Peloton Interactive (PTON) Q4 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Peloton Interactive (PTON -0.97%)
Q4 2020 Earnings Call
Sep 10, 2020, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good afternoon. And welcome to Peloton's fourth quarter and fiscal 2020 year-end earnings conference call. Joining today's call are John Foley, our co-founder and CEO, President William Lynch, and CFO Jill Woodworth. Our comments and responses to your question reflect the management's views as of today only and will include statements related to our business that our forward-looking statements under Federal Securities Law.

Actual results may differ materially from those contained and or implied by these forward-looking statements due to risks and uncertainties associated with our business. For discussion of the material risks and other important factors that could impact our actual results please refer to our SEC filings in today's shareholder letter, both of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. During this call, we will discuss those GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation on GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures as provided in today's shareholder letter.

Lastly, I want to remind everyone that will be hosting a virtual Investor and Analyst session next Tuesday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. You can find the details on our IR website. We hope you can join us.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to John.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Peter. Hi everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss our fourth quarter and full fiscal-year results. What a remarkable year it's been.

We're saddened that a global pandemic continues to wreak enormous havoc prematurely claiming so many lives and bringing profound hardship to millions of others. But we remain hopeful that human ingenuity will be able to reign in this plague before too much more suffering occurs. We profoundly thank our frontlines healthcare workers and other essential workers continuing to keep us healthy and safe. This year has also brought back into focus long-standing societal injustices ingrained in our communities.

From Peloton's beginnings, we've endeavored to create an inclusive and supportive workplace and community for everyone, but the self reflection in the wake of this year's tragic events led us to believe we can and must do more. Peloton is committed to being an anti-racist organization and to help achieve that goal, we have made a $100 million commitment over the next four years across internal and external initiatives to fight racial injustice and inequity and promote health and well-being for all. I'm incredibly proud of the hard work of all Peloton team members. It has been another staggering year of growth, and I know all parts of the organization have had to work together to do everything possible to meet the incredible demand for our products and services.

The strong tailwind we experienced in March as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold has continued to propel the demand for our products into the fourth quarter and the first couple months of the Q1 fiscal year 2021. Organic demand for our Bike remains strong, and member engagement remains elevated despite improving weather and the gradual reopening of the brick and mortar fitness locations. With the unexpected continuation of these elevated sales trends, our teams have continued to grow our manufacturing base and expedited shipments of products where possible, while scaling delivery and member support teams. With that said, while we have reduced wait times for our Bike since May there remains much work to be done.

Amidst all of this, we have worked hard to innovate our content Connected Fitness product portfolio, and we are proud to introduce a major expansion of our hardware portfolio delivering on our promise of offering a better best product strategy for both Bike and Tread. Bike+ are an exciting new follow up to the bike that launched Peloton and created the Connected Fitness category brings a new 360-degree rotating display, enhanced sound, and digital resistance controls to provide a more seamless and immersive workout experience. We've listened to our member feedback and kept what's special about our original Bike but added features we know our members will love. The 360-degree rotating display allows members to easily pivot until the screen adding strength, yoga, and stretching to their routine or take our new Bike Bootcamp class series.

With the announcement of Bike+, we implemented a $350 price reduction to our original Bike which is now available for $49 per month on a 39-month zero percent APR financing. Over the last five years, we've been able to realize significant production and scale efficiencies, we're excited to pass those sick cost savings to prospective members. As of today, nearly all of our 103 showrooms are now open for appointments where members can see and try our new Bike+. The Bike+ is now available in the US, Canada, UK, and Germany.

On Tuesday, we also announced the coming availability of our new lower-priced Peloton Tread. Our new Tread brings all of the magic of the Peloton Fitness ecosystem from our immersive Running and Bootcamp classes to our interactive software and community to a more affordable smaller footprint. Despite the smaller size the Peloton Tread has ample running surface area and provides running comfort on a sleek belt drive. While we had hoped to launch our new Tread more quickly and in greater supply, we had to make some tough decisions regarding supply chain resource allocation due to the surge in demand we've been experiencing for our Bike.

We also felt it was important to introduce the full Bike and Tread portfolio of products all at once to give customers the best visibility to choose the product or products that fit their fitness goals. As you know, we won't cut corners when it comes to product quality or delivery standards as both are critical to delivering the best customer experience. We are as confident as ever that our new Tread combined with our existing Tread now known as Peloton Tread+ is a better best Tread hardware portfolio that represents an enormous growth opportunity for Peloton over the coming years, multiples of our Bike opportunity. As we view the Tread line as a portal to the full-body workout.

As we noted in our press release, our new Peloton Tread will be available in the UK on December 26, and in the US and Canada early next year, and Germany later in 2021. It has long been our goal to democratize access to fitness and lowering the price of our Bike, along with the introduction of our lower-priced Peloton Tread are important steps to achieving this goal. The heart of our strategy is increasing the value proposition of our platform, including expanding our portfolio of Connected Fitness products, investing in new fitness verticals adding innovative software features and continuing to improve our overall member experience. As member engagement rates continue to climb, we're lowering our member's cost per workout.

In the same vein in providing more value in conjunction with the launch of the Bike+, we're excited to debut our new series of Bike Bootcamp classes, and in the coming months, we'll have other exciting new content verticals available on Peloton Digital. To help prospective members assess how the value proposition of Peloton compares to their current fitness routines, we recently launched a value calculator on our website. We encourage you to visit and check it out so you can see how much time and money your household can save with the Peloton platforms over time. Onto our subscriber metrics.

We're thrilled to say that we passed a major milestone this past quarter growing our Connected Fitness Subscription base a 113% to over 1 million. As of June 30th, we had 3.1 million global members inclusive of our 1.09 million Connected Fitness Subscriptions and 317,000 digital subscribers. We remain very excited about Peloton Digital where we're seeing improved conversion and upgrade rates stemming from a lower price of $12.99 90-day free trial earlier in the year, and our improved value proposition with a broader library of non-cycling classes and access points across Apple, Roku, Fire TV, and Android TV. As of today, we have grown to nearly 500,000 digital subscribers.

While we have seen incredible growth in digital subscriptions, we do expect growth to taper in the coming quarters. Digital Fitness is a highly competitive category with a higher churn and lowers various to entry than our Connected Fitness Subscription and model. While we believe we have the best digital fitness experience with the broadest and deepest assortment of high-quality programming, we continue to focus on Digital as an acquisition channel, and added value for our Connected Fitness Subscriptions. And we're excited to say that Digital is emerging as our fastest, growing lead generation channel.

My favorite KPI is workouts represented by our Connected Fitness subscriptions. In the fourth quarter workouts reached 76.8 million, up 333% year-over-year equating to nearly 25 average workouts per Connected Fitness Subscription per month, compared to 12.0 workouts per subscription per month in the fourth quarter of last year. Our incredibly high engagement levels have resulted in continued low average net monthly Connected Fitness churn which for the quarter and full-year was 0.52% and 0.62% respectively. Peloton is a great example of our ability to deliver breakthrough member experiences that drive engagement while demonstrating the scale and commitment of our community.

Over the course of four weeks, this summer over 325,000 members participated in Pelothon logging over 9 million workouts and raising over $1 million for hunger relief. Before I turn it over to Jill to take you through the quarter and outlook for fiscal year '21, I'd like to extend my deep appreciation to our entire Peloton team. You've risen to every challenge this uncertain world has thrown at us and stayed true to our mission of bringing physical and mental well-being to our member community. As I often say, I'm proud to know you, to work with you, and to learn from you every day.

Thanks for what you do. Now, over to you, Jill.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, John. Before diving into the numbers, I'd like to highlight a change in the way we report our segment. With this quarter's release, we have folded in other segments which includes primarily Apparel sales into our Connected Fitness Products segment. As many of you know, a large percentage of our Apparel sales are related to Peloton's Referral program which helps drive sales of our Connected Fitness products.

Therefore this change in reporting reflects how we think about the interplay between Apparel and Connected Fitness products sales. Also, others represented less than 2% of our consolidated sales, and we believe narrowing our reporting to two segments offers a clearer picture of our operating results. To see how this change impacts our prior reported results, please see the reconciliation table in the appendix of our shareholder letter. Now, onto our results for the fourth quarter.

In the fourth quarter, we generated total revenue of $607 million, representing 172% year-over-year growth, exceeding expectations across all geographies. Our performance was driven by a significant number of undelivered Bikes carried over from Q3, expedited Bike shipments, and strong sustained demand throughout the quarter. While we had resumed Tread sales and deliveries in some markets toward the end of the fourth quarter, Tread+ had minimal impact on our revenue in the quarter. Gross margin in the fourth quarter grew to 47.6%, an improvement of 275-basis points year over year.

Our Connected Fitness product gross margin was 45.3%, exceeding our expectations despite including 60-basis points of impact from the inclusion of the other segment. The year-over-year improvement was driven by a mix-shift to Bike deliveries and continued product cost efficiencies achieved. Partially offset by overall expense growth, including expedited shipping of our products, and COVID related costs in the quarter. As of today, we have resumed normal delivery protocols for our Bike, Tread+ delivery, and service calls in nearly all of our markets.

Subscription gross margin for the quarter was 56.8%, and the Subscription contribution margin was 64.1% exceeding expectations primarily due to the leveraging of our fixed costs of content production. Total operating expense as a percent of revenue was 32.7% compared to 66.9% in Q4 of last year. We continued to pause the majority of our advertising spend which when combined with our sales performance drove the significant year-over-year improvement of sales and marketing as a percentage of revenue. With better than expected sales, better gross margin, and operating expense leverage, our Q4 adjusted EBITDA was $143.6 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.7%.

We're pleased that Q4 represented our first quarter of positive net income which was $89.1 million, or $0.27 per diluted share. We're proud of how quickly we've achieved our profitability, but our priorities are unchanged. We'll continue to invest aggressively in new product development, scaling our manufacturing capabilities, introducing new software features, and adding more Fitness and Wellness programming in order to capitalize on what we believe is a massive global market opportunity. We have a strong balance sheet with 1.8 billion of liquidity, and an untapped $250 million credit facility providing significant resources to continue investing in our platform to drive growth.

Now, onto our outlook. Given where we are in the quarter, plus our significant backlog of Bike deliveries, we have a solid view of our first-quarter results. You should expect our Q1 results to match closely to the guidance that we're offering you today. Looking further out into fiscal '21, we have had to make important assumptions regarding our performance, as well as the sales mix of our new products.

And while COVID-19 has clearly had a positive impact on our performance to date, the duration of the crisis and macroeconomic impact remains unknown. So while we aim to offer a realistic range of anticipated performance for fiscal year '21, we're also acknowledging that projecting more than a quarter out does present uncertainty. When we reported Q3 results in May, we'd expected demand to moderate in Q4. However, the unexpected increase in COVID-19 cases in many states starting in late June had sustained the imbalance of supply and demand in many geographies for us.

This has made it challenging to meaningfully reduce our order to delivery time frames in the US. While we have materially increased our production capacity in recent months and continue to grow our manufacturing capabilities, we do not expect to return to normalized order to delivery windows in the US, prior to the end of Q2 fiscal '21. In Q1, we expect revenue of $720 million to $730 million representing 218% year-over-year growth at the midpoint of the range. At the end of Q4, we had $230 million of Connected Fitness deferred revenue associated with Bikes ordered, but not yet delivered.

The price reduction of our Bike yesterday will impact revenue in Q, as we are proactively refunding all customers who received their Bike but are still within the 30-day home trial window. We are also refunding customers waiting for the delivery of their Bike. Those customers pending delivery can also opt to upgrade their order to Bike+ for an additional cost. Our guidance reflects the substantial refunds which reduced revenue for the period.

We believe these automatically funds are the right strategy for Peloton as a member's first organization. Also, current US Bike owners are eligible to trade it in for Bike+ and receive $700 in cash, a free yoga and toning accessories package, and free pickup. We were able to make this compelling offer because of our incredible logistics platform and partners who were able to perform reverse logistics at scale. Please note that the buyback program does not impact the P&L, only the balance sheet.

For fiscal '21, we are estimating total revenue in the range of $3.5 billion to $3.65 billion, representing 96% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We are incredibly excited to add our new Bike+ and lower-priced Peloton Tread into our product portfolio, which will drive additional growth for us going forward. The introduction of the new Peloton Tread though will have minimal impact on our revenue in fiscal '21 and will impact growth more meaningfully in fiscal '22 and beyond, as we ramp production and ensure a high-quality rollout as John noted earlier. In Q1, we forecast the end of period Connected Fitness subscriptions of 1.32 million to 1.33 million, representing 135% year-over-year growth at the midpoint.

For Q1, we expect to average net monthly Connected Fitness churn to be below 0.75%, reflecting recent trends. For fiscal '21, we forecast 2.05 million to 2.1 million ending Connected Fitness Subscriptions represent in year-over-year growth of 90% at the midpoint, an average net monthly Connected Fitness churn to stay under 1%. For Q1 and the full year, we expect a gross profit margin of approximately 41%. In Q1 and the full year, we expect Connected Fitness product gross margin to decline year over year to roughly 37% and 36% respectively.

This reflects the price change of our existing Bike, a mix-shift to Peloton Trend+, and further investments we plan to make as we continue to scale our manufacturing base and logistics platform. Subscription contribution margin in Q1 and the full year will be roughly flat year over year at 63% and 64% respectively. With the massive opportunity in front of us to grow our global Fitness platform, we continue to invest in Fitness content, while we expect some leveraging of content production costs. These efficiencies will largely be offset by increases in variable costs such as music, associated with the continued high engagement of our members.

A mix-shift to Digital subscription given the price change and performance of a 90-day free trial. Additional investments in new content verticals, and increasing our library of international and foreign language classes. However, our long-term target of achieving a greater than 70% subscription contribution margin remains intact. At this juncture, we expect moderate advertising spend in Q2 and more robust spend as we progress through the fiscal year.

With light marketing spend in the first half of the fiscal year, we will be able to deliver significant year-over-year leveraging in sales and marketing expense as a percentage of revenue in the full year. We will also continue to invest heavily in scaling our platform to people and technology, but expect General and Administrative expenses to show significant leverage as a percentage of sales. Research and development expense is expected to be flat as a percent of revenue year over year. Despite the reductions to gross margin in Q1 due to the price reduction on our original Bike and mix-shift to Tread+, we expect strong sales flow through leveraging effects costs and reductions to media spend to produce Q1 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $80 million to $90 million.

This represents an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.7% at the midpoint of the ranges. For fiscal '21, we expect adjusted EBITDA of $200 million to $275 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.6% at the midpoint of the ranges. I will now turn it over to the operator to take your question.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth of JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Doug Anmuth -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Thanks for taking the questions. One for Jill, and one for John. Jill, just on the 41% gross margin you talked about for fiscal '21. Can you just -- in the 37% Connected fitness, could just help us flesh out a little bit more around the gross margin profiles across the four pieces of hardware going forward.

Maybe just a little bit more on the puts and takes, and do you still expect Connected Fitness product gross profit to offset sales and marketing spending on a more normalized basis. And then John, you're clearly talking about strength in Bootcamps a lot more here, and we see that with the rotating screen on Bike+, and then also the Tread is a gateway to strength. What are your current views around the specific hardware product that's strength-focused. Thanks.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Great. Thanks, Doug. So first on gross margin. As you can imagine as we introduce new products were naturally faced with a higher cost structure until we can achieve quantities that allow us to take our costs down.

For us, it was really important to lower the price of our Bike by $350, but obviously that has an impact on our Connected Fitness gross profit margin but does represent a really important step for us in increasing the accessibility of our products. I would say, in terms of your question around is our deterioration in gross margin, offsetting still our sales and marketing expense, or what we have often referred to as net tack. The answer most definitely as you asked in your correct. We focus very much so on gross profit dollars, not gross profit margin.

Allowing us to do things like lower the price of the Bike. The only other color I would give you is that if you look across our Bike portfolio now that we've dropped the price of our original Bike, I would say those two products have similar gross margins. And our new Tread, and our existing Tread+ have very similar gross margin profiles as well.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. How are you, Doug. Could you connect. Yeah.

We as you know we love strength. We need to win strength from my perspective. We are growing too with a Bike line better best and our Tread line better best we're clearly going to win cardio. And so Strength is an important vertical for us to put a flag down on.

Clearly, if you're going to move all of your fitness programmings into the home strength, strength is another complement to your cardio that we need to win. I will remind you I think you know this Doug, with our new studios in New York and London, we have dedicated Strength studios within those broader studios. We're gonna have more and more programming for Strength training, not just the Bike Bootcamp but with the lower price Tread. The treadmill workouts and Tread Bootcamp which I've said in the past.

I think that is the best book best workouts because they're both cardio and strength. And so we think that our approach here is gonna be a winning approach with respect to other products in the marketplace. We haven't seen anything that we are personally that I'm not excited about. I like to work out with free weights, and bands, and body weight.

And we're gonna offer that in such volume that we think we're gonna be able to win with that with our current approach. So, does that answer your question.

Doug Anmuth -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Yes, that helps. Thank you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Heath Terry of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Heath Terry -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Great. Thanks. John, back in May, you all talked about doubling production capacity. Can you give us a sense of what you've been able to do to increase production capacity since then as demand has stayed at such an an elevated level, and how you envision managing, meeting the incredible demand that you're seeing now versus the risk of overbuilding ahead of what hopefully eventually becomes a sort of more normalized demand as we get back to whatever version of normal we're going to we're gonna get back to.

And then Jill, as we as we look at the margin guidance for the current quarter, and for the full year, can you give us a little bit more detail in terms of what role advertising plays within that. Obviously, a lot of the outperformance in this most recent quarter was driven by Peloton not really being on the air, and marketing the way that you were. At what point do you see the company coming back on to drive demand in your -- in that way in your financial forecast.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Heath, thanks for the questions. I will pass it over real quick to William Lynch, our president who I know you know in just a second. But I do want to say to your idea that we're building supply chain capacity. That's a term that's never been -- it's never come up in the past on senior leadership rooms or boardrooms.

What do we do to meet the current demand is absolutely a top 3 priority. And William can give you a little bit more color. But we believe that this opportunity globally and the same team in the new markets we're going into the coming years and the existing markets when we feel like there is such a massive opportunity that we need to invest heavily in the supply chain for years and years to maintain it. And we don't think that it's going to.

When you say normalized coming out of COVID, we don't see that. We see that we're going to be able to market into a massive opportunity that we're going to need supply chain capacity for years and years. So, but the short term dynamic which is real. I'll pass it over to William real quick.

William Lynch -- President

Heath, as you noted. We mentioned we were going to double our capacity, and we've done that. So thanks to the teams for being able to do that. As we think about our going forward, we are both expanding and investing in our own facilities.

As you know, we acquired Tonic and have been investing both in expanding existing factories, as well as building a new factory and Shinji that comes online in December, as well as working with our third-party partners to ramp up both Bike and Tread production. And so, we feel very comfortable that against the guidance still communicated we will be able to deliver products. And we also understand that the order to deliver through the first half which is the end of the calendar year is going to be longer than is our standard. As we look forward, the Shinji build-out and that coming online in December is going to be a big, big deal for us.

It's got flexibility for both by Bike and Tread significant unit capacity, and so we're excited about that. And that's going to give us continued growth overall in our production.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Great. And I'll take the second part which I believe was how we're thinking about sales and marketing expenses in fiscal '21. As you can imagine, it's a bit of a delicate balance for us. Of course, we have some new products that are now available Bike+ available now, and obviously Tread coming later this year in the U.K.

into the U.S. and Canada early next year. So, for us, we do think it's important to let the world know about our new products. But obviously, need to pay attention to order to deliver.

So I think what you'll see from us, obviously, the guidance in Q1 reflects light marketing spend similar to what you saw in Q4. Moderate marketing spends in Q2, and then probably a more normalized run rate as we move through the year. What that will obviously do to adjust the EBITDA margin is may get a little bit front half loaded for us. But again, we're excited to get back to being on air.

And then the last point I would make is, as we think about the long term, we do see us getting more efficient. We now have a growing product portfolio that provides us with potentially some marketing synergies down the road. We also have been studying the organic demand that we've been able to generate over the last six months as well. So, we do think coming out of all of this.

We will see additional efficiency in our sales and marketing spend as we move forward.

Heath Terry -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Great. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Justin Post of Bank of America. Your question, please.

Justin Post -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. Thank you. First of all, thanks for providing full-year guidance. Most companies are not doing that.

It's brave. I was wondering if you could talk about the contribution of the new product to the year. How you're thinking about how much in maybe units, and how they'll affect ASPs. And then second, I was wondering you do have the ability to return your Bike I guess for $700 of credit.

What are you going to do with those, and are you thinking about a refurbished program. Thank you.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Great. I will take the first question, and then maybe William if you want to talk about the buyback program that could make some sense. So, first off, I would say, in terms of product mix we don't like to give very specific mix information. We've obviously done a ton of research over the course of the last several months to come up with some assumptions for our model.

But I think what I would say is that we believe our original Bike will continue to be our largest SKU. Again, we're very excited to lower the price of the Bike to make our products more accessible and at $49 a month for 39-months financing. We think that'll be a very compelling offer, and really help us expand our serviceable, addressable market. We're also excited that we did reignite our Tread+ deliveries at the end -- the very tail end of Q4.

So we do think throughout the year we'll see additional sales now coming from Tread+. And obviously, toward the back end of the year as we launch our lower-priced Tread, we will see some mix-shift very back end loaded into the model. And as it relates to Bike+ again, I would say in pecking order probably would come behind our original Bike in terms of volumes that we expect for the year. In terms of lower price tread, we really think that'll be a major driver in fiscal '22.

William Lynch -- President

Thanks, Jill. On the point on trade and we'll just reiterate a bit with Jill's opening remarks that we are refunding every single consumer that awaited delivery of the Bike. So currently, awaiting delivery $350 with the price drop as well as those that were within the 30-day return window. And we feel like that's extremely members first.

In fact, we've been at this a long time, and most companies just don't do those types of things. But we feel like those substantial refunds that Jill noted are a great investment in optimizing member goodwill. And so those will be substantially completed by the end of this week. And we appreciate our Member Experience team getting those refunds to consumers.

To your point on Tread, we're excited. We feel like that's a rich offer. It's also in terms of ease. It's fairly frictionless to trade in and get the $700 plus the accessories bundle.

And also, we will pick up your Bike. And then as you noted, we do have plans to offer a CPO program. We are not announcing, and that will be in the future, and we're not announcing that today.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

let me just say real quick to that as a complement to that. One of the beautiful things about this global platform we're building, as you think about the logistics footprint that we are delivering the majority of our Bikes and Tread globally at this point including the U.K., Canada, and Germany. That logistics footprint becomes a pretty powerful reverse logistics platform for this -- for the buyback program and the eventual certified preowned product that we will offer to the consumers in the coming year. So we're excited to get that inventory, and we'll have future announcements about that opportunity.

Justin Post -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of [Inaudible] of Cowen. Your line is open.

Unknown speaker

Great. Thanks. Two questions. Just given the ramp in production as we head into -- what is typically the biggest seasonal quarters propel time on 2Q and 3Q.

Could you discuss Peloton's ability to meet the holiday demand? And then secondly, I know the 10-k is not out yet, but any update on the material weaknesses and reporting around controls. Thank you.

William Lynch -- President

On the holiday demand. This is William. I'd mentioned it earlier we feel comfortable that we're in a position to meet the holiday demand on Bike and tread. That's within a forecast.

Of course, as we've seen with COVID and we noted in our statements, Peloton has seen a surge in demand, and so we've been busy expanding capacities in the ways I discussed earlier. We feel like we have a great team making investments that Jill noted aggressively to expand the supply chain. And so at this point, we feel like we've got a great plan in place and we've got a demand forecast. And so we expect to fulfill that demand, albeit with the longer order to deliver than we'd like.

We're accustomed to it. That will start to be based on our projections as we get into Q3 and Q4.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Great. And on the second question, John as you will see when our 10-k does come out tomorrow that our teams have worked very hard, but successfully to remediate all of our material weaknesses. We have made incredible progress across the company bolstering systems, people controls, and just wanted to say I am incredibly proud of the team and their accomplishments here. So we're excited about it.

Thank you for asking.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Devitt with Stifel. Your line is open.

Scott Devitt -- Stifel Financial Corp. -- Analyst

Thanks. I had two. The first one just an additional question on manufacturing dynamics. I was curious how much is now being done in-house versus the third party, and where you're expecting that to balance out over time.

And then secondly, there is a lot of user data that you collect that can be economically beneficial to the community especially if corporates and health providers, and life insurance companies are willing to offer premium discounts in exchange for confirmed efforts at maintaining health. And it seems like a pretty big untapped opportunity for the company. I was wondering if you could talk about any efforts in this area. Thank you.

William Lynch -- President

We don't split out the inventory out of our own factory through three fields. I think we've said the majority are now coupled with the Tonic acquisition coming from our own factories. Our manufacturing partners are valued, and we wouldn't be able to fill the demand without them just a point on that as well it's not just production when we think about our logistics for the holiday. The warehouses we've expanded, the number of vans for deliveries both in the US and our international markets, as well as our field ops teams.

As John noted, our logistics team we feel like it's a real competitive advantage that we plan them and are hiring and have been training for a while. So we feel really good about that. And then I guess, I'll turn it over to John, for the second question.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I'll help here. You're absolutely right about the opportunity we see with corporates and insurers. We think that this is a massive opportunity and potentially a very big growth vector for us in the coming years.

We don't have anything to announce right now, but I like where your head is. Specific to data. Sharing data is a very tricky thing in this world and something we take very seriously. So with respect to our customer's data, we do not have any plans to share it in any scary way that would be offsides and be on the wrong side of the line with our members.

So, I put an asterisk on the opportunity, but with respect to sharing data because that's not something we're going to run headlong into even though it comes up a lot. I feel like eight or nine years I've been being asked about what our plan is with the data, and we've never had a plan other than to protect it. But we do see a big opportunity with corporate insurers shows, and I'm sure in the coming quarters we'll have something to talk about.

Scott Devitt -- Stifel Financial Corp. -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Bernie McTernan of Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.

Bernie McTernan -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

great. Thank you for taking the question. I was just wondering if there is any update on the 14 million service or addressable market. last guys.

Last quarter you guys said it was bigger. Now with the lower-priced products. I'm assuming there's an impact, and how we should gauge the impact between cutting the price on the Bike versus lower price Tread. And then also, insurance comment below lower expectations for the past few quarters.

Can you isolate the benefit of reactivation versus normal disconnects.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Hi. So first of all thanks for your first question. Of course, we've long believed that our price points have represented one of the biggest barriers to the purchase of our products.

And obviously, we've done things in the past to move the needle and grow our market like financing programs. And obviously, last year in the fall when we launched a 30-day home trial. As you can imagine this has been a big week for us because making our products more affordable without sacrificing quality, or member experience has been our goal from day one. So I think the short answer is yes.

We do believe, of course, lowering the price of our product will have an impact on our serviceable, addressable market. And obviously, the introduction of the lower price Tread, we've said this before, we think of two to three x the opportunity of Bike. But if you join next Tuesday at our Investor and Analyst session, we have been working hard on updating this analysis that we presented around the time of the IPO. So we will share that next Tuesday.

In terms of churn. I would first and foremost say that the largest source of churn in any given month is a soft churn. But of course, what we've seen over the last several months it may be people that have been idle for some time and then they've been sheltering in place. What we've seen is is an uptick over the past couple of quarters of reactivation of those members.

So, but I will say first and foremost the biggest contributor to churn is soft churn which is credit cards getting declined most of the time unintentionally.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from the line of [Inaudible] of GMP Securities. Your line is open.

Unknown speaker

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I want to ask a little bit more about the demographics here. Jill and John, I think we've talked about this in the past with 35 -- under 35 years still, the fastest growing is still the fastest-growing, I think that was like 20% of new sales last quarter.

Do you just talk about the demos that you're seeing in terms of years. And then, household income. And then John, when we talk about digital. Additional started growing as fast as they are the free trial going back down to 30 days.

Can you talk about conversion rates from free to paid. But then ultimately into purchasing a product. And why not keep it at 30 at 90 days. Why come down to 30.

Understood there's a cost there. But if it's a large acquisition tool. Maybe that can help. Thank you.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Great. Hi. I'll take the first one and then John if you want to chime in on digital. We continue to make a lot of progress appealing to younger and less affluent households which have been a game of golf that promotes both over the last couple of years.

I'm happy to report those under 35 are still the fastest-growing segment when you look at the data from the full-year fiscal 2020. And again, in terms of reaching a broader socioeconomic range, we estimate that households earning less than $100,000 in annual income are around 46% or so of sales. So we will also feel like you guys are reading my mind. We will also address more specifics around demographics during our Investor and Analyst session next week.

But we're very excited about the progress we've made. And obviously, I think with the price reduction, I think we're going to see that needle move even more.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

And like you said, we think as you heard in my preamble that we have close to 500,000 thousand paying digital subs right now which is fantastic, and kudos to the team. With respect to metrics conversion and cohorts and all that stuff. The annoying thing about our Digital business is there's so much fantastic innovation including just in the last few months that adding Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, late last year Android TV, Roku TV, a couple of months ago, and so many changes to the conversion funnel and the software and at adding content that it gets better with every cohort. So it's hard to look at the trends in that business because it's just moving so quickly in a pro-consumer way.

So in the coming quarters, I think we can have more clarity for you. But at this point where it's a nascent business, we run it at breakeven. It's not going to be a big driver of a bottom line. And like we said in our preamble the most exciting thing for us right now that it's become our fastest-growing conversion to Connected Fitness subscribers which is what we were hoping for.

Unknown speaker

Great. Thank you, guys. Congrats again.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from [Inaudible]. Your line is open.

Unknown speaker

Hey guys, thanks for taking the question. So you had a 47% gross margin on the Connected Fitness segment, and based on the rough math approximately the price reductions on the Bike accounts for approximately 10 to 12 points of margin impact. Jill, you noted that the new Bike+ also has a similar margin. I believe in response to Doug's question is that just due to a higher bill of materials or is there also higher cost in production operations with the new Bike+.

I guess what I'm trying to understand is that can we expect this 37, 38, or high 30s gross margin to go higher over time as you achieve efficiencies on the production side.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I mean if you look at our track record on our original Bike, I mean if you look back to our gross margin five, six years ago when you look at the progress we've made is it cost us a dollar or five-six years ago, it now cost us $0.30 to $0.40 to make. And so what is so exciting about Peloton's business is that we're a business of very few skews. And in the world of fitness that is relatively unique, and for us as we grow and scale each of our products, and again we're going to have a very pruned portfolio of products. We're going to be able to achieve these efficiencies over time.

So obviously, the steak I put in the ground was really around the original Bike today, and Bike+ carrying similar gross margins. But again, as we continue to build a million,2 million, 3 million, we're going to realize even more product efficiencies. But again, we love this idea that we're able to give a lot of those efficiencies back to the customer to continue to plow that into to continue to grow the top line.

Unknown speaker

Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe one question for John. So with the gym integration.

Obviously the user experience is great. Where else do you see opportunities to partner with large ecosystems like Apple over the long term. Thank you.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Well, that's a good question. I wish there were more obvious integrations. You know we were trying to partner with all the big platforms. But again, with respect to data it becomes pretty tricky of who's getting, who's data and how does that member feel about it.

So we were very happy about the Apple integration -- Apple Watch integration. And to be totally honest that was that that came from our members like a lot of our R&D and a lot of our new products, and new features ideas that our members are pounding the table saying, we need this. We want this. So that was a big one, and we were excited to offer it.

But at this point, we're not going to announce any other ones other than there are tons of innovation taking place. We're trying to keep our R&D dollars at some meaningful percentage of our top line. So we're investing in software engineers, and hardware engineers as you can imagine so that there's continued innovation in the coming years.

Unknown speaker

Got it. Ok. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Lee Horowitz of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Lee Horowitz -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Thanks for the question. 2 If I may. John has the massive adoption of the connection in this category during this COVID changed. How you're thinking about the timeline toward geographic expansion beyond your current footprint.

And then Jill, maybe touching on some of the comments around Digital only. Does your guidance assume that this improved conversion of the digital-only subscribers to four Connected Fitness subscribers maintained throughout the year, slows down or how should we be thinking about that sustainability throughout the year. Thanks, so much.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. With respect international, to be honest it hasn't changed either our ambitions or our plan. Luckily cabin corners and the leadership over there. I've been doing a fantastic job of preparing for new markets that we would hope to get into in the coming years.

New languages, we're also excited about Jenn Cotter and Kevin Chorlins on the content side. They are thinking about language-specific opportunities. So we've been fortunate that those leaders and those teams have been ambitious, and relatively unhindered by the realities of COVID that have impacted some of our other parts of our business. So we hope in the coming quarters and years to have some more updates there specific that like we said in the past, we have global ambitions and we're excited to get into more countries in more languages as soon as we can.

William Lynch -- President

It's been just a great line. John's point on international you know with Germany and the U.K. We're in the number two and number three fitness markets in the world. And as you know, we're also in Canada and we feel like we've got great momentum there.

So in the short term, we're really focused on continuing to invest in both those markets. In Germany for example which is our newest market, we continue to invest in marketing and opening new stores during COVID when we were largely off on marketing in the US and that was to quickly establish leadership in the Connected Fitness market. So we feel like we still have a lot of upside against our current international strategy acknowledging our ambitions that John just mentioned.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Great. And on Digital as you know, Digital is still a very important product for us. And we know stand-alone fitness content is a highly competitive high-term business. Although we do understand that our churn is much lower than other fitness apps, and we do believe we have the best content available.

Given this work, we don't really guide on digital subs. We did no earlier in the call that we have nearly 500,000 paying digital subs today. That's largely the result of our pricing change we made last year. And obviously, the success of the 90-day free trial that we offered in March and April this year.

But don't expect that level of growth to come through in the balance of the year. I'd also highlight that where it really has impacted our outlook for fiscal '21 is our Digital shop that $12.99 is less profitable than our Connected Fitness Subscription business. And so because we're seeing numbers that are much larger today than they were a year ago it is a little bit of a drag. It's one of the offsets to some of the fixed costs leveraging that we're getting in the Subscription business.

But you know again as John noted earlier, we're so excited about it as an acquisition channel, and we're excited that the content and the platform keeps getting better and better. And so we still see it as an incredible value that we're giving to our Connected FItness subscribers. And again, this great acquisition channel.

Lee Horowitz -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

And I guess that acquisition channel. I guess a conversion met to hold throughout the year, and this uptick in conversion you're seeing two to four Connected Fitness.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, that's right. Go ahead, William.

William Lynch -- President

Yeah. No worries. You know we're getting better at converting and that has us excited. If you look at we measure classes and cohorts, so if you look at the classes digital subs from three years ago and month one through months six, months 12 months 24, we as you might imagine, we measure the upgrade to Connected Fitness on a daily weekly monthly basis.

And what we've shown is that every month and every year. And frankly in a more accelerated way in the last 18 months, we've been getting more and more effective on those upgrades. And so that has us excited. John noted, some of the tactics we're using to enhance that some of the in-app getting to understand the digital sub better what hardware platforms are interested in being able to surgically get them into content that might lead them into Connected Fitness.

So while we're not guiding to it we are focused on it. We've got a whole team on it. It's a big deal for us, and it's why we think that the app and digital is such an effective weapon in our marketing arsenal. And why frankly, it's it's a leading lead source for Connected Fitness, new Connected Fitness customer stack.

Lee Horowitz -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Thank you. The next question comes from James Hardiman of Wedbush Securities. Your question, please.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Good evening. Thanks for sitting me in. So the Connected Fitness Club growth has obviously been fantastic. But if I look back, you guys crossed that million sub Mark less than halfway through the quarter.

And I'm doing the math right then that pace slowed a bit during a final couple of months. I guess A, is that math right. And B, why would that have been the case given all the investments made in manufacturing capacity.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

It's precisely that. I mean obviously, we have about an eight week lead time when we put in a purchase order, or when we decide we need a product to the time we can get that product landed here. So for us, we started to see as you can imagine toward the end of the fourth quarter much more constraints on supply. So it's precise that it was, we just -- we were constrained by supply.

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Ok. And then maybe, if I can dig in on the margin side just a little bit here. Obviously, margins have been arguably the biggest area of upside versus expectations. I'm just trying to figure out how much of that is still a function of the pandemic as we look to the future guidance.

And how much is just you're able to leverage your fixed costs to a much higher degree. So maybe speak to I guess A, do you think you'd be profitable today on the EBITDA line if we were at more of normalized marketing spend. And B, as I think about the guidance for fiscal '21, you expect to be profitable in each of the fourth quarters. Obviously the first quarter's sounds like it's going to be the best of the quarters, but how should I think about the final three quarters of the year.

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So I think first off I think there's a lot in there. You were talking I think initially about gross margins and probably more so the upside surprises have been in Connected Fitness. And then maybe go back in the EBITDA that makes sense is that correct.

In terms of -- Yes, I mean in Connected Fitness the first thing to understand is --Obviously that you know that's everything from product cost to logistics. And so there is a lot that moves the needle within it. I will say in Q4 our expectation was that we would have to expedite more shipments of Bikes, and we ultimately didn't need to do that. And so that was a big driver of us exceeding our expectations there.

And of course, as you noted, we do -- we did see again, as we continue to scale our products we are seeing more product cost efficiencies than we expected as well. So it just happens to be an area where there's just a lot going on it. Sometimes can be a little bit challenging to predict given that things are moving often in different directions where they can all move in the same direction and provide a bigger swing to the upside. So certainly take your point that was well ahead of expectations.

But I would say, we were really expecting more shipping costs and then we needed to have in the model. As it relates to EBITDA, I said earlier I think if you look at EBITDA how that first half to second half clearly with us ramping our marketing in Q2, it's really more weighted to the first half. But the least for the time being our belief is that we will be profitable and every quarter. We're going to be unlike other years where we're very heavily weighted in Q2 and Q3 because of COVID.

Because of the new products. Because of the lower price on the original Bike. You're seeing more serial quarter over quarter growth which for us is very different from previous years where Q2 and Q3 are typically bed quarters for us. And so I think you're gonna see a little more smoothing this year in revenue than in previous years.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to John Foley for closing remarks. Sir.

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Everyone. Thank you, Jill. In closing, I want to propose a pretty simple concept that fitness is moving into the home because home is a better location.

With roughly 35 million treadmills in US homes today, American consumers have said that they want fitness at home. It just hasn't worked until now. People are now moving on to Peloton because of our incredible instructors. Because of our strong and supportive community.

Because of our best in class hardware, our networked in Game of five software, our low-class music, our unparalleled delivery experiences and so much more. Again, these are not COVID dynamics. These are fundamental, sustainable dynamics that meet people where they are with content and programs that exceed their fitness and wellness goals and make it fun and engaging to work out at home. For the first time, full stop.

Finally, a huge thank you to our team, you are all incredible. What a wild six-months of crazy hard work it has been for all of us. Thank you for everyone. Thank you for everything you do to help our members with their physical and mental health.

It has been more important this year than ever. And with that, thank you all for tuning in. Talk to you next week for our first Annual Investor Day and or our next quarterly earnings call in November. Good night, everyone.

Thank you.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 65 minutes

Call participants:

John Foley -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Jill Woodworth -- Chief Financial Officer

Doug Anmuth -- J.P. Morgan -- Analyst

Heath Terry -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

William Lynch -- President

Justin Post -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Unknown speaker

Scott Devitt -- Stifel Financial Corp. -- Analyst

Bernie McTernan -- Rosenblatt Securities -- Analyst

Lee Horowitz -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

James Hardiman -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

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