centene's strategy, both companies focus on providing high quality, low cost healthcare to low-income seniors. It is important to note that substantial opportunity this approach presents for the combined company, more than 10,000 people a day in the US turn 65, and 65% of seniors are at or below 100% of the federal poverty level, our target market.

The combination will also further extend Centene's robust Medicaid offerings. Additionally, it will benefit from Centene's growing exchange presence, as we will be able to leverage our exchange platform in new markets. Adding WellCare, we will expand our footprint from 32 to 50 states. The combined company will provide healthcare services to 22 million recipients in the US. This consists of over 12 million Medicaid and 5 million Medicare beneficiaries, including Part D clients. We will also be serving individuals on the exchanges and those who enrolled in the TRICARE program.

The addition of WellCare will extend our position as the largest Medicaid managed care organization in the country. We will remain the largest provider of exchange offering and we'll become fourth largest Medicare company in the country. We're already working on integration planning and believe or similar values, including both company's local approach and integrated care models will help ensure we achieve a seamless transition.

We expect to hit the ground running when we close. Our integration priorities include delivering values for members, capturing synergies, and retaining and attracting the best talent. We have experienced integration leaders in both companies and are confident in the accretion and synergy targets that we outlined when we announced the transaction.

We believe Centene's leading technology platform will be essential to our success as a combined company as it provides a competitive advantage. We will apply our platform, including our data analytics tools such as Interpreta to further enhance the quality of care for the combined company recipients. We will continue to invest in cutting-edge technology, systems and capabilities. This will significantly enhance our ability to scale, coordinate and better managed care while leading to lower costs. Further, the integration of Centene's specialty platform across WellCare's membership base should also enhance quality and profit vectors.

We recognize the importance of network adequacy. We want to ensure access to high quality cost-effective providers. We also want to ensure that these providers are appropriately and adequately compensated. We have initiated appropriate preliminary regulatory discussions at the federal level with the Department of Justice. We would describe these discussions as constructive and have laid out a timetable for submission. At the state level, five Form As have been filed and others are in the process of being field.

So, preliminary discussions with appropriate regulatory authorities in our largest states have taken place. It is our opinion these processes will protect recipients, providers and states. As I have commented previously, there may be some form of divestitures in Nebraska and Missouri. Based on our actions thus far, we continue to maintain our internal timelines with approval of the credit asset.

The combined company will have estimated pro forma 2019 revenues of approximately $100 billion and pro forma EBITDA of $5 billion. The pro forma revenue mix consists of 65% for Medicaid; 15% for Medicare; and 15% for public sector. We are confident that combination will provide significant value to our collective shareholder's, members, state partners and other stakeholders. We look forward to providing updates as we move through the transactions process.

A quick note on Fidelis, we continue to be very pleased with the performance of Fidelis. Approximately 10 months since the closing of this transaction, integration is running smoothly. We remain on track to utilize health synergies and efficient progress (ph) .

Shifting gears to our rate outlook, we continue to expect a composite Medicaid rate adjustment of an increase of approximately 1.5% for 2019. In February, CMS recently issued the 2020 plan on Medicare Advantage rate notice and rates came in better than expected.

In summary, our strong first quarter results set the stage for us to maintain positive momentum throughout 2019 and beyond. Our pipeline of opportunities across all lines of business remains robust. We believe the additional scale and diversification that the WellCare acquisition provides will enhance the sustainability of Centene's long-term growth.

We are optimistic about our future and ability to extend Centene's leadership position in government sponsored healthcare. As Ed reminded you, our Investor Day is June 14th in New York City. We look forward to seeing you there.

We thank you for your continued interest in Centene. I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Thank you, Michael, and good morning. This morning we reported strong first quarter 2019 results. First quarter revenues were $18.4 billion, an increase of 40% over the first quarter of 2018, and adjusted diluted earnings per share was $1.39 this quarter compared to $1.09 last year.

Before I get into the details, I want to remind everyone that the Company stock split was distributed on February 6th, 2019 to stockholders of record as of December 24th, 2018.

Now let me provide additional details for the first quarter. Total revenues grew by approximately $5.3 billion year-over-year, primarily as a result of the acquisition of Fidelis Care; growth in the health insurance marketplace business; expansions and new programs in many of our states in 2018 and 2019, including the Illinois contract expansion; another region going live for the Pennsylvania LTSS program and the beginning of operations in New Mexico; and approximately $500 million of pass-through payments from the State of California and approximately $435 million of pass-through payments from the State of New York. This growth was partially offset by the health insurer fee moratorium in 2019.

Moving onto HBR, our health benefits ratio was 85.7% in the first quarter this year compared to 84.3% in last year's first quarter and 86.8% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The increase was primarily due to the acquisition of Fidelis Care, which operates at a higher HBR and the impact of the health insurer fee moratorium in 2019. These items contributed to 130 basis points of the increase from last year. Sequentially, the 110 basis point decrease in HBR from the fourth quarter of 2018 is primarily due to the performance and seasonality in the Health Insurance Marketplace business, partially offset by the impact of the health insurer fee moratorium in 2019.

The Marketplace business continues to perform well and membership remained strong, as we ended the quarter with approximately 2 million members. We continue to expect pre-tax margins for the year to be within our stated 5% to 10% range.

Now on to SG&A, our adjusted selling, general and administrative expense ratio was 9.5% in the first quarter of this year compared to 10.3% last year and 9.9% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The year-over-year decrease was primarily driven by the acquisition of Fidelis Care, which lowered the ratio by 70 basis points. The sequential decrease is primarily due to seasonal open enrollment costs associated with the health insurance marketplace and Medicare businesses that were recognized in the fourth quarter of 2018.

Additionally, we spent $0.02 per diluted share on business expansion costs during the first quarter. Investment income was $99 million during the first quarter compared to $41 million last year and $67 million last quarter. The increase year-over-year is due to higher investment balances, mainly associated with the Fidelis acquisition, higher interest rates on short-term investments and improved performance associated with our deferred compensation investment portfolio, which fluctuates with this underlying investments.

The earnings from our deferred compensation portfolio were substantially offset by increases in deferred compensation expense, which is recorded in SG&A. Sequentially, investment income increased due to the previously mentioned improved earnings from our deferred compensation portfolio, as well as higher average investment balances and higher interest rates on short-term investments.

Interest expense was $99 million for the first quarter of 2019, compared to $68 million last year and $98 million last quarter. The increase year-over-year was driven by additional debt to fund the Fidelis acquisition and higher interest rates on our debt associated with our interest rate swaps.

Our effective tax rate for the first quarter was 24.2% compared to 34.1% in the first quarter of 2018. The lower tax rate was driven by the health insurer fee moratorium in 2019 and lower tax expense associated with a favorable outcome of a federal tax audit with respect to R&D tax credits. This favorable outcome accounted for a 150 basis points of the reduction in the first quarter 2019 tax rate.

Now onto the balance sheet. Cash and investments totaled $14.8 billion at quarter-end, including $507 million held by unregulated subsidiaries. Our risk-based capital percentage for NAIC filers continues to be in excess of 350% of the authorized control level. Debt at quarter-end was $6.8 billion, which includes $357 million of borrowings on our revolving credit facility at quarter end. Our debt-to-capital ratio was 36.5%, excluding our non-recourse debt, compared to 40.3% last year and 37.4% at the fourth quarter of 2018.

Our medical claims liability totaled $7.4 billion at quarter-end and represents 48 days in claims payable, which is consistent with the fourth quarter of 2018. We continue to expect the DCP to be in the mid-40 range on a run rate basis with the inclusion of Fidelis. Cash flow provided by operations was $1.3 billion in the first quarter or 2.5 times net earnings. The cash provided by operating activities in 2019 was due to net earnings, an increase in medical claims liabilities, primarily resulting from growth in the Health Insurance Marketplace business and the commencement or expansion of the Arkansas, Florida, Pennsylvania and New Mexico Health plans, and an increase in other long-term liabilities, driven by the recognition of the risk adjustment payable for the health insurance marketplace business in 2019.

Cash flow from operations were partially offset by an increase in premium and trade receivables of $662 million, primarily due to a delay in payment from one of our state customers, which was received in early April. Before I discuss our revised guidance, let me make a few comments on the WellCare acquisition. As Michael commented, we are working through the regulatory approval process and have begun integration planning activities. While it is still early in the integration planning and regulatory approval process, we continue to be comfortable with the synergy and accretion targets we communicated at transaction announcement. As we progress through this process, we look forward to keeping you updated.

Now onto guidance. We updated our 2019 annual guidance for the following items. First, we are increasing the total revenue guidance at the midpoint by $2.5 billion, primarily driven by $1 billion of additional pass through payments in New York and California; $700 million associated with the Health Insurance Marketplace business, driven by a combination of higher-than-expected member retention and risk adjustment; and $500 million due to the proposed changes in the Iowa contract award.

Second, we are decreasing our full year effective tax rate by 50 basis points to reflect the lower tax expense recognized in the first quarter associated with the favorable audit results. Lastly, we are increasing our adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance at the midpoint by $0.13 per share. This is the second increase so far this year and is driven by the first quarter results; $0.05 per diluted share for higher expected investment income and $0.05 per diluted share associated with increased health insurance marketplace revenue I previously mentioned. These increases are partially offset by increased business expansion costs of $0.02 per diluted share.

In summary, our full year updated 2019 guidance is as follows. Total revenues of $72.8 billion to $73.6 billion; GAAP diluted earnings per share of $3.67 to $3.84; adjusted diluted earnings per share of $4.24 to $4.44; an HBR of 86.5% to 87%; an SG&A ratio of 9.4% to 9.9%; an adjusted SG&A ratio of 9.3% to 9.8%, an effective tax rate of 24.5% to 26.5%; and diluted shares outstanding of 421 million to 422 million shares.

Overall, we had a good start to the year with good performance across all of our business segments. We believe the continued growth in revenue provides opportunity for future earnings growth.

That concludes my remarks. And operator, you may now open the line for questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Josh Raskin of Nephron Research. Please go ahead.

Josh Raskin -- Nephron Research -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Josh Raskin -- Nephron Research -- Analyst

Good morning, Michael. So my question just -- it sounded like a little bit more excitement around the Medicare opportunity for next year, talking about the inflection point. And so I was wondering if you could help sort of flush out what gives you that confidence. How you guys are thinking about your bids with a month and a half to go on that.

And then, was there any thought as to, you know, waiting for the WellCare acquisition to close and giving yourself a little bit more time and information and management expertise and Part D plans, et cetera. Or is it sort of now we've got the four stars for Centene and that's all we need? And then, just one quick one on the WellCare progress, I understood the integration started et cetera, any more updated thoughts on combined management team? I think that'd be helpful as well.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Josh, I'll start off on the Medicare and others can jump in here. But on the Medicare, we've said that the 2020 will be the year where it comes together, we've been testing things. We're recontracting with providers on risk-based contracts and the things that create successful Medicare products. So we will continue to move ahead on our own, recognizing that until we close, we can't work with WellCare on it. Once we do close, they have a strong platform. We have added some real talent here and through the integration process we'll be putting those two talents together and I think 2020 will be a very strong year for Medicare on that basis.

On the organization, I am not going to comment, I think, before I say too much on the call like this, first the Centene people and -- as well as and the WellCare people need to know what the new organization will look like and we're not going to get into that until we get closer to the -- know when it's closing, simply we have, as I said earlier, everybody is focused on their respective businesses and then we'll move through that. I'm sure you're going to say, think about it. That's a better place to be.

But, I will add this much, just we are working with some of the senior management at WellCare and have some very important responsible positions that we'll be able to move in as -- into this new $100 billion company.

Josh Raskin -- Nephron Research -- Analyst

That's helpful, Mike. And just one quick follow-up on the Medicare comment 2020, you've talked about Medicare contributing as much as 20% of growth in future years. Is 2020 that year, where we start thinking about as much as 20% of the growth coming from Medicare?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think I've said during the course of the decade. So I mean we'll start to hit, Josh, and then you will see it continue to ramp up. It's not going to be adjusted, but thanks.

Josh Raskin -- Nephron Research -- Analyst

Fair, fair, thanks.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Fischbeck of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Kevin Fischbeck -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Great, thanks. Wanted to ask a question on the WellCare deal, it sounds like you've already started the process with the states, and again, you've identified a couple of states where you expect there to be divestitures. Is it safe to say that based upon the conversations with the other states where you have above average pro forma market share, you still feel confident that divestitures will not be required.

And then I guess, how do you think about the sustainability of a state where you have pro forma 50% market share? What -- how did you factor in the potential risks that in two years during the reprocurement, the state might add a new player in to replace the fact that you've consolidated WellCare?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I will say this, Kevin. I think you know we try to plan ahead and we've brought two of those kinds of issues and looking at this particular transaction. I'm not going to front run the states with a lot of discussion as to what -- our discussions with them, they are very constructive and I would go this far and say that though we share a shared focus, I'm worried about the recipients and what's best for them. And then we look at the provider networks ensuring that they're well taken care of in terms of provided for in this situation and protect it and then they stays as customers, so we're focused on all three of those things.

As far as divestitures are concerned, those are subject to discussion and even in Missouri and Nebraska we're in discussions as to what if anything they want us to do. I mentioned the states we have talked about in the past, that's where there are three and we -- two of the three are WellCare and Centene. So we're working through and seeing what they want to do there and go from there.

Kevin Fischbeck -- Bank of America -- Analyst

I guess, in the past you've talked about the accretion in the synergy numbers, assuming a prudent amount of divestitures, does it take into account potential issues a couple of years down the road, when you give that two year accretion number, does that also factor in any kind of loss of membership if states where in Medicare?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Oh yes, and states factors in a conservative position on that. So we're absolutely.

Kevin Fischbeck -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Okay. If I can just ask one more question, you mentioned that the Medicaid margins have room for improvement, how do we think about where we are in that process? Is this a multi-year process, where are we versus your target margins and how long do you think it takes to get there? Thanks.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we will never, per se from a management standpoint, Jeff and all of us here and Chris, we'll never take the pressure off improving margins because the moment you stop trying to improve, they're going to bounce up. So it's an ongoing process and -- but we want to do it a way that's sustainable. It's not -- we don't want a short-term big huge improvement and then have something come ups. So what we're working on is the network, the contracts with various providers and keep it balanced with them because we view them as part of our product and we don't want to -- you never want to hurt your products, you want to maintain it. So it's a total process we're going through and we're moving more and more to risk-based management where the providers are going to do very well when they work with us and manage it. So it's a longer term thing, but what is important is that, we see it on as a same basis; hope that helps.

Kevin Fischbeck -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Yeah, thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sarah James of Piper Jaffray. Please go ahead.

Sarah James -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Thank you. I wanted to drill down on the services line, it looked like cost of services increased about 250 basis points year-over-year and we're estimating that was about a $0.04 headwind, which implies the underlying health plan results were strong. So on the services line, I know there were some moving pieces with the VA contract and the NHS acquisition, can you help us bridge 1Q '19 to historical levels and how we should think about revenue and gross margin on that product going forward?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I'm going to point that one to Jeff.

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Thanks, Michael. Obviously, I think a couple of things. First, I think you hit the nail on the head there, Sarah. I think a few things is, it's a different mix of business than we had in the first quarter of last year. So I guess what I would say as I would bridge from the fourth quarter to the first quarter, I think that's more appropriate given the fact that we had the VA business that's no longer part of that line and then you also have a couple of acquisitions that we made that are changing the mix profile of that business.

And so I guess what I would say is, I would look at the fourth quarter of last year bridging into Q1 and I think that's pretty consistent and I think that's what you would expect to see for the remainder of the year. There is some lumpiness in those because there are certain, like for example, the home health business has some contract reconciliations that are normal and occur every year either in the third or fourth quarter. So it doesn't mean every quarter is going to have a consistent cost to service percentage. But for the full year, we would expect it to look similar to the fourth quarter, maybe a little bit lower.

Sarah James -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Got it. And one clarification here on guidance, last quarter you guys talked about 60% one half, 40% second half and last year you talked about a 10% or so historical average for the risk adjusted true up, which based on today's Q would be about $93 million benefit to 2Q '19. So I just want to make sure on those two aspects, that's still what guidance assumes, is a 60/40 seasonality split and about a 10% (ph) risk-adjusted true-up benefit in 2Q?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yes, the 60/40 is consistent with what we said. On the true-up piece, you just have to make sure that when you do the true-up, it's really based on last year's -- it's on 2018 business right. You can't roll in the first quarter of 2019's risk adjustment in order to calculate the 10%. So it's a state by state calculation, that's really based on the business activity in the 2018 year.

Sarah James -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Peter Costa of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Good morning. Nice quarter guys.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, thanks.

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Can you tell us a little bit about what you're thinking about what the PBM at this point, you've had a couple of states now convert to RxAdvance, you're starting to see how that's performing. Is that performing up to your expectations at this point? Do you think you can do better by looking at what WellCare is doing, given that WellCare has the buying power of a much bigger CVS behind it than what RxAdvance has, which maybe doesn't matter in the Medicaid space, but certainly matters in the Medicare space.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think one -- the first part, the RxAdvance has been flawless in the implementation. I expect that as we continue to enroll more states, we will continue to find ways to improve and always do better. So I think we're going to find that RxAdvance will provide some new useful tools to the WellCare and what they're doing with the purchasing they are doing. And this is really a very modern day PBM type thing with a lot of transparency, a lot of great information, Peter, that these would sever us very well. So the combined -- the combination of two will help. And Jeff, do you want add some?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah, thanks, Michael. So I think just to your point, Peter. I think this is -- we're looking at the combined business. We do recognize the importance of pharmacy cost management on MA and PDP businesses and we think, as Michael referenced, the combination will certainly have the ability to leverage some of the capabilities from the WellCare team and their experience.

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

So, are you talking about some kind of a combination of our RxAdvance and what WellCare is doing currently with CVS?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we're working through the integration now and we'll determine what part each one should play in it. And so you're probably about two months ahead of us, but it's a good question.

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

All right, and just the last question, the third quarter of last year you had some reconciliation benefit from the California in-home services and sports program ending and you talked about perhaps getting some more of that reconciliation completed in 2019, was there any of that in this quarter, and do you expect any for the remainder of the year?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

There was not any of that in this quarter and as you're well aware, typically what happens, you know you're waiting for the final reconciliation and the state notifies you. So, we don't have any of that included in our guidance and more to come. I guess we're waiting to see what the results are.

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

And do you expect that to be positive when it happens?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

I mean, we made our best estimates. So, it could go either way, but we've had a history of making relatively conservative estimates. So that's -- I guess, I'll leave it at that.

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Fidel of Stephens. Please go ahead.

Scott Fidel -- Stephens -- Analyst

Thanks, good morning. First question; just interested in your assessment on the final 2020 exchange rate that came out late Thursday. Then just specifically also, whether you think the subsidy tweak that CMS made will have any impact on exchange market fundamentals or it's just -- you don't see as being particularly material?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Kevin, do you want to comment on that?

Kevin J. Counihan -- Senior Vice President of Products

Sure, hi Scott. I think, in general, we're pretty much supportive of the new final rule. We think the lower user fee is definitely appropriate. We support the fact that there is no change in either the silver loading or the automatic reenrollment. We also were supportive of the exclusion of the manufacture coupons for patient cost sharing, which we think is going to actually incent members to take more attractive generics.

And we think some of that offset that you're -- some of that headwind that you're talking about could be offset both by the lower user fee as well as the fact that manufacture rebate change -- or manufacture coupon change that I talked about, is also going to create more incentives for people to take generics. So we think some of that projected $980 million, let's say PTC, which I think is what you're referring to, will be offset by those two items.

Scott Fidel -- Stephens -- Analyst

Got it. So net-net when you look at all the different variables, would you actually view the final exchange rule as more of a sort of neutral to slightly positive overall?

Kevin J. Counihan -- Senior Vice President of Products

That's our view.

Scott Fidel -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay, and then just had a follow-up question, just actually wanted to tack on to Sarah's question just about some of the moving pieces in the specialty segment. I did noticed in the Q, you guys mentioned how in the Q2, we'll probably see more of a noticeable shift from earnings from specialty over to managed care, as you continue implement the new Rx pricing model. Jeff, interested if can maybe just walk us through, sort of functionally, how that plays out within the two P&Ls. Is it basically you have a lower gross margin in the specialty segment and it benefits the MLR in the managed care segment or just interested in the exact mechanics of how that works out. Thanks.

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah, you know you're exactly right. That's what we preview, we included that language in our 10-K. You're exactly right, there would be a lower gross margin in the segment results for the specialty that would in turn directly benefit the health plan results. And just to make sure I clarify for everybody that's only in the segment disclosure and that's an inter-company item, so that gets eliminated in the consolidation, so for -- we're not talking about the cost of service line, for example. It's reported on the GAAP financials.

Scott Fidel -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay, alright, thanks.

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yes.

Operator

Our Next question comes from Dave Windley of Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Dave Windley -- Jefferies & Company, Inc. -- Analyst

Hi, thanks, good morning. Wanted to ask a follow-up in pharmacy, Michael, I believe I caught you saying in your prepared remarks that Centene would be supportive of a move to net pricing and if I'm interpreting that right, elimination of rebates and a reduction of manufacturer price to net. If I'm interpreting that correctly, I'm curious what mechanism you would see as the governor to pharmaceutical price increases after that happens?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think one -- I said some time ago that that's something I believe we'll work very hard and try to move to. And if we are successful in it, the governor on price increases will obviously be the competitive world and we will be a -- we will have the critical mass in drug purchasing that all the pharmaceutical companies will have to take it seriously because we said that $30 billion we see as a growing number and as that continues to grow and as RxAdvance, information becomes ever more credible, I think we'll have the data we need to encourage competitive pricing.

Dave Windley -- Jefferies & Company, Inc. -- Analyst

Got it, thanks. If I come back to medical costs, appreciate the reconciling items that you provided. I'm curious if there's any difference year-over-year in the contribution or lack thereof from flu and with a relatively I guess in line expectation after those adjustments, if there were other moving parts -- if flu was better this year, for example or were there other moving parts as an offset?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I'll let Jeff finish that. I'll cover the flu initially, but I want to remind you, the flu -- we had a flu season, it looked like two years ago, not last year. But, when you have the scale and size, it will be a $70 billion enterprise this year before (inaudible) that the medical costs associated to flu is really not a major factor as part of the total medical cost. So that's something that we plan probably to book for, but the very issue will not have a material effect. Jeff?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah. Thanks, Michael. Dave, I think Michael is spot on. We're obviously calling out the large drivers, the largest driver obviously which being Fidelis and the health insurer fee moratorium are the two largest pieces. I would say, we did see a lighter flu than we did in the first quarter a year ago, but we also had, I'd say, a lot of new businesses starting up Including the Pennsylvania LTSS, New Mexico, and as Michael mentioned, we record a higher level of HBR in those because you're also building margin at the inception. And then we had new members in both Illinois and Florida. And so I think those were smaller drivers on an absolute basis, but you add all that together and they're kind of offsetting.

Dave Windley -- Jefferies & Company, Inc. -- Analyst

Great, very helpful, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matt Borsch of BMO Capital. Please go ahead.

Matt Borsch -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Yes. Maybe you could talk about the Iowa situation, and how you expect that to unfold and what gives you confidence that unlike the peer company that exited the market you can reach a mutually workable rate arrangement?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think, one, we've had discussions over a long period of time, at the most senior levels at this stage and in the regulatory environment and we have a real comfort in their commitment to have a very successful managed care program. It's very obvious. You know historically, we've been offered contracts and have turned them down rather than an end up taking a new and filing a PDR before you even have your first member, that's something we try to avoid.

So we -- but this time we looked at it. Our actuaries looked at it. The states just -- the legislature just floated an additional $50 million available to help sustain the program improvement. So everything we look at it said that this will be a successful program. And I know some peers have had exited, it was a different time. If I had entered when they did, I might have a different feeling, than I do coming in now, with the new administration in place the past year or so and they're very aggressively looking at how they can have a successful program.

Matt Borsch -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Michael, if I could just follow that with one question partly related, which is do you have a view on the optimal number of participants in a given state? I know the question isn't quite as simple as that, because you've got small states and large states but -- you know are two plans sufficient for some states like the size of Iowa?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah we are -- let me put it this way, regardless of size, I think the optimum was just us.

Matt Borsch -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. got it.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, have we moved away, we've moved beyond that, you kind of hit on. I think in Iowa, the size and scale, two is appropriate. That's really sweet. You can deal with that, we saw Georgia go from three to four so in aggregate, it did not have much of an impact and that's fine, because you have choice and when you have the -- it always starts out with choice and when we have the network we have and the reputation we have in most of these states, we can do well when there is choice.

So we deal with it as it is in Florida. There are some counties, I think Dade County is, I think they have as many as six plans and that's OK. But either way the algorithms work on auto-assigns it. If a member of the family is in, then other members get assigned to that plan. I think, it's the -- the states that have been doing for a while understand it and get it right. And obviously when you look at the growth we've had and how we're doing, we're very comfortable with the way it is. And so, you hit -- you really hit on it. It's going to be a function of the size of the state as to how many. Thank you.

Matt Borsch -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Okay. All right, thank you very much.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Charles Rhyee of Cowen. Please go ahead.

Charles Rhyee -- Cowen -- Analyst

Yeah, thanks for taking the question. I'd like to go back to pharmacy a little bit, and you talked to -- decided you're going to supporting great price transparency. When it comes to pharmacy, my understanding, generally speaking, right, states have tended to like the current rebate model, in part because rebate don't necessarily have to be funneled back to healthcare and can be used for general sort of budget purposes.

As you see the market moving maybe toward greater transparency and maybe even toward a net pricing model, how do you see states moving toward this as well, and how do you see them sort of operating within this kind of this new world, I guess, as we think about the way pricing starts to evolve and sort of how you -- how do you think this would impact your pharmacy business, particularly as you try to rollout RxAdvance further? Thanks.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think that's where they are right now. I mean they're pushing more and more for transparency and where it is for pass-throughs of the pricing and how they're doing it. So they really have moved away from just the pure rebate type model. And we're hearing more and more at the federal level about rebates and point of sale and that type of thing. So that that whole, it's all in transition, it's in flux right now and I think the things we can do and we can move to a net price type thing. Everybody can do much better with the transparency, the competitive bidding et cetera. So, as you're not playing with discounts and rebates and volumes and things. Here is the drug cost and it's particularly important in specialty pharma. So this is something that can imply the both. So I think the states are really adapting to it and have been, in their own way, moving more toward it, on an ongoing basis.

Charles Rhyee -- Cowen -- Analyst

And then maybe following up on -- thanks, and maybe following-up on Dave's question, in terms of sort of the governor for price increase in the future, you talked about price competition from transparency, but what about -- you know in many cases, right, a lot of these, particularly in specialty, a lot of these drugs are the only drug in the class, so there's really no competition. How do you -- how do you look to manage costs in those particular drugs, where there is little to no competition?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know you manage it through -- by managing the utilization effectively. I mean if you have only one drug, it is a curative drug. So you, I mean you negotiate the best deal you can, but rebates aren't going to help you there one way or the other. I mean it's -- you're not going to get rebates because they're going to be the same, so what you do is you manage the utilization and ensure that people getting a specialty pharma drug, where they use genome and other things, it's going to be supportive and helpful for them. You know if it's curative, you're going to get it for them and that's what's important. When the Hep-C drug first came out, they were expensive and it didn't take long before a second one showed up.

So it's not -- and usually not very long. I used to be in pharma side with Miles and eventually full time at Bayer and we learned very quickly, you know if you take your margins up too high, you're just leaving room for somebody coming under you. And so you're going to get competition very quickly if the pricing gets too abusive, does that help?

Operator

Our next question comes from Steve Tanal of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Steve Tanal -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Good morning, guys, thanks for taking the question.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Steve Tanal -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

I guess the -- I wanted to follow up on just sort of the HBR, the new program and then talk about DCPs for a second. So I guess, the way I'd come at this is, flattish HBR ex-Fidelis and HIF looks like a pretty solid outcome when you've expanded or entered into new programs in four new states. So I guess I'd first ask how those programs are shaping up in the early days. But it seems like the numbers would suggest quite good and so maybe the real question is around Jeff's comment on DCPs returning to the mid '40s.

From 47.9% at the end of the first quarter, 2.9 days, 3 days to get to 45%, let's say, it's sort of like $450 million of excess reserves using Q1 claims per day. So does that math sound right? Is it fair to think about that as an excess or are there seasonal fluctuations either on marketplace or otherwise we should be thinking of? And just finally, is there anything you tell us about sort of the path and time line to returning to mid '40s if that's the right level? Thank you guys.

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yes, certainly, Steve, a lot in that question. But I'll start with the DCP in the first. I mean what we're saying is that's our long-term range. That doesn't mean by the end of this year. There's a couple of things with the Fidelis on the cash timing that we're still working through that could reduce that sometime this year. So think of it as more like a day, maybe two by the end of this year. And ultimately when you look at DCP, a lot of that has to do with timing of payments, alright.

It's really a timing of payment measure, not necessarily how your reserves are and we look at reserves differently as a percentage of medical expense, which we've been very consistent over the -- since the last five, ten years, have had a very consistent reserving methodology. So I guess what I would say is, it's more timing related than anything.

The other thing is, we have obviously some risk-based contracts with some providers. Those accruals are in the IBNR balance, some of those accruals in the IBNR balance when those get paid, the IBNR goes down. So those are the things that we're dealing with and why we call out timing of payments from a quarter to quarter perspective.

Steve Tanal -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Perfect, very helpful, and just any comments on those -- on the new state programs, Florida, Illinois and...

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah, sure, on the HBR side, I guess what I would say is, it's in line with our expectations. You have to remember the Pennsylvania has an LTSS award. So it's going to be in the 90%-plus range from an HBR. So it's really a mix of business that obviously impact on the total HBR of the Company. But in general, those programs are -- and the expansions are running exactly in line with our expectations. And as Michael mentioned before, a lot of times there's continuity of care periods and then obviously you have to build margin on that additional new business and that impacts the HBR early in the program, but nothing outside of our expectations.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think -- if I may just add that, in the new plan, you don't have -- we used the date received methodology for calculating and its proved to be a very accurate way to do it versus creating claims, but you need the history of quarters -- two, three quarters to be able to do the accurate accounting of it. I think -- well, never say never, but we are proud of the fact you don't see a lot of prior period adjustments, and so it works. So rather than, take the chance, we typically will book it at 90% for the first three quarters or so. So just not knowing if it's where it is and that has typically served us well. So that's the approach we take to it.

Steve Tanal -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Perfect, thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ana Gupte of SVB Leerink. Please go ahead.

Ana Gupte -- SVB Leerink -- Analyst

Yeah, thanks good morning. Appreciate you taking the question. On the deal again, as you're having conversations with the DOJ, which I'm assuming will be the arbiter here in the states. As you have like a broad platform now across Medicaid exchanges and Medicare, do they view that in a favorable context and what types of -- you know what type of feedback are you getting from the DOJ and states if any, and how does that dovetail with kind of this integrated -- well it's not integrated duos but states looking for players to be in Medicaid to participate in these Special Needs Plans and so on in places like Florida.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I think the states recognize a leader. They recognize the systems and the capability we have to really improve outcomes and control costs on a very fair and balanced basis. So that goes a long way. Now, there has not been a -- this kind of Medicaid acquisition going back, I think they said it was Amerigroup was the last one that occurred, and so, these are new, they're reestablishing grounds. But when you look at this, it's a different form of competition, you have state setting rates, you have things of that nature. So it's working through and talking about all these elements and I don't want to get ahead of them, but we're finding that their questions are really the kind one should expect in this kind of transaction.

And it's constructive, and as I said, it's really focused in three areas, one (inaudible) what's best for the recipient because we're dealing with a fragile population, we emphasized that. And it's important to think about them to the provider network. This is not just gaining critical mass against them, but how do you get the kind of size and scale that allows you to do the risk-based contracting so many of them want and we show the data and what we can do, how we do that.

And thirdly the state, how waiver contain costs and how the benefit of large numbers, everybody wins on. So it's -- and it's been a -- an enlightening process and I think -- I'll add one other thing and we've done other deals, but I'm finding that we have a lot of very smart regulators at the state level and they're asking the right questions, they understand it, and they're able to think through it.

I find that positive and I think we're finding that the Justice Department is -- and the federal level there, they're equally trying to get this right. And so, I'm very encouraged just by the question, that doesn't guarantee the absolute maximum outcome here, I'm not trying to further than that, but I feel good about where it is at this point in time.

Ana Gupte -- SVB Leerink -- Analyst

Thanks for the update. And then one more on the Texas and the Louisiana reprocurements, any updates there?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

On the Louisiana, well, that just went in.

Kevin J. Counihan -- Senior Vice President of Products

Yeah, Louisiana, I think, is due to be submitted next week and no update on the Texas timeline other than what we've previously discussed, I think May or June timeframe.

Ana Gupte -- SVB Leerink -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Our next question comes from A. J. Rice of Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

A. J. Rice -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi. Yes, hi everybody. First one on the publicly staged comments, you highlight member retention being better and favorable risk adjustment, I wonder if you could flush those out a little more, what you're talking about there. And I think last call when the -- or maybe it was in the Investor Day when you gave guidance about the exchanges this year, you said you'd be in the 5% to 10% range, as last year but down slightly and margin within that range. Is that still your thinking or have you changed the way you think about what the margin looks like this year versus last year?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Alright, Jeff?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yes, thanks. A.J., it's Jeff. Yeah, no, nothing different than what we said in our -- in our previous guidance with respect to exchange. Yes, we do expect it to be a little bit down from 2018, more similar to '17, '16, '15, the margin that we had there. As far as the retention, I think we have a normal retention rate that we've assumed based on our historical experience, meaning how long a member stays with us and pays premiums. Obviously you can go back and look at the historical retention rate from beginning to end, and we've been obviously tracking that and what we're seeing is that members are actually staying and paying premiums longer, which is -- which is obviously a good thing and that's driving, I guess, the additional revenue that we added to the guidance today.

The other piece is risk adjustment, and on the risk adjustments side we have certain geographical areas where we've got a lot of scale. We've grown the business very successfully. And as you continue to grow and capture a larger percentage of that market, you do see a little bit of a return to the mean on the risk scores, nothing significant. But obviously, that was the other piece of the guidance increase on the revenue line.

A. J. Rice -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Okay. And then -- and just taking a quick glance at your 10-Q and I may -- I hope I have this right, it looks like you're up about $230 million in prior year development this year's first quarter versus last. And I know that's a gross number. Is that a function of the Fidelis and the exchange -- new exchange volume or is it -- what's driving that and any comment about that?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah, that's pretty much all related to Fidelis. We put a note actually in the table of our press release, kind of highlighting that the press release has a 12 month roll forward, which does not include the Fidelis business, because that transaction happened July 1st of last year. So, the development is not included in that 12 month roll forward. But in the 10-Q, that is a three-month roll forward from December's number, which obviously does include Fidelis. And so that's the difference there.

A. J. Rice -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Okay, alright, thanks a lot.

Operator

Our next question comes from Justin Lake of Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Justin Lake -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Thanks, good morning. Couple of follow-ups here; one on -- one on the PBM side the -- when you've looked at, now that you've had some conversations, I assume some greater conversations with WellCare Group on the -- on their ability to drive cost savings, and they've talked a lot about how much they've been able to say with CVS and use their scale. Is there any comparison, you've been able to kind of make versus your kind of cost of goods on the PBM side of Centene? And is it comparable? Is WellCare Group greater or are you guys greater? Any kind of color you can give us there?

Jesse N. Hunter -- Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy Officer

Yeah. Yeah Justin, this is Jesse. So I think just, obviously there is a limited amount that we can comment on with respect to relative pricing on those things and that's obviously we went through an appropriate process on that in the diligence phase and I think as we said as part of the announcement of the deal that there are kind of net synergies anticipated on the pharmacy front. So I don't think it wouldn't be appropriate to go into too much more detail than that at this -- at this point.

Justin Lake -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay, and then just following up on the risk adjustment side, can you give us an idea of how big you expect that risk adjustment payable to be at this point, given the kind of shift in the risk pool you're talking about here. And any impact or kind of update you can give us on margins that you're seeing kind of you as get a full look at the buck?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah, a couple of things Justin, I would say risk adjustment, obviously we continually update that estimate every single quarter, and so that changes. But I would say over $800 million is what we're anticipating on a risk adjustment payable for the year. On the margin side, it was right in line with our expectations. And obviously we expected and we're expecting for the year, a little bit lower in our margin range compared to last year. So nothing, nothing out of the ordinary there as the exchange business performed well, and it was right in line with our expectations for the quarter.

Justin Lake -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay, great, thanks for the color.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ralph Giacobbe of Citi. Please go ahead.

Ralph Giacobbe -- Citi -- Analyst

Thanks, good morning. Want to go back to Iowa quickly. I think in your prepared remarks, you said that those (inaudible) would be split equally, but the $500 million boost in your guide for the back half seems a little bit lighter, as I thought the United business was closer to the $3 billion annualized number. So, is that related to the mix? Is it maybe timing? Just hoping you can maybe reconcile that?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah. No, I mean, I think if you look at United, they had a larger percentage of the business. They didn't have just half. And so we've previously given a range of membership, I think of 180,000 to 200,000 members. So we've updated that to half the market and obviously you're only getting half the year, so nothing unusual other than the mathematics behind that.

Ralph Giacobbe -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay. And then you said you assume a higher MLR in new business, as you're talked about, which certainly makes sense. For this, just remind us, are you assuming a loss in year one or more breakeven and if it is assuming of a lot of breakeven?

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Breakeven.

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah, more break even, which is why you didn't see any earnings flow through on the increase in the revenue line for the six months. And we're not talking about '20, so just for the six months in '19, we're assuming breakeven.

Ralph Giacobbe -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Gary Taylor of J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Gary Taylor -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Hi, good morning. Just three clarifications, nothing original at this point and all financials; so sorry Michael, I'm going to go to Jeff.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. It's OK, I understand financials too, so...

Gary Taylor -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

That's fair. Well you can take a shot at this, just on days claims payable and I appreciate the comments about timing, and in fact, when I look at the roll forward for the first quarter in the Q, it does look like the ratio of current paid versus incurred slipped about 300 basis points year-over-year, from about 64% to 61% so. So a lot of that -- a lot of the impact on days claims payable does look like it's sort of timing related. Is there anything to call out in that or is this just illustrating the point that you were making earlier?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yeah. No, nothing to call out. I mean I would say that this is a three-month roll forward that's in the 10-Q, and so that number, I mean, we've only had three months of run out on those medical claims from December. So that number will, all things being considered would, in theory, continue to grow. So you have to -- that's only three months out and usually in the press release, it's a full year roll forward.

So, that number will continue to change, I guess, is what I would say. But no, nothing unusual, which is, I mean from our view, it's consistent -- it's consistent on a percentage of medical cost. That's how we track it. We show this information to our Audit Committee and Board every single quarter, it's been very consistent for a long period of time, the methodology hasn't changed, so we're comfortable where it is.

Gary Taylor -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Got you. And, just trying to understand on the investments, I got what you said about little bit higher balances and higher rates, but the investment income more than doubled year-over-year and about a 12% year-over-year increase in the investment balance, you called out a little better investment income in the quarter, but you also guided for that continuing for the year and part of the guidance raise. So is there any extra color on how you're doing so much better on investment income versus the growth investment?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Yes, sure. Good question, two things; Fidelis, so you have the impact of Fidelis, we have their investments. We didn't -- we didn't have those in the first quarter or second quarter of last year. So you get the full effect of the Fidelis investments. The other thing is on the health insurer fee, we had received payments for the last year's health insurer fee reimbursement from a lot of our states earlier than we have historically.

So think of that number to $300 million to $400 million that we have earlier in the year than we've had in the past and so you're earning investment income on that. And then obviously we had a strong cash flow generation for the quarter and a lot of that cash goes to the balance sheet, and we are in a short-term interest rate on it. So ultimately, you add up all those three things, and that's really driving the increase on a year-over-year basis.

Gary Taylor -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Okay. And then final one was, I think Scott had mentioned the 10-K disclosure about move -- starting in the second quarter, seeing some of specialty earnings moving to MCO intra company in the elimination, is the effect of that or what's driving that, merely less retained rebate at the PBM more going to the health plan or what's the dynamic that drives that?

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

No, it's nothing other than internal dynamics as far as the margin on -- as we move to transparent pricing, there used to be a margin there, that's no longer going to be there. That's going to be a small piece really on the administrative front, but the margin just moves into the health plan segment. So nothing other than I would say internal company activity.

Gary Taylor -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Michael Neidorff for any closing remarks.

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thank you for your questions, your attention and your participation. We're off to a strong start and looking forward to the Investment Day and future quarter reports. So have a good -- have a good day. Thank you.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Duration: 76 minutes

Call participants:

Edmund E. Kroll, Jr. -- Senior Vice President, Finance & Investor Relations

Michael F. Neidorff -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Jeffrey Schwaneke -- Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer & Treasurer

Josh Raskin -- Nephron Research -- Analyst

Kevin Fischbeck -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Sarah James -- Piper Jaffray -- Analyst

Peter Costa -- Wells Fargo -- Analyst

Scott Fidel -- Stephens -- Analyst

Kevin J. Counihan -- Senior Vice President of Products

Dave Windley -- Jefferies & Company, Inc. -- Analyst

Matt Borsch -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Charles Rhyee -- Cowen -- Analyst

Steve Tanal -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Ana Gupte -- SVB Leerink -- Analyst

A. J. Rice -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Justin Lake -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Jesse N. Hunter -- Executive Vice President & Chief Strategy Officer

Ralph Giacobbe -- Citi -- Analyst

Gary Taylor -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

More CNC analysis

Transcript powered by AlphaStreet

This article is a transcript of this conference call produced for The Motley Fool. While we strive for our Foolish Best, there may be errors, omissions, or inaccuracies in this transcript. As with all our articles, The Motley Fool does not assume any responsibility for your use of this content, and we strongly encourage you to do your own research, including listening to the call yourself and reading the company's SEC filings. Please see our Terms and Conditions for additional details, including our Obligatory Capitalized Disclaimers of Liability.