Independent Bank Group Inc (IBTX) Q3 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

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Independent Bank Group Inc (IBTX -3.82%)
Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Oct 26, 2021, 8:30 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Independent Bank Group Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions]

It is now my pleasure to introduce Paul Langdale, Executive Vice President, Corporate Development and Strategy. Thank you. You may begin.

Paul Langdale -- Senior Vice President, Director of Corporate Development

Good morning, everyone. I am Paul Langdale, Executive Vice President of Corporate Development and Strategy for Independent Bank Group, and I would like to welcome you to the Independent Bank Group Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. We appreciate you joining us. The related earnings press release and the slide presentation can be accessed on our website at ibtx.com.com. I would like to remind you that remarks made today may include forward-looking statements. Those statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual and expected results to differ. We intend such statements to be covered by safe harbor provisions for forward-looking statements. Please see Page 5 of the text in the release or Page 2 of the slide presentation for our safe harbor statement. All comments made during today's call are subject to that statement. Please note that if we give guidance about future results, that guidance is a statement of management's beliefs at the time the statement is made and we assume no obligation to publicly update guidance. In this call, we will discuss a number of financial measures considered to be non-GAAP under the SEC's rules. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our release. I'm joined this morning by David Brooks, our Chairman and CEO; Dan Brooks, our Vice Chairman; and Michelle Hickox, Executive Vice President and CFO. At the end of their remarks, David will open the call to questions.

And with that, I'll turn it over to David.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Paul. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining the call today. For the third quarter, we reported EPS of $1.21 per share, group tangible book value of $34.79 per share and maintained healthy asset quality with net charge-offs near zero for the quarter. We are pleased to see the continuation of loan growth at about 5% for the quarter, which was consistent with our expectations of a slower summer being followed by accelerating demand into the fall. Likewise, deposit growth remained strong at 12.1% annualized for the quarter, further bolstering our liquidity position and increasing our optionality in managing the funding costs. During the quarter, we also repurchased a total of 217,772 shares of our common stock at an average price of $69.80 per share. This is consistent with our long-standing commitment to return capital and deliver returns to our shareholders.

With that overview, I'll now turn the call over to Michelle for more detail on the operating results for the quarter.

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, David. Good morning, everyone. Note that Slide 6 shows selected financial data for the quarter. Our third quarter adjusted net income was $52.6 million or $1.22 per diluted share compared with $59.6 million or $1.38 per diluted share for the third quarter last year and $58.2 million or $1.35 per diluted share for the linked quarter. Net interest income was $128.6 million in the third quarter compared to $132 million in the third quarter last year and down slightly from $129.3 million in the linked quarter. Accretion income was down $1.2 million from the linked quarter and $3.2 million from the prior year and totaled $4 million in Q3.

PPP fees were also lower at $4 million in Q3 versus $5.1 million in Q2. These decreases were partially offset by interest income on growth in the securities portfolio in interest-bearing cash. There are approximately $6.5 million of deferred PPP fees remaining to be recognized, and we expect 75% of that will be recognized in Q4. The NIM excluding accretion was 2.91%, down 11 basis points from the linked quarter. The decrease is primarily due to continued increases in liquidity, which impacted the margin by 7 basis points.

Total non-interest income was $16.9 million for the third quarter, an increase of $970,000 compared to the linked quarter. The increase in non-interest income over the linked quarter is primarily due to an increase of $745,000 in mortgage banking revenue. Non-interest expense totaled $80.6 million for the third quarter, an increase of $2.6 million over the linked quarter. This was driven by increases of $2.7 million in salary and benefit expense. This quarter includes unusually high expense for senior staff signing bonuses, as well as bonuses paid to employees that has leaned in on PPP. Contract labor increased $550,000 from Q2 due to the initiation of several infrastructure projects. In addition, deferred loan costs were down $890,000 from Q2. As loan volume picks up, we would expect this to return to a normal run rate. Expenses related to the PPP forgiveness continue to impact the non-interest expense run rate and totaled $2.1 million in Q3, including consulting, contract labor and bonuses. PPP expenses should decrease significantly in Q4 with only a small impact expected in 2022.

Slide 19 shows our deposit mix and cost. Total deposits were $15.5 billion as of quarter end, with total non-interest bearing deposits up by $279.1 million from the linked quarter and $726.4 million from the third quarter of 2020. Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased from 45 basis points in Q2 to 40 basis points in Q3. With a sustained growth in our core deposits, we continue to evaluate and pursue opportunities to optimize our funding costs where appropriate.

Capital ratios are presented on Slide 21. In the third quarter, the Company's consolidated capital ratios remained strong with a common equity Tier-1 capital ratio of 11.06% and a total capital ratio of 13.64%. As David mentioned, we repurchased $15.2 million or about 218,000 shares of our common stock during the quarter in addition to the redemption of a $40 million tranche of 5.75% subordinated debt.

That concludes my comments this morning. So, I will turn it over to Dan to discuss the loan portfolio.

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

Thanks, Michelle. Overall loans held for investment, excluding mortgage warehouse purchase loans, were $11.5 billion at quarter end compared to $11.6 billion in the linked quarter. Excluding the impact of PPP loans, core loans held for investment increased by $129.7 million over the linked quarter. Loan growth continues to be driven by broad-based relationship lending to our customers across Texas and Colorado.

PPP loans on balance sheet totaled $243.9 million at quarter end, down from $490.5 million in the linked quarter. Average mortgage warehouse purchase loans decreased slightly to $838.5 million for the quarter, but remained near the second-quarter average balance of $850.5 million.

Credit quality metrics continue to remain strong overall. Total nonperforming assets increased to $82.8 million or 0.44% of total assets at quarter end, which is due primarily to the addition of two commercial relationships totaling $17.8 million and one commercial real estate loan totaling $11.7 million. There were nearly zero net charge-offs for the third quarter. At September 30, 2021, the allowance for credit losses on loans is $150.3 million or 1.34% of loans held for investment, excluding PPP and mortgage warehouse loans.

These are all the comments I have related to the loan portfolio this morning. So with that, I'll turn it back over to David.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Dan. We remain encouraged by the loan growth prospects into the fourth quarter and our pipelines continue to be supported by strong demand from relationship borrowers across our footprint. We are also encouraged by the momentum building from the new hires we have made over the past year, especially when it comes to growing our middle market C&I business. In addition to this organic growth trajectory, we are continuing to invest in our infrastructure to ensure we are well positioned to capitalize on strategic M&A opportunities when they present themselves. We have expanded our executive leadership team to include John Turpen as Chief Risk Officer, and we're pleased to announce promotion of Michael Hobbs to President and Chief Operating Officer. These additions deepened our executive leadership team in preparation for continued growth into the future.

The Texas and Colorado economies remain two of the most attractive markets in the country, and our teams of bankers continue their disciplined approach of winning new business and expanding existing relationships each day. I'm grateful to all our employees for their tireless dedication to our customers and communities and I remain excited for the opportunities we see on the road ahead.

Thank you for taking the time to join us today. We'll now open the line to questions. Operator?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] One moment please, while we poll for your questions.

Our first questions come from the line of Michael Young with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, everyone.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Michael.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Wanted to just start off on the loan growth side. You mentioned that some of it was a little slower, but curious what you're seeing now as we kind of head into the fall. And would you expect higher growth in the fourth quarter to kind of get you to that high single-digit level that you talked about maybe in the back half? Just any updated thoughts or color around pipeline. All of that would be helpful.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. I think if you look at our second quarter growth, Michael, around 12; this quarter, around 5. That was -- Production was pretty close in the third quarter than what it was in the second quarter, but we had a pretty significant pickup in pay-downs and again, that is just, happened cyclical gains, hard to predict. But that said, the pipeline looks really good for the fourth quarter so far. If we've grown 17% last two quarters, which average about 8.5%, then I think something like that, 8% or so, is what we're expecting, and then depending on the payout levels, it could vary a little from there, but we're still thinking high single digits in the fourth quarter, which would get us for Q2, 3 and 4 on average 8% or better.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks, David. That's helpful. And maybe one for Michelle, just on expenses. You called out the higher PPP-related expenses and then some of the one-time senior management moves during the quarter. So, should we expect some of that $2.5 million or so to come back out, so we're closer to maybe $78 million, $78.5 million run rate from here?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think in the fourth quarter, Michael, we're going to have about $1.3 million of PPP expenses come out of the run rate. We did have unusually high bonus expense related to some senior positions we added, but I wouldn't say pull that out at this point, because we are continuing to add people and the end of the year makes it a little more difficult to bring people on without paying the signing bonuses. So, I think I would stick closer to $79 million for fourth quarter.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks. I'll hop back.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Brad Milsaps with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your questions.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Hey, good morning.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, good morning, Brad.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

David or Dan, I was just curious if you guys could talk about the new loans that are coming on the books, kind of what rates you're seeing in terms of new loan generation? And then maybe as a follow-up for Michelle, if we were to get an increase in the Fed funds rate later next year, what do you think IBTX's leverage would be? 25, 50, 75 basis points higher Fed funds rate in terms of the margin?

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Brad, this is David. Let me start out saying that one of our takeaways from the quarter was that the pricing pressure on the new loans coming on is a little more significant than we felt like -- than what we've really seen earlier in the year. And -- So, that affected our yields a little more than we expected as well. So, we're seeing things in from 3.5% to 4% of the broad range, but -- whereas I felt like earlier in the year, on balance, we were booking loans in the upper threes and I felt like were down 10 to 20 basis points from that of what the book that you're putting on in the third quarter. Dan can give any additional color there, but...

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

No, I don't have any additional color to add on to that, Dave.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. So, that's kind of what I think on the loan yields, Brad. Just a little tougher sledding and maybe a little more headwind there than we'd expected. But -- So...

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I think -- As it relates to your question about NIM, Brad, I think the real question is, with all the liquidity in the market, how much that funds increase is going to impact longer term rates. And I'm not sure -- We are currently more asset sensitive than we have been since I've been here, maybe the history of the bank. So, we will benefit from a Fed funds increase, but I'm really not sure how much that will impact longer term rates at least in the next year, just given the liquidity in the market.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Michelle, that's helpful. Would you anticipate -- With long rates up a bit here, would you anticipate you guys getting more aggressive and adding to the bond portfolio with some of your liquidity that you've got? I mean, I think on average, it was approaching $3 billion in the quarter?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

We expect it to be over $2 billion by the end of this year. So, we continue to put money in the bond portfolio, especially considering that we continue to see deposits come in and liquidity is growing on our balance sheet. And I think we will continue to do that into '22, as long as it makes sense to offset loan growth. It really doesn't make sense to leave that money, sitting it Fed earning 8 basis points. And I'm -- I guess I'm more convinced now that the liquidity is going to stick around maybe longer than I thought a year ago.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

And to be clear, you expect liquidity to be closer to $2 billion or the bond portfolio to be closer to $2 billion?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The bond portfolio will be a little over $2 billion at the end of the year, and then I expect that we'll continue to grow it through '22 relative to the balance sheet.

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Got it. Helpful. Okay. And just final question for me. Just curious if Dan could offer any more color on the three loans that went to non-accrual this quarter, just any sense for loan to value. Is there any kind of theme? Just any other color that might give us a sense of kind of what -- how you guys are thinking about maybe loss rate through resolution there?

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

Yeah, I think, Brad, in the normal course of resolving credits, in some cases, you'll have a pay-off and in other, you'll see an upgrade and in some cases, they will actually migrate into the non-accrual category because of their longer resolution. I would say the credits that migrated in the third quarter were not unusual in any regard with material equity and on. And so, our expectation is that there would not be any loss exposure that's not accounted for in CECL. Notably, those loans were already on the classified loan list and in total, when you take all of the non-accruals, that number remains at a low level really.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Brady Gailey with KBW. Please proceed with your questions.

Brady Gailey -- KBW -- Analyst

Hey, thank you. Good morning, guys.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Brady.

Brady Gailey -- KBW -- Analyst

I just wanted to start on the buyback. It was good to see you all be a little active there in the quarter, that you bought it back at basically two times tangible book value. I know the stock is higher than that today. So, how do you think about continued buybacks from here?

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Brady, we're going to continue to look for opportunities to buy our stock back and given that the M&A activity has been slower than we expected, given that we continue to accumulate capital more quickly than we're able to grow the bank, if you will, or more quickly than we need to support the growth of the bank, that's the right way to say that, and we're going to continue to do that. We have our Board meeting later in the week. So, we're not -- the Board will decide the dividend later in the week, but we're going to continue to look at opportunities to get back and we're going to continue to be active and opportunistic and just depending on how the stock's trading.

Brady Gailey -- KBW -- Analyst

Got it, all right. And then on the energy front, I know energy lending is not a big piece of what you guys do. I mean, it's still only 2% of loans. It is up kind of $80 million in the last couple of quarters, that has gone from $200 million to $240 million to now $280 million. Should we think about the energy portfolio kind of continuing to expand at a pretty nice clip here?

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

Yeah, I think, Brady, this is Dan, I would view that as just a continuation of the efforts that we've applied with our team that was added a couple of years ago that came out of one of our peer banks. And they've had opportunity really to get engaged in significant great credits that have afforded us the opportunity to be a part of those. I think we will continue to see some growth in there. I don't think it will be outsized. I think it will be comparable to what we've seen as those opportunities present themselves to us. So, there will be some growth. I don't think I would consider that to be any acceleration of that growth.

Brady Gailey -- KBW -- Analyst

Okay. And then finally for me, David, just on M&A. You just mentioned that's been a little slower than maybe you guys had thought. We saw a big splash of a deal with Johnny Allison and Brian Happy [Phonetic], which I thought may have been a good deal for you all just given all the excess funding that could have brought to Independent, but maybe just a general update on M&A, why do you think it's been slower, and do you guys remain active in chasing targets?

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I would say it this way. Brady. We will remain active in engaging relationships with smaller banks that we admire, that are in our footprint, that are in higher growth markets. That's one of the challenges. If you acquire a large-to-your-balance sheet footprint that's not in the growth market, then you really, I think, limit your growth opportunities going forward. Liquidity is important. Core deposits are critically important. But as Michelle was mentioning, we've been, we think, -- felt like we are being aggressive this year and adding to our bond portfolio, our loan growth has returned to more historical levels and we're still sitting on $3 billion of liquidity. We came into the year hoping that we can deploy that and get that down to a lesser number, hasn't happened. So, that gives us an opportunity, as well, to think about the funding side of the balance sheet and can we or the things we can do to improve our cost of funds. And so, we're looking at all those, evaluating all those opportunities. And so, I would -- yes, certainly, acquisitions have been a part of our track record. We continue to be interested in growing, but our focus has been, as we've talked about this morning, on organic growth, on really building an infrastructure, making sure that we position the company to be in great shape or whenever that next opportunity comes along. And -- So, that's really been our focus and -- focus of our time and of our non-interest expenses.

Brady Gailey -- KBW -- Analyst

Okay, got it. Thanks, guys.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Brady.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group. Please proceed with your questions.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Hey, good morning, David and Michelle.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Wanted to go back to the securities portfolio question, Michelle. And just talking about, you mentioned that it would be $2 billion by the end of the year, was curious what you had bought during 3Q and then what you're looking at and what you -- how do you think that might impact the bond portfolio yield and then kind of as it relates to that, it would seem like your margin would actually potentially move up if you're deploying excess liquidity that's yielding 10 basis points to something north of 1%? Any thoughts on that as well?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

That's true, if we can finally get ahead of the liquidity. Right? Our bond portfolio is very conservative, Brett. We continue to buy mortgage-backed agencies. I think we even bought some treasuries this quarter. And generally, those yields have been averaging 130 [Phonetic]. And so, I think the current yield in our portfolios is a little less than 2%. So, it has trended down this year, but as you say, it is a lot better than the 8 basis points that we can earn instead.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Okay. So, any thoughts on the margin potentially at least having some offset to lower loan yield production going forward?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I've kind of got not the business of predicting the margins just because it looks -- might be wrong or year long. And that's continued to push it down. As David said, we're continuing to look at ways that we could possibly continue to push our cost of funds down. If we could redeploy the liquidity even into the investment portfolio, that would be an offset or even better will be deploying it into loans. So, I think there is some upside, but I'm not going to predict that the margin is going to increase at this point.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Yeah, fair enough. I know it's been hard to predict with liquidity rising. The other thing I was curious about...

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

What I would...

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

I'm sorry. Go ahead, Michelle.

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I am sorry. I mean, what I would continue to emphasize is that we are just looking at ways to grow rather than focusing on margin. Looking at ways to grow net interest income. Right? And then letting the mark-to-market build up.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Okay. And then David, you gave an outlook for the fourth quarter around loan growth. And I guess one of the things I was curious about was to the increase in the unfunded commitment reserve, 6.1 versus 1.7 in the prior quarter for Construction and Energy. And so, I'm curious, as we think about 2022, would seem like Construction could be a category that grows, any thoughts on where the portfolio might be growing more from here? Is it construction? Is it what you've been wanting to grow, C&I? What are the buckets that you think will have more growth as we go into next year?

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

My suspicion, Brett, is that we're going to see a balance. Continued balance in the growth that we're seeing is really not one area that we're focused on. We're seeing more opportunities there. Certainly, a lot of construction going on in Denver and Colorado Front Range and all our Texas markets by via virtue if you drive around there, a lot of cranes and things. So, construction is a part of what we're seeing. But I don't think of it as being dominant. I'd say the biggest change, if there is a change in our mix, is that C&I is really picking up and kicking in. The people we've hired, the great teams that we've hired across Texas and adding to our team in Colorado are really getting some traction and we expect that to be a big part of what we see in fourth quarter and really in '22 and beyond. Strong growth there. And then, it really just what we've always done well, which is strong real estate and small business lending and medical practice lending and all those things that we've done well. And the real estate really across the board, McKinney. Because of our airport here, as an example, we're seeing tremendous industrial growth out by the airport, a new Amazon facility there and people opting to bring their goods through McKinney's airport as opposed to DFW or Love Field. So, those are just some of the -- a little bit of color behind what we're seeing, but good balance across the portfolio on growth.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the color there. And then maybe just the last thing, around the mortgage warehouse. Would assume that seasonality plays its usual impact in the fourth quarter. Any sense of the magnitude that you're looking at in terms of how that might play out?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

As you're out with seasonality, you could see their average balances drop a bit, but I think they've done a good job of adding some new customers. And so, we still think that $800 million average is best for this quarter.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Okay, great. Appreciate all the color.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Brett.

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next questions come from the line of Matt Olney with Stephens. Please proceed with your questions.

Matt Olney -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks, guys. Wanted just to stick on the mortgage warehouse discussion. David, you mentioned the comments about loan yield pressure in the third quarter versus the first half of the year. I assume that was more on traditional commercial loans. If so, any comments about warehouse yield pressure? Thanks.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. My comments were more based upon our traditional commercial loan strategy. I do think there's been a lot of competition in the mortgage warehouse that Michelle have a] had a handle on their yields compared.

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think that has come down a bit and from the beginning of the year, but I don't know that it's that significant.

Matt Olney -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

Okay. And then Michelle, circling back to the commentary about the investment securities portfolio and maybe adding in some more balance to the fourth quarter. I think right now, investment securities around 10% of earning assets. Any more color as far as the tolerance of where this could go as we move into 2022?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we don't really have a limit. I think historically that balances run around 7% of our balance sheet just because we've had such a high loan-to-deposit ratio. We'll just -- We'll continue to evaluate that, Matt, and fit any excess liquidity in there to offset the loan growth. So, it could grow to $2.5 billion by the end of next year, but really, we'll evaluate that as the year goes along.

Matt Olney -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

Yeah, understood. Thank you. And then I guess my last question is around the allowance ratio. I think we're now at 134 [Phonetic] once I strip out the warehouse and PPP. Just trying to appreciate where this could go. I think the original CECL adoption allowance was around 137-ish [Phonetic], but that did include maybe a PCD loan. So, how should we think about that reserve ratio over the next few quarters?

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Matt, our take on it, as we've been saying, is that we'll grow into our asset quality trends. Dan can share some of that here in a moment, but our asset quality trends, I think, will be a tailwind and then the economic factors that go into the model are going to be a tailwind, we think, in '22. So, we're -- as we look out at the loan growth rates we're looking at, with the information we have today, we're not expecting to take a material loan loss provision even in '22. And so, depending on the assumption for loan growth, we think loan growth in '22 of 7%, 8%, core loan growth in '22. And when we factor all that out, the loan loss reserve certainly will -- the ratio would dip down. Dan, any comments you've got on the tailwinds? And -- But we certainly don't think we're going to need 134 [Phonetic] and so, we're going to be willing to let that drift down. I don't -- we haven't ever talked about a lower limit, but obviously we're just going to work with CECL model and comply with whatever the results are as all the banks are doing. So, Dan, any comments on that or...?

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

Yeah, I would say, I think, as David said, the growth will naturally bring that down some, but we don't expect it to change a great deal in the course of the next year. I did want to circle back on the asset quality side. I think the bigger picture here beyond a couple of credits that were downgraded to non-performing in the quarter is the strength of asset quality here. Overall, remains very strong. We indicated in 2020 mid-year that we expected the portfolio to perform very well during the course of recession and we did expect some grade migration that would be attributable to the deferrals. And I think that is, in fact, what we saw in 2020. And then earlier this year, we also said that we expected improvement in grades in the back half of this year and that is exactly what we're seeing. Criticized and classified loans have steadily declined each of the last three quarters from pay-offs and upgrades with more in process for the next few quarters. In fact, we had a 15% decrease in criticized loans in Q3 alone. Overall, the non-accrual portfolio, we still expect several of those to resolve in the next few quarters with either no loss or any potential loss exposure already accounted for in the CECL reserve. So, as David indicated, we don't expect any material change or provisions to be made, especially with the tailwinds of improving economy.

Matt Olney -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks, guys.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Brett Rabatin with Hovde Group. Please proceed with your questions.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Hey, David. I just had one follow up around talent and you talked about doing some hiring, obviously, at the senior management level and doing some infrastructure build. Can you maybe give us some color on how many lenders you've added this quarter or this year relative to the existing production base and how you think about that and maybe going forward as well?

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Brett, I actually don't have an updated number there. There has been activity and continuing activity weekly on that, but we've had hired a material number of new middle-market C&I lenders. Our team in Texas has expanded, continue to expand and we've added to our teams in Houston, in Dallas-Fort Worth and Denver, Colorado, a number of new team members there as well. So, I'm sorry, I don't have a number. We can get that back to you, Brett, exactly what that -- what our net -- what our gross hires and what our net hires are for the year. But it's material and is part of the reason why we are continuing to be encouraged about our growth, even as we focus on infrastructure and making sure that we have our back of the house in order as well.

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Okay. Thanks for that, David.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thanks, Brett.

Operator

Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Michael Young with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Hey, thanks for the follow-up. Just wanted to ask on the residential real estate portfolio. That's been sort of a trading or running off here over the last year, maybe plus a little bit. Any just general thoughts on that just a duration risk kind of concern or could we expect that book to sort of flatten out or start to grow at any point in 2022? Just thoughts around that would be helpful.

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

I'll take that, Michael. This is Dan. The -- As you would expect with the rates down, we certainly saw some refinances out, which is why I think you've seen it decrease somewhat there. On those side, we would expect to continue to book those as we have historically. And I think the overall balance of that portfolio should remain pretty flat as we move forward. In the normal course, because of us providing mortgages to our customers that we know, they will acquire and then ultimately, from time to time, sell them or refinance them. So, the refinances may slow, but I expect that we won't see a big change in that portfolio balance as we move forward.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

There's been a little bit of headwind, Michael, on -- in that particular portfolio. We had -- When we purchased Guaranty Bank in Colorado, they had a relationship with the mortgage company there that they had taken a lot of larger single-family loans. And we didn't continue that relationship because we have our own mortgage entity. And so, a lot of those loans, as time went by, refinanced out and so that creates a headwind in that portfolio. I think, as Dan said, we expect it to level out. And certainly, we'll be opportunistic to the ways to grow it a little bit, but that's not going to be a big part of our growth engine. But we also not expect it to be a lot of headwind.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Okay, really helpful. And Michelle, just as I look at expenses for 2022, kind of know the normal cadence and kind of growth rate that IBTX has experienced in the past, but obviously, inflation potentially is a risk factor to the expense picture. Have you guys done any early work on that, or any thoughts high level just kind of on what that could mean for IBTX?

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we're actually in the process of finalizing our budget for next year right now, but I think, for your purposes, a 3% over total for the year '21 expenses is probably a good place to start.

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks, I appreciate the follow-up.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the call back over to David Brooks for any closing remarks.

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Appreciate your time this morning and look forward to getting back out on the road and the stalling in particularly next spring and look forward to seeing you down around table somewhere. Thanks for your time.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks] Have a great day.

Duration: 39 minutes

Call participants:

Paul Langdale -- Senior Vice President, Director of Corporate Development

David R. Brooks -- Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Michelle S. Hickox -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Daniel W. Brooks -- Vice Chairman

Michael Young -- Truist Securities -- Analyst

Brad Milsaps -- Piper Sandler -- Analyst

Brady Gailey -- KBW -- Analyst

Brett Rabatin -- Hovde Group -- Analyst

Matt Olney -- Stephens, Inc. -- Analyst

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