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Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC (NYSE:FTAI)
Q1 2021 Earnings Call
Apr 30, 2021, 8:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by and welcome to the Q1 2021 Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure Investors LLC Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instruction] I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Alan Andreini. Please go ahead, sir.

Alan Andreini -- Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Patricia. I would like to welcome you to the Fortress Transportation and Infrastructure First Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. Joining me here today are Joe Adams, our Chief Executive Officer; Scott Christopher, our Chief Financial Officer; and Bo Woolley [Phonetic], the CEO of our Long Ridge Energy Terminal. We have posted an investor presentation in our press release on our website, which we encourage you to download, if you have not already done so. Also, please note that this call is open to the public in listen-only mode and is being webcast. In addition, we will be discussing some non-GAAP financial measures during the call today. The reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures can be found in the earning supplement. Before I turn the call over to Joe, I would like to point out that certain statements made today will be forward-looking statements including regarding future earnings. These statements by their nature are uncertain and may differ materially from actual results. We encourage you to review the disclaimers in our press release and investor presentation regarding non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking statements and to review the risk factors contained in our quarterly report filed with the SEC. Now I would like to turn the call over to Joe.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Alan. To start, I'm pleased to announce our 24th dividend as a public company, and our 39th consecutive dividend since inception. The dividend of $0.33 per share will be paid on May 25 based on a shareholder record date of May 14. Now let's turn to the numbers. The key metrics for us are adjusted EBITDA and FAD or funds available for distribution. Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2021 was $47.2 million compared to Q4 2020 of $46.2 million and Q1 2020 of $72 million. FAD was $14.4 million in Q1 2021 versus $54.2 million in Q4 2020 and $96 million in Q1 2020. On a normalized basis excluding sales proceeds and non-recurring items, Q1 2021 FAD was $9.8 million compared to $35.7 million in Q4 2020 and $67.4 million in Q1 2020. During the first quarter, the $14.1 million FAD number was comprised of $60.6 million from our aviation leasing portfolio, negative $3.8 million from our infrastructure businesses and negative $42.4 million from corporate and other.

Now, turning first to aviation, Q1 EBITDA for aviation of $61 million was a slight improvement from Q4 as we expected, but also as we expected, we are seeing a meaningful uptick in activity in April and expect Q2 Aviation EBITDA to exceed $80 million. As an example, we have signed 20 new leases for CFM56 engines of which eight have already been delivered in the last few weeks. 75% of our fleet is 737 NG and A320 CO aircraft and engines, which are flown mostly in domestic shorter haul markets, which are poised for strong rebound by Q3 of this year with many airlines planning flight schedules that are equal to or greater than Q3 of 2019, and and 20% of our fleet is operating in the cargo markets, which continued to experience record high demand. Thus, our fleet is extremely well positioned for the recovery.

Our PMA initiative is progressing well with the second part expected to be formally submitted to the FAA in July or August having had some minor tweaks to the final parts, which are now complete. But the big development for us this quarter is the opening of our module store. We believe commercializing modules will disrupt traditional CFM56 engine maintenance by enabling airlines, operators, owners and MROs to save money, reduce turnaround time, eliminate cost surprises, and in many cases, keep the engine on wing during the maintenance. We are well positioned to be the leader in modules with our comprehensive suite of services including PMA parts developed with Chromalloy, our USM or used service raw material and supply coming out of our ARR partnership and the Lockheed Martin maintenance venture combined with our large inventory of 250 CFM56 engines.

On Monday of this week, we formally launched the module store to the trade and invite everyone to take a tour. You can find the website and a QR code link on page 6 of our investor presentation, which will be posted today. We've received a strong positive reaction from all industry participants and are convinced that this approach can change how major engine maintenance was conducted for a meaningful segment of the market due to the substantial savings generated by maintaining our inventory of readily available modules and the potential financial impact to FTAI is significant. For the CFM56 engine fleet today, there are roughly 2,500 aftermarket overhaul shop visits per annum. And that's projected to grow to over 3,000 by 2024. Approximately 20% or say 100 of those shop visits only require work on one module, which makes it a perfect candidate for our module factory. If FTAI could capture 20% of that market or 100 module swaps per annum, we would expect to generate $50 million in annual EBITDA for FTAI while saving an equal amount or more for the engine owner and operator, and as a more complete PMA product line becomes available, this number will only get bigger.

Now let's turn to infrastructure. First on Repauno after loading our first marine vessel in January through our state-of-the-art NGL or natural gas liquids rail transloading system, we have completed some facility operational enhancements, which will increase flow rates from our existing cavern by over 40% and ultimately enable us to quickly change service between butane and propane to best to meet market demand. In addition, we've now completed the loading of our second marine vessel and we have 30 additional vessels scheduled over the coming months. We have successfully negotiated firm contracts for NGL volumes at Repauno beginning in the second quarter, this quarter and committing up to 90% of the current capacity through the third quarter of 2021.

We plan to have volume moving to international local and regional markets from Repauno this year, demonstrating the optimization capabilities associated with the strategic location of our facility. We continue to discuss long-term strategic contracts with both producers and off-takers, which will yield commercial justification for expansion of our facility through the construction of additional underground caverns. We see also increased interest in more discussions and renewable opportunities including renewable fuels, manufacturing and most notably potential customers for offloading staging and manufacturing wind farm components.

At the moment, we have multiple conversations going with the leading wind farm developers off the East Coast of the United States in particular New Jersey and New York, but as mentioned previously, Repauno is well positioned for these opportunities with heavy load roll-on/roll-off dock capabilities and 200 available acres for development. Turning now to Long Ridge, the Long Ridge power plant is nearing completion. First, fire of the gas turbine is scheduled for May and we will be fully operational by mid-summer, which is a significantly ahead of schedule relative to our planned November 2021 completion date, which was guaranteed by our EPC contractor, and importantly starting next month, Long Ridge will be generating cash flow from test operations.

By controlling our own natural gas and having the world's most efficient plant, Long Ridge has one of the lowest power production costs in North America. This provides many ways for us to create additional values and a good example of this is crypto mining. We've seen a lot of interest from global crypto mining companies, as they search for sites that have the lowest cost around 24/7 tower and scale. Several have identified Long Ridge as the best possible location to for their operations. As such, we evaluated two different alternatives to approach this and increase EBITDA for the power plant. The first way would be to lease land and sell tower to these miners at approximately $35 to $45 -- $40 a megawatt hour, which is a premium to our existing contracts of approximately $30 a megawatt hour. The second approach would be to enter the mining business and our current Bitcoin prices mining Long Ridge would be the equivalent of selling tower for over $150 a megawatt hour after capital cost recovery and expenses, which is 5 times higher than our existing power sales agreements. This strategy to make a lot of sense in particular, since our power plant is capable of generating more than the 485 megawatts that it is currently rated for.

In the economics of using this extra capacity are extremely attractive. If we were to utilize just 20 megawatts for crypto mining, Long Ridge EBITDA could increase from $120 million per annum to nearly $165 million per annum at current Bitcoin prices. So as such we are arranging for the first machines to be delivered this Monday through our property and are negotiating for a larger order representing approximately 2 megawatts of power for an August 2021 start-up. We also continue to be excited about our hydrogen power plants at Long Ridge. We are progressing on the design and engineering of the blending skid in partnership with GE and remain on track to start blending hydrogen by the end of this year. This will make Long Ridge the first purpose-built hydrogen burning power plant in the United States and the first worldwide to blend hydrogen in a GE H Class gas turbine.

We are in discussions with numerous customers who have expressed interest in the carbon-free electricity that we will be able to provide. Finally, the quarter was good for our frac sand business despite continued industrywide slowdown in natural gas drilling, we translated 210,000 tons of frac sand and 33,000 tons of road sold. Turning now to Jefferson, activity at the Jefferson terminal remains robust. Near-term product movements combined with long-term project development continues to increase Jefferson's competitive positioning in the Houston and Beaumont Port Arthur terminal landscape. While total terminal throughput and economics continued to face headwinds in the short term, Jefferson posted its fifth consecutive positive quarter with EBITDA of $2.8 million, down from $4.2 million in Q4. The lower quarter-on-quarter EBITDA can be attributed to challenged crude-by-rail economics across North America and lost throughput and refinery demand due to the ice storm and deep freeze in Texas in February. As we look toward Q2 in the second half of 2021, we're very optimistic about increased refinery demand and production -- increased oil production, which drive terminal throughput higher in the next few months.

Combined with improved customer demand and a more stable economic picture globally and certainly domestically, Jefferson has completed pipeline projects that strategically aligned Jefferson with long-term top quartile end users. Jefferson is becoming an essential logistical extension of two of the largest refineries in North America and the long-term strategy and vision continues to make excellent progress and providing increased logistics optionality for our customers and consistent in profitable business revenues for Jefferson. As we described last quarter in the pipeline project connecting the Jefferson Terminal with Exxon Beaumont refinery has been completed and there has been in service since January. The gasoline and diesel pipelines account for two of the six pipelines that go under the river connecting Jefferson with Exxon, and we're already realizing approximately 20% higher throughput volumes compared to the pre-pipeline volumes.

We expect refined product volumes to continue to steadily increase as a result of a more economic and ratable logistical solution. Additionally, project development work is well under way to put the additional four pipelines into service for other products in the near future. Line fill safety and start-up procedures began in Q1 for the two other pipeline projects. The pipeline to Motiva, which is owned by Saudi Aramco, is now operational and the pay line pipeline connecting Jefferson to Cushing, Oklahoma, we are projecting will be operational in May. This crude optionality from both the inbound and outbound perspectives will expand the reach as accessible crude oils available to Jefferson and our customers create enhanced blending options and then start to balancing out crude flows in and out of the terminal via pipe, rail and marine.

As to the balance of this year, we remain in close contact with our customers in the US Gulf Coast, Canada, Mexico and Utah and are getting closer and finalizing several large-scale projects with our major customers. So in conclusion, as we look back over the last few months, we were to mark the end of the pandemic and the beginning of the recovery on the calendar, the end of Q1 feels like a pretty good guess. Even still in Q1 in infrastructure, we completed the three pipeline projects at Jefferson, the natural gas loading export terminal at Repauno and are well on the way to commissioning the power plant at Long Ridge. And in Aviation, we continue to improve the positioning of our fleet for the recovery and have added an excellent group of new airline customers to our network, and very importantly, we have combined our CFM56 products into an ecosystem that can reach and appeal to the entire CFM56 user base through our brand new module factory. So while feeling a great sense of relief that the travel and Infrastructure worlds are growing again, I'm extremely excited about what other new things we can do to make 2021 and 2022 truly exceptional for our employees, our customers and our investors.

So with that, I will turn the call back to Alan.

Alan Andreini -- Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Joe. Operator, you may now open the call to Q&A.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Josh Sullivan from Benchmark Company. Your line is open.

Josh Sullivan -- Benchmark Company -- Analys

Hey, good morning, Joe. And Scott. Nice quarter here.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Josh Sullivan -- Benchmark Company -- Analys

Sounds like you guys, you guys have a lot of irons in the fire here, but maybe if we could start with the Lockheed joint venture on the new module store, you mentioned strong initial demand in the remarks, can you just elaborate or maybe quantify what that initial response looks like, many common thread among early adopters as far as customer profile or assets their registering here?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We have a lot of innovation. We timed the launch on Monday to sort of which the big Orlando maintenance and repair conference started on Tuesday. So that was intentional. And so, as part of the marketing -- initial marketing effort, we were with all of -- with a lot of the right people to be in front of and a very good response from the in the target group and the target group is primarily going to be three different categories, since it will be aviation maintenance procurement folks who buy and manage the parts supply and the engine things that are bought from outside for their maintenance businesses and modules simplifies their life in a lot of way. So a very positive response from some very big airlines so big airlines in some cases have their own maintenance shop, so it illustrates the degree if they're looking at cost savings as well as capital efficiency. So that was positive and also small airlines who don't have the resources. So that group is very, very intrigued and interested and is following up.

The second is a lot of maintenance shops. So if you have a big maintenance operation injecting having the ability to buy and sell and exchange modules gives you a lot of flexibility. So the big independent MRO shops we were also very engaged with. And then thirdly is ultimately lessors because lessors are managing maintenance reserves and maintenance expenses and avoiding shop visits is just becoming a higher and higher priority. So there were line conference primarily of the first two, not a lot of lessors there, but it was really more of a maintenance-oriented conferences. And at that conference or during the first week, we've got about 50 people to sign up and it is mostly airlines and the maintenance people and signing up means you get access to look at our inventory.

And today in advance of this, we built up a module inventory so we have 43 modules listed on the website. You can click on a fan, a core, LPG and you can see what we have available and get detailed technical information and then you can also request a swap, so if you have an exchange that you want to do. So if you have an LPT for example that needs a shop visit, we are looking for replacing that with some one who doesn't, it has hours cycles available, you can specify what you'd like to exchange, you can specify the timing of when you want to do it and you can also screen and scan our inventory-to-suit the requirements that you need are met by any of our available inventory and we intend to keep probably about that level number of modules available, you want to have enough inventory so people can find that they want. It's a bit like having store you want to have probably 50 or so modules on the shelf.

So all in all, it's off to a great start. Obviously to consummated sale, you can't -- you're not going to do that over the website, you're going to want to follow up with people and make sure that they are real and what they -- and what we have reached their needs. But, it is a great tool and a great efficiency to get people using it and thinking about how they can reduce the downtime and ultimately, we're going to move more as well and I figure there is a lot of enthusiasm about being able to do some maintenance many engines on wing. So we have partnerships you're talking about with other maintenance shops that can allow us to provide that service. And if you can avoid taking engine off the wing, that's a huge, huge cost savings. So I think it was a great launch and we are very excited and customer base seems very enthusiast [Phonetic] and it's truly a unique offering there is nobody that has done -- nobody has anything like this including the OEMs. So the OEM is never going to have PMA so. So we feel like we've got another sort of barriers to entry or another leg up on on the market.

Josh Sullivan -- Benchmark Company -- Analys

Got it. That's all very helpful. And then maybe just as a second question. The demand you're seeing on the Aviation side, the step-up you're pointing to here in 2Q implies some strong sequential activity. What are you seeing that gives you that confidence? And then maybe what is your domestic versus international travel profile breakdown?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

So we -- when we talk about domestic, are you talking about US or are you taking about domestic markets around the world?

Josh Sullivan -- Benchmark Company -- Analys

Domestic markets around the world.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

So we're about, as I mentioned that 70% -- 75% of our fleet is A320 COs and 737 NGs, which are really domestic airplanes. So 75% and we've been consciously targeting that market and we're going to -- that's likely to keep growing. The rest of our fleet is in the cargo market. So it's really between -- those are our primary focus. And those are to invest markets in Aviation right now. So we're heavily concentrated on domestic, which we like and what we're seeing is, is what we thought, is there is still a fair amount of inventory and green time available out there that airlines can continue to use before they do shop visit. So shop visits are being deferred but airlines are looking ahead and so look, I'm going to fly my fleet all out in Q3 of this year and maybe in Q4 and Q1 next year because there's a lot of pent-up demand. They're going to run out of capacity fairly soon in terms of engines available and airlines are notoriously not good at planning. So they're starting to -- So as I mentioned, we've put out a number of engines on lease, and I think some of those, some of those are two carriers that were coming out of restructuring and coming out of bankruptcy and in some cases who need lift and don't have a lot of options.

And then the next group is going to be airlines that realize that pretty soon they're going to run out of engines and what they're doing now is lining up. We're negotiating lease agreements and renegotiating they're going through inventory they want availability, and they would like engines on their facility available, so they're starting to get ready for the one they're going to need to these engines, and there are some RFPs coming out with some airlines looking to specify they want 10 or 15 engines in the bigger airlines available. So they're seeing it and we're starting to plan. And so that's kind of a second wave.

And then the third wave is really when you use up all the green time and that I think will be Q4, Q1 of, call it, Q1 of 2022 where people have to start doing shop visits again in good number and that is -- there is a fair amount of lead time, because if you want to get into shop, you have to order parts. You have to get a slot and so that takes advanced lane and that's I think where our module factory really fits an extremely well because if you only need to shop -- if an engine only needs to work on the LPG, you don't want to put the entire engine in the shop and wait for the LPG to be fixed so doing a swap is really very, very efficient and as I say, it's disruptive to the way it's done now because people don't do it that way, they think, if everything is that's my engines, don't give me a different modules that it's change. Airlines themselves do it and I think the rest of the industry is going to get there very quickly.

Josh Sullivan -- Benchmark Company -- Analys

Got it. I'll get back in the queue. I appreciate the time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Guiliano Bologna from Compass Point. Your line is open.

Guiliano Bologna -- Compass Point -- Analyst

A quick question, kind of going back to what you're mentioning last quarter on the Aviation segment you'd said roughly there are three different components from contribution from existing engines, there was contribution from new investments and then from the kind of parts and maintenance JV initiatives that we got to go, call it, $450 million of Aviation EBITDA for '21 and there is roughly, call it, $50 miiion or $60 million for infrastructure in '21, was that you're kind of going for and leaving out the corporate segment? I'm curious how those pieces still come together and how you how you're thinking about that for '21 given some of the early results in the year.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Well, we didn't really expect much out of Q1 as I mentioned in the last call and and that is proved to be true, because restrictions were heavily in place in Q1 as you know, but they are now opening up and everybody's planning from more flying. So we're still of the view that the $450 million for 2021 is achievable and the components were roughly, I think it was $320 million from the existing portfolio, $80 million from new investments and $50 million from the three JVs, the partners -- partnerships, with Chromalloy, Lockheed Martin and AAR and so it's obviously going to be heavily back-end loaded so big, big jump in Q3 and Q4, which makes sense given what I was just talking about. So we believe that is, that's still our view is, for the year.

And then on infrastructure also that I think the $50 million is very achievable. We've got, as I mentioned, good initiatives now to Repauno with lots of activity around natural gas liquids and we're sold out for the summer and I think that's just going to build, the momentum is going to build there and we'll come up with new ways to make money on and on the track that we're now doing business across the different counterparties. Long Ridge starts firing first fire this month and/or May and turns on August so that will start contributing in Jefferson very, very helpful. The volume is picking up as well as landing one or more big contracts here in the next couple of months.

Guiliano Bologna -- Compass Point -- Analyst

That's great. And then I'm giving you a little bit kind of to the comments you're making about potentially starting to have a Bitcoin mining venture initiatives at Long Ridge and one of the most important component of Bitcoin mining is usually power cost. And I guess a couple of questions. What your cost per megawatt hour is at the power plant? And then from there, there are kind of two follow-ons. One was that you'd have two existing contracts for supply agreements. And I think those -- you have the ability to cancel those because you've been talking about some of the data centers that may have involved canceling those. I'm curious if it's possible to cancel or partially canceling those if that were -- the venture were to be successful. We have a server those. I'm curious if you selected any specific type of Bitcoin mining equipment because there are a few different providers out there. I've got of you use made stage where you have a specific mining equipment in mind.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, I'll take the first and I'll let Bo talk about the equipment, but in terms of the cost of power, I mean, we've looked at a lot of these companies. They're starting up and converting coal-fired power plants and other older assets that are being repositioned and we think we have by far the lowest cost and it's in several different categories. But the -- And we're already vertically integrated. So years ago we decided to go and develop our own gas so we're actually vertically integrated back to gas in the ground and no one has that capability, which means we think our cost of power on the first 20 megawatts is about $12 a megawatt hour. So that is far lower than you may have seen and I think far lower in reality in most people, because a lot of people avoid -- are ignoring cost that they just are convenient to ignore. So I think we've got $12.

And one of the reasons why the first 20 megawatts is interesting to us and sort of got us thinking is that our power plant is going to be rated 485 megawatts by the manufacturers. So initially, that's the most amount of power you can sell under the capacity auction. So you can get paid for capacity without ever using it and it's only the rated amount we can get paid for until there is a couple of years of operating data, you can't really upsize is not 45. But we can actually produce 505 megawatts. So the first 20 megawatts is the cheapest electricity knows. It's just marginally only, the only thing we pay for is the cost of fuel. So that's what does thinking and gives us sort of the lowest cost of power but beyond that, we have another, was it 40 megawatts that we never contracted.

Unidentified Speaker

Yeah. We have about 457 contracted today.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So 457 is under these long-term contracts, which is like 94% production. And so we have another 40 megawatts or 30 megawatts that we could use without terminating any of our existing contracts that the plan was just to sell that into the emerging market. And then thirdly, if we wanted to go beyond that we have the right under our long-term off-take agreements to terminate those contracts under make-whole provisions. So think of it like an interest rate swap that if the market moves, you just have to be able to replace the counterparty as well in the market and replace what they have left with someone else and right now because the way the power markets have moved, they actually would pay -- if we elected to terminate those contracts under the make-whole provisions, the counterparty would owe us money.

So quite an interesting dynamic and it's a one-way option. We have the right to terminate but the counterparty does not have right to terminate so -- and restructure that way deliberately so we could and then find other off-takers and then we replace those with higher behind the meter users. So really lots of, I mean we have tremendous amount of flexibility to grow at very, very attractive price. We have the most efficient turbine in the world, the highest heat rate is the 7HA.02, which is what we're using. So I don't think anybody in the world has got that sort of firepower against what we can. And obviously, the market has become more competitive. And people are putting more resources toward it, it's going to be the most cost providers is going to win. So that's where I think we have -- and we're more vertically integrated than anybody in the business that we know of. Bo, do you want to talk about the machines?

Unidentified Speaker

Yes. So the machines that will start running Monday are S19pros and then for the next batch that we're looking at, most likely the S19Jpro, which is the newest model and one of the most efficient in terms of energy usage.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

And there are 100 terahash per second or 110 terahash per second for the non-J [Phonetic].

Unidentified Speaker

Right.

Guiliano Bologna -- Compass Point -- Analyst

That's great. That's very helpful. I just have one very quick one and I'll jump right back in the queue after that. Really appreciate all the help us. I'd be curious kind of what the power cost is kind of you have identified the roughly $12 per megawatt hour for the access component. I'd be curious as you go further down the structure side, what the average is if you was at the core production capacity and where that cost might take out.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Probably 16, 17. Yeah, yeah. I think order are now 16, 17 and now that would be represented for the entire remaining capacity.

Guiliano Bologna -- Compass Point -- Analyst

That's great. I really appreciate all the time and answering my questions.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Thanks.

Guiliano Bologna -- Compass Point -- Analyst

Congrats on all of these initiatives. Thank you.

Operator

We have the line of Chris Wetherbee from Citi. Your line is open.

Christian Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Joe, maybe if we could start in the aviation side. I mean you mentioned obviously the ramp up that you're expecting in the second quarter from what you did in the first quarter. If I look back over the last couple of years and obviously last year was a significant under-earning year but if I wanted to kind of get a better sense of what the portfolio looks like today and what the potential initiatives that you're working on look like in terms of a walk from where we were last year. Could you sort of help sort of build the pieces back up, so we can get maybe more of a clean run rate of what Aviation is capable of on an adjusted EBITDA basis once some of these new initiatives are in place?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Well, I think what we've done is we've moved more toward for the CFM56 engine, which I think now is about 50% of our total investment. So that's probably up from maybe 30% prior to this period and we have a couple of other deals there, we're still working on that we think will add to that and grow that. And then we've also increased our cargo business. So I think that where you've seen a decrease has been 767 passenger business we had and some 757 passenger. And so I'd say those two have gone down, and the CFM56 and cargo have gone up, and so that's strategically, I think, where we've been. We've decided really two years ago to start doing that and then accelerated it with the pandemic. And then on top of that what we expressed is that we want not only do we want to earn 25% EBITDA on invested Aviation Capital, we want to develop revenue and EBITDA from other services that are not tied to owning assets, think Chromalloy, Lockheed Martin and AAR, which we say we think we can earn $50 million this year, and that number on the upper bound is somewhat unlimited in that and I think we talked last time about how do you accelerate them, you get airlines to basically let us outsource the maintenance of their CFM56 fleet and I think that the module factory is one of those moments where we said that's how we do it. That's exactly -- that's the mechanism and it isn't that complicated and it allows airlines to sort of use that service on an adhoc basis as they want without going through some major RFP process that involves the OEM and 10 other people, so you can deal with solutions that saves the maintenance department a lot of money. And it's very accessible, easy to use, allows them to be flexible and how they use PMA, for example, that's not sort of in the face of anybody. So it's a solution to what we were looking for. SoI think that number is unbounded I really do.

Christian Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Okay, OK. That's helpful. And then I guess, maybe a question on Jefferson. So I'm kind of curious of your take here, so obviously some rail M&A news has been sort of building over the course of the last couple of weeks in particular last two weeks. And so, I was curious what your perspective is if you have one. There's two potential competing carriers for the KCS assets. You guys obviously get served by KCS at the facility and as that business continues to sort of develop as you've gotten access to incremental refinery production, do you have any take there? Is there any sort of view on where you'd like to see that transaction go? Or do you think there is any impact at all on Jefferson as a result of the transaction? Any thoughts you have there would be helpful. I'm curious sort of how this plays out for a critical rail shipper.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we have a point of view and we've been engaged with those Canadians are looking for support. So I think that is an interesting dynamic and never it -- it changes too. So as you think about the different options. But I think that it's going to work out better for us. I think we've gotten very good dialogue. I mean it's amazing how quickly and how they return your calls and things like that. So it is -- we are focused on sort of developing a long-term flow of products from the Canadian market by rail and that probably involves DRU. There's one that's being built that's about to be finished and then there is a couple more that are being planned and so we're having good dialog with both of them and ultimately think if they have a -- if there is a Canadian carrier that has a three-way all the way to Beaumont that that's good for us and good for the customers, and also it might enable us to make sure that that there is no way that we get cut out either so you get most favored nations no matter what happens. So I think we have ours our thoughts together. I think it's going to be good for us. I think the dialog around the plans are much accelerated and much more open maybe than they were before. And it's a multi-party dialog too because not only we are talking to the Canadian railroads but we're talking to the Exxons and Motiva, so we're impacting and also thinking about it. So it's -- it's fine. I think.

Christian Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Yeah, I can imagine that they're being fairly responsive, seems like an interesting opportunity for you guys potentially if you maybe benefit from all this, but --

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Exxon has a big move. We do a lot of drag 30,000, 35,000 barrels a day to Mexico for Exxon and that KCS is the carrier. So that's going to be impacted. So there's a lot of things going on. But I do think it's -- ultimately it's usually good for the shippers.

Christian Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Yeah. Okay. That's helpful. Thanks for the time. Appreciate it.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Thanks.

Operator

Next, we have the line of Rob Salmon from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, guys and thanks for taking the question. I guess kind of another tough. Okay. Item has been the presence kind of infrastructure plans. Could you discuss some thoughts about potential government grants to help reduce FTAI's capital outlays for both in terms of the magnitude and timing, just given how many project-ready investments you have across the entire portfolio?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So it's -- that's another area where a lot of focus and interest because, for instance, last week we are talking about Repauno in New Jersey. And I think there are four government grant programs that we're looking at right now that potentially we could apply for and could involve grant money. So that's a good example. There is one at Long Ridge, which we already have and I think we could supplement that as well. And yes, there is going to be a lot of, I mean as the plan starts to take shape, there is obviously some key elements to and a lot of it is green focused. So that's going to be something we're thinking about. We've got a number of initiatives on new projects around that, around ammonia, around hydrogen, around plastics recycling. So yes. I think it's great, because you do have to have projects there semi-ready. Not all going to be shovel ready. If you have some semi-ready, it's so much easier to get money even if you're in the permitting phase and you have to do a [Indecipherable]. It's like -- that's like four years. So, I think it's, I think we're going to figure out there's going to be some good things we're going to be able to tap into.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Got it. But probably a little bit too early in terms of figuring out what that could mean from a capital investment avoidance or the timeline.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. But I'm pretty sure we're going to get some. I mean I remember rail in America we got I think like $300 million of government grant money over a seven-year period so it's a huge and there are projects that come up that you never expect. So it's going to have an impact, trading with hours invested in. And I think we're, it's going to be beneficial.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

That's helpful. And then I think -- if I think bigger picture about some of the proposed changes in taxes including kind of capitalized capital gains and carried interest will that have any impact in terms of your bigger picture plans to to kind of unlock some value by spinning off kind of aviation and Infrastructure or how the manager is compensated or even how you guys monetize assets more broadly across the portfolio.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I don't think so. I mean, we started to think about that obviously. There is very little to look at yet in terms of specifics. It's mostly concepts. But so far setting up the USC Corp is not anything that -- it might be that instead of a 21% range. It's a 28% but everybody's going to be in the same boat and if there is a minimum tax maybe you don't get to shelter as much in terms, so -- but it still makes-it's still a better structure for us to get rid of lines and that's something that that we are looking at and it's on the target list of things to do and hopefully we'll be able to do something at the end of the -- by the end of this year, but that's -- we're working on it and I don't see any impediments.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Really appreciate the perspective.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next, we have the line of Justin Long from Stephens. Your line is open.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. So, Joe, you gave the guidance for the Aviation business to do over $80 million of EBITDA in the second quarter, but could you talk a little bit more about what you're expecting for aviation EBITDA in the third and fourth quarter, just as we think about that exit rate this year and how that sets the stage for 2022.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Well, if you do the math you know it's going to be over $100 million for each of the Q3 and Q4. So that's -- it's pretty simple. How much? We're thinking obviously, Q3 historically has been one of the biggest quarters and that's where you can high utilization and we can get everything moving. But I also think that this year, I expect to be somewhat different in that you can't, I mean people have a lot of trips that they haven't taken for the last 15 months and you can take 10 trips in a week. So I think there's going to be a rollover in the seasonality. I think in this year will probably be less than it has been historically in that people will be traveling in Q4 and Q1 to see their relatives or their customers, their friends or just to get out of wherever they open had been. So I think that flying levels are going to -- should be sustained I think more so than they have been in the past. So that's kind of the rough guidance. We're expecting a good fourth quarter as well.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay, got it. So 3Q and 4Q, it sounds like maybe pretty similar. I know the other element that I was thinking about was just the parts and service business in some of the partnerships, you've announced and how that could ramp. But it sounds like a pretty even split in the back half between the two quarters.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So I think that some of the initiatives could, there is a little bit of a flywheel effect that you get bigger as you go and you might do more part out and more trading in the fourth quarter than we have in the third quarter because in Q3 you want to use everything you've got. People will be hoarding and Q4 will probably be more trading opportunities, but not -- I think it'll be better than any other year but it's comparable I think.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Okay, great. And then just a bigger picture strategic question. I know there have been discussions on prior calls about splitting up the company at some point. Any updated thoughts around the probability of that materializing and the potential timing of that decision.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We have -- It is on the list of priorities of things to do and I think we have a couple of other items we need ahead of that. But then I believe it will be fairly on top of the list and hopefully we get something done by the end of this year. That would be my personal goal, not a stake in the ground yet, but it's a goal that I think is something we all agree we want to do it.

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks. I appreciate the time.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next, we have the line of Robert Dodd from Raymond James. Your line is open.

Robert Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Hi, guys and congratulations on the outlook. If I can go to Repauno. You said, I mean basically you sold out through the third quarter, can you give us any color on, you know, there is congestion in other areas, the shipping etc, etc. How is the competition to get slots at Repauno and our basic -- are the customers -- potential customers starting to try and talk to you about longer-term deals to kind of lock up either dock slots or storage slots or anything like that longer-term rather than on an as needed basis.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, they are quite a good commercial response. And I think it gets to the, what we always felt is before you are in operation, people are inherently skeptical and not willing to commit because they've seen too many projects that didn't get -- that didn't complete. So the big step for us was in January loading the first vessel being in service. And now we've basically got 30 ships. We're going to be very, very busy for Q2 and Q3, which is seasonally the very, the strong market for propane and butane, but the number of PDH plants being built around the world and the volume of export of natural gas liquids continues to grow and we are really the only other terminal to market shock [Phonetic] in the East Coast of the United States. So I think the commercial response has been great. So now it's about how do we grow, how do we expand our capacity, because as you point out, we will be -- our slots -- our dock will be occupied pretty much fully in second and third quarter. So then the next expansion is going to be a dock 2 and additional underground storage and we're in the process of getting both of those permitted. So that's the -- that's the sequence. I think once we have -- the summer is over, I think we're, our plan is to go to off-takers and try to get multi-year commitments from them by the end of this year for that additional capacity. The other thing we're looking at right now, we're primarily going to be rail served. And so we're also -- the other option is for connectivity, meaning types. So that would be another big on jump up in terms of capacity and and efficiency.

Robert Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Thank you, Joe. I appreciate it. One quick one on the Aviation side. Can you give us a full shop visit obviously [Indecipherable] I mean it takes months. I mean, not just the booking type but the actual time in the shop. What's the time differential between a full shop visit of module swaps because obviously we can sell so people $50 million on the cost plus three months. So that's it. It's not just the cost it's the time versus say -- and then on the wing module swaps, how fast, is that a fly in/fly out like two days later kind of thing?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. When you can't -- you couldn't do a module swaps on wing. But you can do certain repairs on wing and we're looking at -- and doing more than is sort of very efficient. So there are partnerships we're talking about now to do to provide that on wing service that will give us really a more -- it just expands our portfolio of things we can do to save airlines money. In terms of very module swaps into the full shop is that you're talking about the difference in time is probably between six months for a full shop visit versus under 30 days for a module swap. So you can go -- you can show an airline and we've done this $1 million of cost savings, just from that the time savings. So there are huge amounts of money involved in savings through people figuring out how to use this service and we today have 43 modules in inventory. So it's not like you're going into a store that's about to open and say, do you have anything or can I preorder and it's like if we have it, so the savings are going to be -- people are going to learn and then you experiment and say, well, I can do that and it's, we think it's going to be quite a quite a big thing.

Robert Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Next we have a question from the line of Ari Rosa from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Great. Good morning, Joe, Alan and Scott. So I wanted to start on the Aviation side. Obviously last year thinking about acquiring aviation assets was kind of toxic in some spaces and increasingly as the market improves, it seems like you know basically consensus that demand for air travel is going to continue. I'm wondering has that changed the availability of assets, as you look to build the portfolio. And do you think the pace of asset acquisitions potentially slows because of that or how do you see that kind of playing out and how is the market evolved for aviation assets over the last couple of months?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

It's a good question. The -- I mean typically when you have these severe downturns, I mean the answer is, we think there will be a very good market for investing in additional assets and particularly assets that are off lease because that is something that it's very tough for any anybody with the portfolio doesn't want to have more assets off lease. That's really where I think our primary opportunity will -- has risen and will rise. And typically, when you get a severe downturn at the bottom and everybody knows you're in the worst downturn, no one wants to sell. And so there are some great deals and we've picked up a few and we've bought some but generally the volume is not very significant because nobody's -- people are not that stupid and they know it's, this is not a good time to sell. But as start -- as markets start to recover and prices have moved up and they already have I think a little bit. So if they were down 40% now to down 30% then, but I think you start to see a lot more volume and so I think we'll see it a number of cleanup trades where people are saying, I've got 10 aircraft off the lease and I just want to get rid of them and that is starting. So I think we're going to --and also still have airlines looking at funding to phase out of my older assets and buy newer assets. Then I'll do a sale leaseback. So I think the market opportunity is going to be good because of that. It's not the rock bottom steels that we might have seen in 2020, but it will be good prices that have a lot of upside and I think will be more volume.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

So within that Joe, any expectation on kind of what the portfolio looks like in terms of assets by the end of the year.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, we've -- historically we've invested between $300 million and $500 million in assets a year I would suspect will be in that range, potentially higher but that's more episodic. Tt's harder projecting. Maybe by the end of this year, people will be doing more of these cleanup trades as I said. So I think that that's still good, a good number to plan with.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Okay, great. That's really helpful. And then just turning to Jefferson, congratulations on completing pipeline construction with Motiva. Just obviously building a pipeline implies a long-term commitment. I just wanted to get a better understanding of how you're thinking about structuring those contracts with Exxon and Motiva and how you guys are thinking about that long-term commitment and maybe how how you're kind of anticipating the short-term benefits balanced against kind of those the longer-term outlook for the pipeline.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. The goal is to get 5 to 10-year contracts and the first few deals we did were shorter because we wanted to get --the first deal we did with Exxon was a three-year deal on refined products, then we've built six pipelines and we didn't really have much in commitment. Now we're talking about extending those terms as I said between 5 and 10 years and adding a lot of volume to it for contracts between 5 and 10 years. Motiva, we did the first deal we did on the storage and contractors are million barrels of storage. And the deal is structured so that if we never built the pipeline, the term on he storage was three years. But when we complete the pipeline the storage contracts changed from three years to five years. So that's exactly what they wanted. They wanted to piping [Phonetic] built because that's more efficient for them and save them money. So I think that's the goal is 5 to 10-year contracts. There's obviously sometimes we'll do a shorter deal to get to get in and get started and then look for growth which usually happens, and that's the beauty of this business is usually people go, they add things. They don't take things away once you're wired in and once you're set up.

The other market they were still -- Canadian market has been on and off market and it's sort of not ideal because you don't want to just keep moving barrels when that arb is open. So the key to that I think is the DRU. The DRU makes it a ratable flow and if people invest in hundreds of millions of dollars in the DRU it can only move by rail. So there, I think you can get 10-year contracts and there is one that's been built that had a 10-year contract and we think more will be built. So, ideally, I'd like to transform that Canadian move into a 10-year fixed contract, which I think is doable, and I think we're closer to that than ever before.

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Got it. All very exciting in terms of the prospects for Jefferson. Thanks for the time.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Oglenski from Barclays. Your line is open.

Brandon Oglenski -- Barclays -- Analyst

Hey, good morning and thanks for taking the question. Joe, I wanted to come back to $450 million guidance for aviation EBITDA this year because I think in the back half of the year would actually imply something closer like $150 million run rate for 3Q and 4Q. Do we have our math off there and maybe what are we missing?

Scott Christopher -- Chief Financial Officer

No, it's obviously -- Yes. If we have, we had $60 million in Q1, let's call it more than $80 million in Q2, is you're close to $150 million you get the $450 million, that's $300 million. So you're going to do -- you're going to come up with $300 million in the back half of the year.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

That is correct.

Brandon Oglenski -- Barclays -- Analyst

I guess is it utilization in the fleet. Or can you speak more to how you're going to get paid on this module ideal with Lockheed because we do understand it's a partnership so where do you generate the revenue and EBITDA opportunity from that?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

So every modules swaps or exchange or sale, we're estimating $0.5 million or more in EBITDA, so we think that there is potential for that. We have 43 modules in inventory right now and we expect that we would hope to turn those frequently so it is, and some of the income and obviously comes from that but we also have the Chromalloy joint venture and we have the AAR part of our business as well, so that the USM the AAR deal on the part out has been very well received and is actually fully operational now and we have turned I believe like seven engines. So it is -- And AAR is very happy with it and there's large -- there's a lot of demand for USM. So really it's all of those things that it will be increased line, which generates a lot more maintenance reserves from the portfolio. It will be Chromalloy, it will be AAR, it will be the module factory and then it will be that part of our business all combined.

Brandon Oglenski -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay. So, still confident that the full year will be $450 million. It's not like an exit rate of $450 million.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

No, no.

Brandon Oglenski -- Barclays -- Analyst

Okay, understood. Yeah. And then I guess just last one for me, Joe. Strategically infrastructure has obviously been the one that we've been waiting to get pretty solid contribution from over the years. Just wondering if the cryptocurrency opportunity, obviously, it could be very lucrative for you, but I think that would involve another capital outlay and introduce volatility. So, is that the right step forward, especially as you think about potentially separating the company in the future?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I do think when you think about that business, the integration with low cost energy is to me very compelling. And so that's kind of what drove us to think about that is when we think about the highest and best use for electricity it's that's $150 a megawatt hour today versus 30 for[Phonetic] industrial activities. So it really is, I don't know exactly where that will go, but it felt like worth exploring and figuring it out so that we can, because we do have an asset. We had some of the people coming to us saying they want to use our asset and they wanted to make all the money. So I think, well it's not that hard to bind machines within the business. So why don't we make the money and then see where that leads us whether that's a separate activity or where it evolves or how it turns into it just felt like a good -- we have one of the best assets in the world for that activity right now and it happened to be, we got lucky that it's actually coming online in August with Bitcoin at $50,000. So it was really -- it's a little opportunistic in that sense, and how it evolves into infrastructure and how people think about as TBD [Phonetic] It's not that is, it's not that much of the capital outlay and paybacks are under two years. So I think we're breakeven on getting the money back and Bitcoin is like $20,000. So, and you can stop the activity to keep doing and somebody will say although it's really volatile, volatility is negative and it's like well I don't know if Bitcoin goes through $100,000, we'll have all of our money back in a couple of months. So why is that bad.

Brandon Oglenski -- Barclays -- Analyst

I appreciate the response.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Devin Ryan for from JMP Securities. Your line is open.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Okay, great. Good morning. Most questions have been asked, but I want to ask one just about the dividend. I think before the pandemic, there was a lot of talk about progressing the dividend or at least moving toward an increase. And yeah, obviously in the past year, I think was a good reminder around capital and potentially over capitalization and the ability to be opportunistic as that you guys clearly have been. And so just maybe to talk briefly about how you guys are thinking about the trajectory of the dividend, just kind of taking that in consideration. Also just the fact that there so many compelling opportunities to deploy capital back into the business for growth right now. So just, yeah, it's kind of thoughts have changed revolved around that.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. It hasn't really changed. Obviously, we're looking to maintain a 2 to 1 coverage and toward the back half of this year with the numbers we're looking at, we would be greater than that. So we would potentially -- that would put us in a position where we'd be looking for a dividend increase. So we haven't changed our philosophy on the dividend.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Okay, great. And then just one last follow-up here on Long Ridge really interesting conversation on crypto especially you're kind of given your clean energy angle. So I think it makes a lot of sense. Do you have, I guess it's early but, is the intention to hold good kind of Bitcoin beyond cut operating costs. Have you guys kind of thought that through. If you're comfortable holding on the balance sheet or if you just want to sell it as you mine if there's kind of consideration there. And then, I'm assuming that with this kind of increased opportunity this probably pushes off the thoughts around selling the remaining stake in Long Ridge or potentially maybe doesn't make sensitive at all to the extent there is a terrific kind of newer opportunity. So just maybe a little bit more flavor for that as well.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

So there's a lot there, as you can imagine, we've -- I mean our base case right now is to sell the coins that we mine as we mine them, but it obviously is something that we should think about in terms of buy, sell, hold and we have -- but our base case plan is to sell as we mine them that's the way we look at the model to date, but obviously there's flexibility there. In terms of whether it accelerates or not the disposition, it's really a valuation issue, I mean if we look at some of the other public comps that don't stack up as well as we do the valuations are astounding. So I don't know whether what it does to our timeline on holding. It really is -- it's hard to know.

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Yeah. I understand a lot of moving parts, but very interesting. So I appreciate you taking my questions.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Frank Galanti from Stifel. Your line is open.

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

Great, thank you very much. I wanted to dig into the PMA business a little bit and kind of ask about the -- if there's been any progress on acceptance of the part from the broader community. I guess specifically how many parts have been sold, I mean how many have been put into your engines so far. And then how many engines have you repaired in the Montreal facility and what percentage of that has been yours?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

So then it's actual specifics on every one of those questions, but we have -- in the Montreal facility, everything that we've inducted is ours so it's not for third party. So we're using that for our own. Our own assets are in there, and I believe there have been like 30 engines inducted something like that. I mean. Yeah, let me get you an exact number on that, but those are all our engines the PMA we have ordered sets. I think we, under 10 sets of the veins, so -- and those, I don't know if any of those have yet been installed. I mean we have them -- we've received them say a month ago and we're planning the installation of those as we have outlook for the rest of the year in terms of shop visits, so I don't know that there are a couple of other airlines have also ordered those parts from Chromalloy and I don't have the exact sense as to where I know one of them has been installed, but I don't know the status of all of those deliveries so far.

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

No, I think you got most of it. I guess just following up on that the Montreal facility, you said roughly, 30 directionally is fine, but the intention for that is over time to have third-party engines in there, correct, in addition to your own?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, when you say third party, I mean we would be -- so the inventory of modules that we have are all in Montreal. They're all 43 R engines. So those are -- so we're not managing shop visits for other people at that facility. Those are R engines that we own.

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then kind of switching gears a little bit to the Jefferson facility, with the pipeline completed and a little bit of progress potentially of North with the DRU, do you have like a base case long-term profitability outlook for that asset, right, with several hundred million dollars invested, I guess what do you look at as like a base and upside case for what those assets could realistically earn.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I think we've indicated that we believe based on the assets we have today. We could generate $150 million of EBITDA out in the future. And in this year obviously we projected it around in such we would be exiting the year at $80 million. So, then it's a question of how you layer in that incremental business and when it is kicked in in 2022 or 2023. How do you -- what's the ramp on that, we don't, we haven't given a specific quarter by quarter estimate on that.

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

Okay. No, those general numbers are fine. And one last question if I could. Can you give us an update on capex needs for the company, outside of additional engine purchases, right, that $170 million LOI, what capex is needed to kind of keep the Aviation business operating and how does that compare. So, like how does this year kind of a weird year compared to a more normalized environment. And then what additional capex is needed at the other three infrastructure projects?

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, one way we've talked the maintenance capex is if you were to do the shop visits for every engine that we own when it's due to be done, which is not something you necessarily have to do. We estimate that to keep that fully running permanently would be about $50 million per annum of investment per year. So think of maintenance capex and the existing aviation assets is roughly $50 million. The second part of it is the capital expenditure programs we had for Long Ridge, Repauno and Jefferson are really behind us. So other than new contracts that we would get, we don't really have significant capex at those that those investments today, but we're hoping we will have capex that's not a bad thing. It's just we would only do it to expand and grow at this point. And then obviously the biggest one would be, if we spend Repauno with additional say for instance 3 million barrels of storage, which is what we're sort of our target number of underground storage caverns that would be another $300 million of capital. But we believe that we could generate $150 million in EBITDA from that. So that's the biggest one that is out there remaining. But it's not committed at this point.

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

And I guess just on Long Ridge on the Bitcoin Investment, what's the capEx requirements for the various projects like that 20 million, sorry 20 megawatt power. How much do you need to put in mining equipment to --

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

We got $70 million [Phonetic] I think. So the first 2 million first 2 megawatts represents about I think 630 machines and there are about 11,000, 12,000 today, very elevated price. So if it's roughly about 7 million for this investment that we're making in August and would be 10 times that if we wanted to go to 20 million and we also have 50-50 partner at Long Ridge. So we'd expect that to be halved.

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

Sure. Yeah, that makes sense. Great. Thank you for the time. Really appreciate it.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

We have a question coming from the line of Rob Salmon from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

So just to piggyback on the discussion in terms of Bitcoin, can you give us a sense of what the sensitivity is to changing in Bitcoin prices to what kind of advertise annualized EBITDA would be if you're thinking, whether you want to talk about the 2 we're talking about the 20. Just so we can get a sense of how that would impact our models. If we see prices generate either upwards or downwards.

Scott Christopher -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, so I could speak to that. Yes, so just if were to take a sensitivity of what, let's call it 10% a year price deep whether this is an increase or decrease it's about, call it, $12 million of impact to EBITDA impact in either direction on the 20 megawatts. So I think Joe touched on that today's Bitcoin prices, it's about a $45 million per year EBITDA increase of 20 megawatts and so if you knew Bitcoin price up or down, let's call it $12 million a year of EBITDA impact.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Thanks, Scott. That's really helpful. And I guess the other kind of real quick follow-up that I had is with regard to the Aviation expectations for the second quarter. Can you give us a sense of what you have built into the model from maintenance revenue perspective that's obviously been really depressed in the past couple of -- the past two quarters, as well as kind of the other revenue contributions from the JV, just so we know if we're seeing a better underlying demand environment, just so we can kind of better sensitize our models for either upside or downside there.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So the maintenance activity we're seeing a big uptick in maintenance and flying hours in April. So call it would probably 30%, 40% increase in maintenance revenue from Q1 to Q2. And that's just April, which we don't know obviously the rest of the quarter yet. And then what was the second question?

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

I was just curious how contribution for maintenance versus other revenue. But that kind of give you an answer the sensitivity there.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

That corner we do [Indecipherable].

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Okay. I really appreciate the time and follow-up guys.

Scott Christopher -- Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, it's probably order of magnitude 10 million or so from that in Q2, up from negligible in Q1.

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Makes sense. Thank you.

Scott Christopher -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks.

Operator

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Mr Alan Adreini for any further comments.

Alan Andreini -- Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Patricia. And thank you all for participating in today's conference call. We look forward to updating you after Q2. Thanks.

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 81 minutes

Call participants:

Alan Andreini -- Head of Investor Relations

Joseph P. Adam -- Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Unidentified Speaker

Scott Christopher -- Chief Financial Officer

Josh Sullivan -- Benchmark Company -- Analys

Guiliano Bologna -- Compass Point -- Analyst

Christian Wetherbee -- Citi -- Analyst

Robert Salmon -- Wolfe Research -- Analyst

Justin Long -- Stephens -- Analyst

Robert Dodd -- Raymond James -- Analyst

Ariel Rosa -- Bank of America -- Analyst

Brandon Oglenski -- Barclays -- Analyst

Devin Ryan -- JMP Securities -- Analyst

Frank Galanti -- Stifel -- Analyst

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