Embraer Brazilian Aviation Co (ERJ) Q3 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

Embraer Brazilian Aviation Co (ERJ -0.74%)
Q3 2020 Earnings Call
Nov 10, 2020, 9:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the audio conference call that will review Embraer's third-quarter 2020 results. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and webcasted at ri.embraer.com.br. This conference call includes forward-looking statements or statements about events or circumstances which have not occurred. Embraer has based these forward-looking statements largely on its current expectations and projections about future events and financial trends affecting the business and its future financial performance.

These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, including, among other things, general economic, political, and business conditions in Brazil and in other markets where the company is present. The words believes, may, will, estimates, continues, anticipates, intends, expects, and similar words are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Embraer undertakes no obligations to update publicly or revise any forward-looking statements because of new information, future events, or other factors. In light of these risks and uncertainties, the forward-looking events and circumstances discussed on this conference call might not occur.

The company's actual results could differ substantially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Participants on today's conference call are Mr. Francisco Gomes Neto, president and CEO; Mr. Antonio Carlos Garcia, chief financial officer and procurement; and Mr.

Eduardo Couto, director of investor relations. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Francisco Gomes Neto. Please go ahead, sir.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much for participating in this conference call. I'm Francisco Gomes Neto, president and CEO of Embraer. Before giving the floor to Antonio Garcia, our CFO, I would like to make some initial comments.

With the recent growth in the number of COVID-19 cases in different parts of the world, notably in Europe and in the United States, we remain focused on the health and safety of our people, assessing the situation on a daily basis at each of our units around the globe. Regarding finance, our focus in the short-term remains on preserving cash through the execution of a series of measures implemented over the past few months, which I have already discussed with you during our past earning calls. In parallel, we are preparing the ground for a much better financial performance in 2021 and growth in the following years. Today, I'd like to take a few minutes to focus on some of our priorities, namely a lean organization and recapture synergies and business plan updates.

Next slide, please. Regarding our lean organization and recapture synergies pillars, we have made every effort to maintain the know-how and competitive advantage brought by our remarkable people. But in view of the new marketing reality, it has become essential to review our workforce. And in the last quarter, we made a significant adjustment to our structure.

We analyzed these structures in teams of each area within the company with the goals of creating a leaner and more agile organization and eliminating the duplications generated by the commercial aviation carve-outs. We have already recovered synergies with the reintegration of commercial aviation and the associated services and support, and at the same time, we have retained all the skills necessary to return to growth in the coming years. A simpler and leaner organization has been prepared for properly implementing our '21-'25 strategic plan, a theme that we'll address on the next slide. While we're dedicated to managing the impacts generated by the crisis in the short term, over the past few months, we have also focused on updating our business and growth plan.

We believe that the period between now and 2025 can be divided into three phases. This year is dedicated to crisis response. Starting next year, we expect that the market will start to recover with variations depending on the specific business areas and markets. And from 2022 onwards, our projects will mature and allow us to grow profitably.

Regarding the Embraer '21-'25 strategic plan, we have reviewed the details over the past few months, in response to the new market scenario, including the impacts generated by the pandemic, the end of the agreement with Boeing, and the reintegration of commercial aviation. This was a collaborative effort involving dozens of company leaders, who focused on the plan's effectiveness and we know it is realistic. The goals are challenging, but doable, and we will execute with focus, governess, and discipline. The plan has two main objectives: to increase your revenue and to improve profitability.

To achieve these two objectives, we define these three lines of action. Number one, initiatives aimed at efficiency gains; number two, actions to increase the sales of our current product portfolio; and number three, a combination of business diversification projects, innovation, and strategic partnerships. In total, the plan comprises 18 projects that will bring you more agility and intelligence to the processes and reinforce alignment across the company. Just to give you a little more visibility, the first front which is related to efficient gains entails the creation of a world-class purchasing organization, reporting to the CFO, and focusing in a very structured way on intelligent cost reduction.

At the same time, we're incorporating more intelligence into the processes within the material planning and logistics area, focusing on increasing eventual return to reduce substantially working capital. In operations, the process aims to reduce aircraft production cycles, which will allow us to have more competitive products and reduce the working capital as well. Regarding the second front, dedicated to the growth of portfolio sales, we'll intensify the sales efforts of our products, the benefit from new and competitive products in every segment in which we operate. Additionally, we'll focus on adapting and converting aircraft for specific segments, such as converting E-Jet to carry cargo into the passenger cabin, or the recently launched Phenom 300 Med, which was designed for medical evacuation.

Finally, on the diversification, innovation, and partnerships front, we're going to expand our operations. This year, we have already announced investments in cybersecurity with the acquisition of Tempest, the Frigate project with the Brazilian Navy, and more recently, the creation of EV, a company dedicated to the development of the Urban Air Mobility Ecosystem and eVTOL, electrical Vertical Landing and Take-Off aircraft. From this front, we are also developing projects to expand our service offerings for aircraft from other manufacturers. And we're discussing potential strategic partnerships aimed at opening new markets and developing new products such as the turboprop.

It's important to note that, in addition to managing where we structure the project, the plan focused on the process of execution and on the constant monitoring of the evolution of all initiatives. We're aware of the challenge we have ahead, especially in commercial aviation in 2021, but we're very confident in the future of Embraer. We know what must be done. We know how the plan should be carried out, and we have an immensely competent and aligned team that will develop the necessary initiatives to make the company grow profitably in the coming years.

With that, I have concluded my comments and I would like to give the floor to our CFO, Antonio Garcia. Over to you, Antonio. Thank you all.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Francisco. Good morning, everyone. It's really a great pleasure to talk to all of you. Now moving to the commercial aviation highlights on Slide 7.

During the third quarter, we delivered seven E-Jets, representing a sequential improvement compared to the first and second quarters that we will accelerate even more in the fourth quarter. Among our third-quarter deliveries, we had 5, 175s for United airlines, highlighting our continuous leadership in U.S. regional jet market. As another example of our continuous improvement, have already delivered more plans in October than in the entire third quarter of 2020.

As far as new operators, all airlines from Australia received 14 pre-owned E190s and Bamboo Airways from Vietnam, we start-up operation with two E195. We are still not in the point where we can give guidance on expected deliveries or financial performance due to the COVID-19 uncertainties. But we would like to point out that we remain cautiously optimistic for the future as we have seen a gradual rebound in domestic flight activities in several markets around the world, including the United States. Looking at commercial aviation in 2021, the uncertainty around the COVID pandemic is still our biggest concern for next year.

The fleet of 175 in operations continues to improve with 93% in service as of the end of September, outpacing our competitors in the market. I'm also proud to say that we had zero cancellation of commercial jet orders since the beginning of the COVID pandemic. The active debts on Slide 8. We had a strong delivery pickup during the third quarter with 21 deliveries.

This brought the total executive debts delivered so far in 2020 to 43 aircraft. We expect the fourth quarter to remain strong forever, and deliveries should continue to increase compared to the previous quarter. As a result of higher deliveries, improved mix, and measures taking to be more cost-efficient, the executive debt segment posted positive operating margins in the third quarter and year to date. Marking, the continuous turnaround of our profitability on this segment despite the COVID-19 pandemic.

Also, as mentioned in the last call, we launched the Phenom 300 Med during the third quarter, which is a unique mid rack solution that's also available for hetero pits on existing Phenom 300s. In terms of new technology, Embraer continues to disrupt the media segment with praetors, HEPA Filters, now being standard while lavatory electrical doors and synthetic vision systems were both certified during the quarter. Finally, we would like to highlight the continued recovery during the third quarter, in particular with respect of the fractional and charter operation, with the smaller and medium jets. Among fractional images activities were down only 13% year over year, comparing to the media debts down to 18% and larger jets 33%.

Among charters, the jet activities were almost flat versus last year. While the medium and larger debt class were down 5% to 70%, respectively. As you can see, the MAX where labor is positioned with the Phenoms praetor is recovering faster. Moving to Slide 9, we showed the highlights of defense and security.

We regarded the C-390 Millennial program. We are currently six C390 in various stages of production for future deliveries to Brazil and Portugal, and we expect to deliver one more aircraft to the Brazil Air Force still this year. The program also received the 2020 Grand Laureate awards for defense from the aviation week, which selects the best aircraft program, black horse, commercial executive defense around the world. Another highlight during the quarter was the Super Tucano as Embraer was able to deliver 10 planes to international customers.

With the reopening of global borders, we were able to deliver Super Tucanos to Nigeria, Chile, and the Philippines. Finally, the first grip and E1 arrived in Brazil to start its flight test company, which is a major milestone in the Brazilian jet fighter program with Saab. Embraer, we all also play a leading role in the execution of the program in Brazil. And we'll be responsible for the systems development, integration, flight testing, and final sale and delivery of the aircraft to the Brazilian Air Force.

Now turning to services and support on Slide 10. We are proud to say that Embraer, once again, was ranked first in pro-pilot's corporate aircraft process support survey in 2020, underlining our commitment to customers to provide the best after-sales support possible. Our services and support team also completed the seven conversion of a Legacy 450 to Praetor 500 since this service became available early this year. We were also able to get the certification in the third quarter of the first E-Jets modified for cargo transportation in cabins, offering our customers a solution to better utilize their fleets in the environment of lower passenger traffic caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Further in Servicing, we are pleased to see that the KC-390 Millennial has been showing excellent reliability in the Humanitarian missions in Brazil and abroad. Moving on to our financial results on Slide 12. Our backlog finished the third quarter at $15.1 billion, representing several years of revenue for Embraer. It is important to highlight again that despite some deferrals, we didn't have any cancellation in commercial aviation.

And we expect some new sales to potentially lead to a backlog expansion in the upcoming quarters, depending on the impacts of a second COVID wave in certain regions. On Slide 13, we show revenues and deliveries. We can clearly see an improvement in the third quarter relative to what we had in the first and half of the year and the impacts of COVID on the industry start to reduce with a higher commercial and executive jets delivered in the quarter. As I mentioned earlier, we expect an even better fourth quarter compared to the third quarter.

We also had a strong revenue improvement in defense and security, following the reopening of international borders to allow for the deliveries of Super Tucanos. Our services and support business, despite a year-over-year decline due to the COVID-19, has also increased double digits sequentially from the second quarter with transportation improved activities across the commercial jets in the defense markets. Next, on Slide 14, Embraer highlights its continued cost control and selling and unrestrictive expenses. The reduction of SG&A reflects our ongoing efficiency structure actions, as already mentioned earlier in this presentation combined, of course, lower marketing expenses coming from the COVID-19 restructuring.

It is important to mention that selling expenses include higher bad debt provisions compared to last year, mostly related to our services and support receivables. Excluding the bad debt provision, SG&A expenses on a year-to-date basis in 2020 are 30% lower than the same period of 2019. On Slide 15, we show our operating results. Embraer reported adjusted EBIT of a loss of $45 million in the third quarter with a margin of minus 6%.

The adjusted EBIT in the third quarter excluded a positive impact of $7 million from special items, including $54 million in charge related to our restructuring announced in September and $30 million in additional bad debt provision, offset by $75 million deposits new reveres of noncash impairments charged in executive and commercial aviation. Breaking our third-quarter margin by business, executive jets was positive 2%; services and support, 4% positive; defense and security breakeven, similar to the previous quarter. Commercial aviation was response for the negative operating results due to the low deliveries and the cost impacts. So Slide 16 shows our adjusted EBITDA, which was a loss of $80 million and also excluded the special items already mentioned in the previous slide.

Adjusted EBIT margin was minus 1%. The combination of better volumes and cost cut initiatives have already started to appear in the third quarter. And we expect this trend to accelerate in the fourth quarter of the year. Moving to next on Slide 17, with earnings.

Embraer adjusted net income reached a loss of $148 million in the third quarter. Our earnings have been negatively impacted by the lower operating results as well as higher financial expenses and noncash FX losses, similar to the operating numbers. Net income also reached a bottom in the second quarter and has started to rebound, and we expect better bottom-line performance in the fourth quarter of this year, driven by higher deliveries. Next slide, Slide 18.

We show Embraer's total investment over the last few quarters. The company has launched several initiatives to cut investment, including CAPEX as well as research and development. This reflects our actions to preserve cash. It also highlights in rare updated portfolio with state-of-art products in commercial aviation, executive jets, defense, and security.

Embraer has invested a lot in the last five years, bringing new programs and products to the market. And now we expect that upcoming years to show lower investments. Total investment during the third quarter reached $45 million and $134 million year to date, which is less than half of our investment level of 2019. Moving to Slide 19.

Our free cash flow was usage of $567 million in the third quarter. This free cash flow usage was negatively impacted by approximately $250 million, including three major items: first, one-off charge of around $70 million related to the restructuring and severance cost package of our Red headcount reduction in the beginning of September; second, around $100 million in short-term customer finance that will be normalized now in the fourth quarter; and third, another $80 million related to three plants that skipped from the end of the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Excluding that, our cash consumption in the third quarter of this year will be very close to the third quarter of 2019. Giving expectations for higher deliveries in the fourth quarter, we had a positive impact on our working capital as well as our cost reduction initiatives.

We are confident that our free cash flow will be much better in the first quarter of the year, and we should be at least a cash breakeven in the second half of 2020. Finally, on Slide 20, we highlight our strong cash position. Our liquidity increased during the third quarter with a total cash position of $2.2 billion, which is a similar cash level that would have prior to the COVID pandemic. I'm also happy to announce that we completed a series of liability management initiatives.

New loans with private and public banks as well new bond issuance of $750 million, maturing in 2028, and as the repurchase of $250 million of outstanding in 2022 and '23 bonds. It's important to highlight that our new 2020 rate bonds is unsecured and had a market demand above $3 billion, showing the confidence of a divestor in the long term of Embraer. With that, I conclude my presentation and we can open for questions. Thank you very much.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator instructions] Our first question comes from Robert Spingarn, Credit Suisse.

Robert Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Rob.

Robert Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Hi. Just a couple of different things. First, what gives you confidence in the outlook at commercial and executive jets for you to reverse these impairments at this time, what improving trends are you seeing, and does that include increased interest in ordering aircraft?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Rob, it's Antonio speaking. Good question. On the reversal of impairments, assuming that we revise it on a quarterly basis. It was highly driven by the exchange rate.

The devaluation of the Brazilian real, we do have a lot of cost in reals, which means we didn't change volumes. We just changed the exchange rate of the margins, which accounts for the impairment reversal, adjusted, so we didn't change the baseline.

Robert Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

I see. Are you seeing any evidence of something you've talked about in the past and that we saw after 9/11. Are you seeing actual down gauging at your customers from the commercial narrow-bodies to the E-Jets, and is this a trend that is gaining some traction?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, Francisco speaking. Thanks for the question. We believe the domestic regional month will rebound the first as it happened in the past, as I mentioned. And the airlines, we look for a more versatile, flexible and more economical suite and we do believe that our E-Jets are very well positioned in that direction.

So that's why we believe we have a good chance as soon as the market pickup.

Robert Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

OK. And then my last question is about your inventories, either in commercial, actually in any of the segments, but do you have white tails in inventory? And if so, can you quantify?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

With regards to today, current situation, we have leased a few. We are sold out in the small jet in the Executive Aviation. And the mid-sized jet, we still have three or four to be sold this quarter against the minimum, and also for the commercial aviation, we have no whitetails for this timing. We do have only the carryover inventory that we are due to the postponement of deliveries to 2021.

But that is not a big amount. What you do see in our inventory, we are going to run more or less 40% of our revenue in the fourth quarter. We think we are going to strongly go down with our event in Q4 due to the higher deliveries in Q4. But, again, no big whitetails on the inventory.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Comment, Antonio to complement its due here. So as you said, we basically have no positions available. That's the reason we are so confident in the fourth quarter and on the recovery toward year end.

Robert Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

OK. Thank you all. Thank you.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Myles Walton, UBS.

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. Maybe, Antonio, on the cash performance here in the third quarter, you laid out some of the onetime items. I think the commentary last quarter was you could have been closer to breakeven even for free cash flow here in the third quarter.

So I'm just curious, what changed? What is pushed out to the right? And I guess following on Rob's question, why couldn't those continue to push out to the right, realizing you haven't had any cancellations, but it seems like deferrals are more likely than not.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Myles, thanks for the question, again. The previous call, we mentioned that we are seeing, and we see a good chance to become, I would say, free cash flow breakeven the second semester second half of the year. And we are still continuing to believe.

As you could see, we have a cash burn in Q3 from $567 million. And we have a scheme of some aircraft deliveries to Q4. We have also several payments that had an impact in Q3, will be much less in Q4, and we have a huge amount of deliveries in Q4. We are still confident, and we are seeing progressive improvement in our free cash flow and also cash collection plays a role and also the other measures that we are taking.

Let's say, we are still confident that we will be closer to breakeven in the second semester. But again, if you ask about my expectation, in the third quarter, we could have been better, $250 million. But, again, having these onetime effects shifting this effect for Q4.

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

OK.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And just one point, Myles, sorry, to do here. We had some plans that really skip it to the fourth quarter. But as Antonio highlighted in the call, we already delivered more planes in October than the whole third quarter. So I think that shows that we are very confident to revert that now in the fourth quarter, and I would say all the levers for the fourth quarter are confirmed.

So we are not seeing risks or delays as we had. We had some plans that moved from third to -- from Q3 to Q4, but now they are all confirmed.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

OK. So maybe an additional information, Myles, Super Tucanos deliveries September and we delivered, but we are going to book as revenue and cash now in Q4, which will also help it with equation around the $80 million. That is not prior for Q3 results. Again, many issues were -- happened in Q3, but you should see the rebound in Q4.

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

OK. And Francisco, maybe I can ask you, as you're repositioning the business and you want to get, obviously, the commercial business, in particular, to profit or cash breakeven at worst. What is the size -- what's the deliveries or the size of the commercial business that you're sizing the cost structure to and the workforce to?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Good question, Myles. We are we have been discussing this a lot in our plans for the following years. I mean, we still see 2021 as a very challenging year. I mean, I would say not much higher than we see in this year.

But we are working in various fronts to adjust the cost structure of the company to deliver a much better performance in 2021, we would say is not much higher than 2020. And the main reason for that is commercial aviation. You see that 2021 will be still a challenging year for commercial aviation. We are preparing for that -- that scenario, but we seek an opportunity to grow, I mean, from 2022 onwards.

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

Do you think 2021 could be breakeven for commercial aviation?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

No. Commercial aviation will still suffer in 2021, but we can -- the older units will have a much better performance next year.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

As we have seen this fiscal year. By the way, we are seeing this year. Now because of Myles, we are likely to have a broader portfolio, and we are seeing a good performance in investor markets for executives and defense and equipment sales, which is more or less tried to compensate for the drop in commercial aviation in reversal margins and results. But you're going to see the same picture in 2021.

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

Thanks again.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Welcome.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Good morning, everyone. This is Mariana Perez Mora on for Ron today.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Hi.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi.

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

My first question will be, could you please give us some color on the short-term capital finance cash headwind you have this quarter? And not only the color on the quarter but also how -- why are you confident that this is going to recover going into next year -- into next quarter?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. That was really a short-term timing delay. So we don't do customer finance, and we have a very short-term finance that we are transferring to the final finance agent, and so there is no risk of not reverting that. So we don't do customer time.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And it's already confirmed for the ETA in Brazil, your takeoff, and everything like that.

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK. And then in general, because I understand for competitive reasons, you cannot see particular details, but has cash profitability compared to like pre-pandemic cash profitability upon delivery?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Are you talking about commercial or the whole business?

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Commercial, particularly.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

We are improving. Right? We suffer with lower deliveries, especially in the first half. Third quarter already started to show improvement, but the big improvement will come now in the fourth quarter. As we mentioned, in October, already better than the whole third quarter.

And we're going to have much more delivers and that will drive a big improvement in cash profitability coming from working capital reduction and also the cost adjustments that we did that Francisco and Antonio highlighted.

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

And if I may, the last one, you highlighted the improvement in business operations, have you seen some like the pickup in demand already?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, you mean demand for 2021 or for the following years?

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Yes. How are your sales campaigns coming in? If you have seen any pickup for business jet demand? What's booked to deal with there?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

OK. Well, I mean, executive aviation is showing a good reaction. We are, for example, in our Phenom family, we are sold out for 2020. We are selling aircraft for 2021, the Phenom.

So it's moving well The difference in security, we are working in different campaigns as well. And also in commercial aviation, we are working on different campaigns. So hope, this second wave of COVID will not being a negative impact. On the opposite, if we announce a new vaccine, this will help a lot and the rebound of the regional and domestic flights that will help us to boost our sales in commercial aviation as well.

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

OK. Thank you very much.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome.Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Cai von Rumohr, Cowen.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Thank you very much. So maybe you could comment on the mix of your biz jets. You've done very well, very well with the 300 and the 100. Basically very, very poorly in terms of deliveries of the Legacies and the Praetors.

Why you have that sort of extreme mix and should we expect a big pickup in those larger planes in the fourth quarter and going into next year?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Cai, thanks for the question. I mean, let's see if I understand your question, but the Phenom 300 is our debt seller. I mean, the most sold aircraft in its category for the past 80 years, I would say. I mean, we are improving our sales for the Praetors, the 600 now out of the 500.

And then we have specific programs, specific initiatives, in our strategic plan '21-'25 to improve the competitiveness of the Phenom 100 and the Praetor 500. And with those plans, we expect to capture additional market share in the four years for all the families because we do believe we have a great family with the two Phenoms, 100, 300, and the two Praetors, the 500 and 600.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Just to add, Francisco, now in the -- we have only two Praetors in the third quarter right and 19 Phenoms. So we expect a much better performance in terms of the Praetors now for the fourth quarter.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Correct. Thank you. We do.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Got it. That was essentially the question. And then going forward, because if we look at this year and last year, basically, the third quarter, very weak for -- generally weak for the larger biz jets. Do you expect a more level of even spread of the large biz jets because the Phenom is clearly doing well, but the large ones, where the product looks attractive, doesn't seem to be doing quite as well?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Can you hear us, Cai?

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Yes. Perfectly. I don't know what that was.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. There was some background noise. Just allow me to answer. Cai, it's a good question, for sure.

If you see the sharp tie, I showed the mid-sized guess, they are not doing well compared with the small jets. That's why we are sold out in Phenom 100 and 300, and we still have some open positions for the last quarter. But I'd say, we do have company for all of them. These are going to sell in another quarter.

But let's say, we have talked about five to six aircraft on the Praetors and on the others, we are sold out, and you saw the deliveries we have year-to-date 43, and we are seeing for the whole year is the mid-80s for the total 2020 is actually delivered, which shows that last quarter would be hot anyway for us, but for sure, at the mid-side jets we are suffering more and also the large jets compared with these small jets.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Great. And the last question is, your gross margins have come down. What should we think about where your gross margins? What is the incremental gross margin we should think, obviously, you have different businesses? But overall, if commercial and biz jet get better, what kind of incremental margins should they yield?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

It's my point of view a normalized basis because we do not have the better mix for the fiscal year, and you see above 50% in the long run, 50% to 60% in the first year.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

And also, we have a lot of initiatives to help us to reduce the cost of goods sold of the aircraft as well to reduce the production cycles of the aircraft, and this will also help us, besides the mix that point also help us to increase the gross margin of our products.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

And one important point, we were impacted by the items this year in our gross margin, with the adjustments we are doing in our workforce is not going to happen next year even in Q4. September was already -- if you asked me today, September was already positive in the earnings and cash flow. Just in the month of September because the idleness is being reduced and should come to an end in Q4, which is an impact on our gross margin this fiscal year.

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Very helpful. Thanks so much.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome, Cai.

Operator

Our next question comes from Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Hello, Noah.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Noah.

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

In commercial aviation, you've mentioned that you haven't really had any cancellations. But there's clearly been a decent amount of deferral activity with the lower deliveries. Can you speak to where are your customers deferring to? It sounds like if you're saying 2021 deliveries will be somewhere in the zone of similar to 2020, are they deferring to 2022, or are they deferring even further? And are they giving you new plans that you feel are relatively firm, or are they just still kind of throwing their hands up in the air and are still very uncertain as to when they're going to want the airplanes?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

No. The -- thanks for the question, Noah. The majority of the deferral was between 2020 -- from 2022 onwards, especially the local airline in Brazil, Azul, is impacted as higher here. And we do see, as Francisco mentioned, 2020 more or less in the same level of this year and picking up starting 2022 to, I would say, the mid-70s.

And again, there are the highest amounts of deferred start in 2022, '23, and '24. And again, there is no additional postponements or deferrals. We may see maybe that if the environment change, the second wave of COVID, it is not going to impact we may see even customers have to anticipate something. But today, flight stable everything we discuss between March and April remains different.

Also the deliveries of this year, everything we discussed which was agreed between March and April. And since then, there is no change, very stable.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

If I may just add Antonio here, Noah. It's in part, say that the situation is very fluid, right, given everything going on with COVID. But the first moment, maybe some customers, they put a big deferral but as the situation starts to get better, they start to operate again. We are the whole time talking to the customers and discussing when exactly they are going to take a pencil.

As Antonio mentioned, there could be anticipations, right, to the initial deferral that they put, so the situation could really change depending on how COVID goes, especially next year.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Once again, just to allow me to complete, we have set the company for this new normal, I would say, in a lower basis in order that we are able to capture more when we get an improvement and a recovery in volumes. We are not running the company with hope. It's really feet on the ground and be conservative in the balance for next year.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. And, Noah, I mean, just also helping my colleagues here, I mean, this year, we have to face a combination of two bad things. Right? We had a drop in our revenues because of the COVID impact but combined with costs much higher than normal because of the carve-out of commercial aviation. But we have done our homework.

We have adjusted the workforce, and we have put in place a lot of initiatives to reduce costs, to reduce inventories that will help us to deliver a much better financial performance in 2021, even if we say it's not much higher than 2020.

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

OK. Great. I appreciate all that detail on Commercial. Maybe kind of the same cushion on the executive.

I mean, obviously, it's fluid, it can change. But for now, would you speak to where you're planning production levels for total executive units 2021, 2022?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

So for 2021, 2022, we are still evaluating the scenario, we even changed our SNLP process last month and we do see something around 90 aircraft. But again, still for it, but we see more or less a good level of 90 aircraft.

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

OK. And then just last one on defense. The quarterly revenues have been very volatile. I know you had the delivery restrictions, but it seems like it's been volatile even excluding that.

When does the defense business, I guess, just get back on to a more smooth trajectory quarter over quarter? And maybe just kind of walk us back through some of the bigger programmatic moving pieces that can drive growth or not in that segment on a multiyear basis?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

No. I mean -- go ahead, Antonio. Go ahead.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

It's the -- for sure, there are always defenses in the budget of each government that's buying aircraft's for -- and COVID does have some restructuring. But I would say what we are seeing in defense, we are somewhere stable on the Super Tucano deliveries and also -- and the KC-390 volumes that we are operating for this year and also for next year. But we are still missing additional sales for the C-390 Millennium that we are right now discussing some additional campaigns. But if you ask me what could boost the situation is really an additional sales campaign for the Q2 in '19?

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Should we be thinking about defense revenues three to five years out as meaningfully higher or something relatively similar to the current level?

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely higher. We have a good perspective on defense for the following years. We are working on campaigns for C-390 Millennium as Antonio mentioned. We also have business with the Brazilian Navy, Brazil Army.

We have announced an acquisition of a cybersecurity company business. We see opportunities in that field as well so we have a good perspective for the different -- for the following five years.

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

OK. Thanks so much.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome, Noah.

Operator

Our next question comes from Augusto Ensiki, HSBC.

Augusto Ensiki -- HSBC -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Just a quick question. And most in your financials that your -- your financial -- sorry, your financial expense increased sharply.

Is that related to the paydown of the -- some of the -- some of your debt as well as the issuance of the new debt? And what would be a more normal level, if not the one this quarter? Thank you.

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Thanks, Augusto. Yes. You're right, there are some additional costs related to the new debt that we raised in the third quarter.

We also had some impacts from basically noncash FX losses, which is noncash and we also had an RVG provision. So that affected our financial expenses. I would say the normal level will be more something around $50 million per quarter. That would be our net financial expenses per quarter.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Including revenue [indiscernible]

Augusto Ensiki -- HSBC -- Analyst

Thank you so much.

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Ok.

Augusto Ensiki -- HSBC -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Paul [Inaudible], Loomis Sayles. Please proceed.

Unknown speaker

Hi. Thanks for taking the call -- taking the question. This loan maturity in the fourth quarter, I'm curious how you are planning on handling that?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Sorry. What was the question?

Unknown speaker

It's -- the loan maturity in the fourth quarter, just curious how to handle that?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. As I mentioned, basically, we had very short-term customer finance that was already solved and transferred to the finance agent. So there is no -- nothing material. OK? It had an impact when you look at the picture of the end of the quarter, but it was already sold.

Unknown speaker

So there's no $600 million maturities in the fourth quarter?

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

No. No. No. No.

The -- we have in the fourth quarter is around $100, $150 million.

Unknown speaker

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 54 minutes

Call participants:

Francisco Gomes Neto -- President and Chief Executive Officer

Antonio Garcia -- Chief Financial Officer

Robert Spingarn -- Credit Suisse -- Analyst

Myles Walton -- UBS -- Analyst

Mariana Perez Mora -- Bank of America Merrill Lynch -- Analyst

Cai von Rumohr -- Cowen and Company -- Analyst

Noah Poponak -- Goldman Sachs -- Analyst

Augusto Ensiki -- HSBC -- Analyst

Unknown speaker

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