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Avery Dennison Corporation (NYSE:AVY)
Q3 2021 Earnings Call
Oct 27, 2021, 1:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

  • Prepared Remarks
  • Questions and Answers
  • Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to Avery Dennison's Earnings Conference Call for the Third Quarter Ended on October 2, 2021. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded and will be available for replay from noon Pacific Time today through midnight Pacific Time October 30. To access the replay, please dial 1-800-633-8284. For international callers, please dial 402-977-9140. The conference ID number is 21969421.

I would now like to turn the conference over to John Eble, Avery Dennison's Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

John Eble -- Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Franz. Please note that throughout today's discussion, we'll be making references to non-GAAP financial measures. The non-GAAP measures that we use are defined, qualified and reconciled with GAAP on schedules A4 to A10 of the financial statements accompanying today's earnings release. We remind you that we'll make certain predictive statements that reflect our current views and estimates about our future performance and financial results. These forward-looking statements are made subject to the Safe Harbor statement included in today's earnings release.

On the call today are Mitch Butier, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Greg Lovins, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

I'll now turn the call over to Mitch.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, John, and good day everyone. I'm pleased to report, we delivered another strong quarter. Our two primary businesses achieved impressive top and bottom line growth and momentum in our Intelligent labels platform continues. We are in a higher demand environment that comes at a time of continued and increasing challenges. The ramping up of COVID infections and restrictions in some countries, continued supply chain challenges and additional inflationary pressures are taxing the industry, our customers and our teams. The biggest challenges have been in LGM North America due to raw material shortages and labor and capacity constraints, and in RBIS Vietnam, where output was significantly constrained in the quarter due to COVID restrictions. While we are encouraged by recent trends in these businesses as we've been able to increase output in recent weeks, the supply chain constraints continue.

As for inflation, the pressures continue to increase. We previously expected some abatement in raw material input cost toward the end of the year, whereas, we now expect additional inflation in Q4, as well as Q1 of next year. Now for context on the magnitude of the inflation, in our materials businesses alone, we will be exiting this year with annualized inflation of more than $600 million. That's a nearly 20% increase; a rate we have not seen in decades. We are thus in the midst of another round of price increases.

Despite these hurdles, we continue to achieve impressive results. The team is doing a tremendous job managing through these compounding challenges, focusing on keeping our team safe and delivering for our customers.

Now a brief recap of the segments. Label and Graphic Materials posted strong topline growth for the quarter over coming the challenges I just highlighted as demand for consumer packaged goods and e-commerce trends continued to drive strong volume growth in our Label and Packaging Materials business, while growth in our Graphics and Reflective Solutions business continues to rebound. LGM's profitability remained strong, though margins were down from last year due to the increasing inflationary headwinds and higher costs in the quarter from the supply chain constraints. Given the increasing inflationary pressures, we have redoubled our efforts on material reengineering and, as I mentioned previously, are raising prices again.

Retail Branding and Information Solutions delivered strong revenue growth in the quarter and continued to expand margins significantly. The segment grew 22% on a constant currency basis and 14% organically, driven by strength in both high-value product categories, as well as the core Apparel business. [Technical Issues] Impressive performance is despite the significant constraint in South Asia where we have major manufacturing hubs, once again demonstrating the advantages of our global manufacturing network.

Intelligent Labels sales, enterprisewide, were up 15% in the quarter and we are on track for approximately 30% organic growth for the year versus 2020 and 40% versus 2019, toward the higher end of our long-term target. As expected, the continued strong growth in our RFID business was primarily driven by Apparel. Applications outside of Apparel, particularly food and logistics grew faster than the average, though obviously off of a small base. And in Q3, we also closed the acquisition of Vestcom, a business that further expands our position in high-value categories and has the potential to further advance our Intelligent Labels strategy.

In the Industrial and Healthcare Materials segment, sales continue to rebound off prior year lows and were up relative to 2019 by 11% on a constant currency basis. As for margins, they are down as inflationary pressures [Technical Issues] and costs from supply chain disruptions have impacted the segment to a greater degree than LGM.

Overall, I am pleased with the progress we're making at the company on our long-term strategies, while also executing in the near term. We are providing superior service to our customers despite the challenging environment, keeping our team safe and engaged, ramping up investments for the long term and ensuring we continue to deliver for our shareholders.

Given our strong performance in the quarter, we have raised our outlook for the year. We now anticipate an earnings growth of roughly 25% over last year's record and are on track to achieve all of our five-year companywide goals that we established in early 2017.

With that, I'll now hand it over to Greg.

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Mitch and hello everybody. We delivered another strong quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $2.14, up 12% over prior year, and up 29% compared to 2019, driven by significant revenue growth and strong margins. Sales were up 17% ex-currency and 14% on an organic basis compared to prior year, driven by strong volume across the portfolio and higher prices. We also delivered strong growth compared to 2019 with organic sales up 10% versus two years ago.

As Mitch mentioned, our supply chains remain tight and input costs have continued to rise. Both raw material and freight inflation were above our expectations for the quarter and we've continued to [Technical Issues] cost rise as we enter the fourth quarter. We continue to address the cost increases through a combination of product reengineering and pricing, and have announced additional price increases in most of our businesses and regions across the world. Despite the impact of inflation, supply chain disruptions, and the headwind of last year's temporary cost reduction actions, we delivered a strong adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.4%, down 70 basis points from last year and up 120 basis points compared to 2019.

Turning to cash generation and allocation. Year-to-date, we've generated $639 million of free cash flow, up over [Phonetic] $251 million in the third quarter. That's up significantly compared to previous years, driven by our strong net income growth and working capital productivity. And we closed the Vestcom acquisition in the quarter for a total purchase price of roughly $1.45 billion. To fund the acquisition, we used the net proceeds from an $800 million senior note offering in August, along with cash in commercial paper.

Additionally, in the first three quarters of the year, we returned a total of $290 million in cash to shareholders, through $164 million in dividends and the repurchase of over 700,000 shares at an aggregate cost of $126 million. Our balance sheet continues to be strong with a net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.3 at quarter end, at the bottom end of our long-term target leverage range. This gives us significant capacity to continue the disciplined execution of our capital allocation strategy.

Now turning to the segment results. Label and Graphic Materials sales were up 15% ex-currency and 14% on an organic basis, driven by strong volume and roughly 5 points from higher prices. Compared to 2019, sales were up 11% on an organic basis. Label and Packaging Materials sales were up roughly 15% organically, with strong volume growth in both the high-value product categories and the base business. Graphics and Reflective sales were up 11% organically.

And looking at the segments' organic sales growth in the quarter by region, North America sales were up low-double-digits, despite raw material availability challenges that have continued to create extended lead times. Western Europe grew more than 20%, partially due to easier comps, given the impact of the pandemic we saw in Q3 last year. With that said, the business was still up double-digits versus 2019. And overall, emerging market sales were up low-double-digits in the quarter, with double-digit growth in both ASEAN and Latin America and mid-single-digit growth in China.

While LGM's profitability remained strong, adjusted EBITDA margin decreased from last year to 15.9%. This was partially driven by the increased inflationary pressures and the impact of supply constraints, which led to some incremental costs in the quarter, such as expedited freight and overtime to minimize disruptions to customers. And as you know, our goals are to deliver GDP-plus growth and top-quartile returns on capital, with a focus on driving EVA.

Our approach to price increases in material reengineering is designed to do just that as we looked [Technical Issues] at higher material costs on a dollar basis by the end of an inflationary cycle. However, the revenue base from such price increases alone, especially the magnitude we are seeing in the back half of this year, reduces operating margin on a percentage [Technical Issues] with no impact to returns. This pricing impact led to a reduction in operating margin by roughly 0.75% [Phonetic] in the third quarter.

Shifting now to Retail Branding and Information Solutions. RBIS sales were up 22% ex-currency and 14% on an organic basis as growth remained strong in both the high-value categories and the base business due, in part, to lower prior year comps. Compared to 2019, organic growth was up 9%. The Apparel business saw particular strength in the performance and premium channels, and continued double-digit growth in external embellishments.

As Mitch mentioned, Intelligent Labels sales were up organically, roughly 15% and up about 40% compared to 2019. Adjusted operating margin for the segment increased to 13.8% as the benefits from higher volume and productivity more than offset the headwinds from prior year temporary cost reduction actions, higher employee-related costs, and growth investments. The RBIS team is continuing to deliver in this high-growth, high-margin business.

Turning to the Industrial and Healthcare Materials segment. Sales increased 20% ex-currency and 15% on an organic basis, reflecting strong growth in both the Industrial and Healthcare categories. Compared to 2019, sales were up 6% on an organic basis. Adjusted operating margin decreased to roughly 10% as the benefit from higher volume was more than offset by the net impact of pricing, higher freight and raw material costs and higher employee-related cost. Freight, in particular, had an outsized impact on IHM in the quarter, given the significant increases in global shipping costs.

Now, shifting to our outlook for 2021. We have raised our guidance for adjusted earnings per share to be between $8.80 and $8.95, a roughly $0.08 increase to the midpoint of the range. And we now anticipate roughly 15% organic sales growth for the full year, at the high end of our previous range reflecting strong volume growth and the impact from higher prices.

We've outlined some of the key -- the other key contributing factors to this guidance on Slide 12 of our supplemental presentation materials. In particular, the impact of the extra week in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the resulting calendar shift will be a headwind to reported sales growth of roughly 8 points in the fourth quarter of this year, with a roughly $0.30 EPS headwind. The anticipated tailwind from currency translation is now $30 million in operating income for the full year, based on current rates. Most of this benefit came in the first half and will thus create a headwind as we go into 2022 if rates stay where they are now.

And we expect a modest EPS benefit from Vestcom in 2021, net of purchase accounting amortization, which we estimate to be nearly $60 million on an annualized basis and net of financing costs. [Technical Issues] target over $700 million of free cash flow this year, up significantly from previous years.

In summary, we delivered another strong quarter in a challenging environment and we remain on track to deliver on our long-term objectives to achieve GDP-plus growth and top-quartile returns on capital, which together will drive sustained growth in EVA.

We will now open up the call for your questions.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Ghansham Panjabi with Robert W. Baird and Company. Please go ahead.

Ghansham Panjabi -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Yes. Hey guys, good morning, thanks for all the details. I guess starting with RBIS and some of the production issues, a lot of your customers have talked about on the consumer side in Vietnam and just Southeast Asia more broadly. How are you sort of able to navigate through that dynamic? Do you start to see sort of a flex across your different production footprints, etc., as order flow moved? Or just more insight on that dynamic would be helpful.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, absolutely, Ghansham. So, it's exactly what you just said. So Vietnam is what's getting a lot of the press and headlines and it definitely had the biggest impact. But throughout the pandemic, there has actually been different regions that have been impacted more than others, and we've been flexing the global manufacturing network to help offset that. And so specifically, here if you're asking about Vietnam, we were able to leverage specifically China to be able to service that demand in Vietnam. Still impacted growth by a couple of points overall. Question is how much of that is just end demand that won't happen now because the retailers and apparel brand owners won't be able to fulfill more end consumer demand or not. But, yeah, it had an impact of a couple of points is what we estimate, but we were able to -- it would have been larger than that, had we not sourced from China.

Ghansham Panjabi -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Got it. And then just for my second question on inflation, I mean, inflation has been building all year for many different supply chains, including yours. I guess, what surprised you incrementally over the past three months? Which specific categories and which regions are you seeing the most inflation and also did 3Q benefit from any sort of material pre-buys, customers', kind of, position for this incremental inflation? Thanks.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, thanks Ghansham. Overall, I think we've seen inflation continue to increase really across the category. So I don't think it's really [Phonetic] to any one particular place. We've seen chemicals, adhesives, silicon and resin components continue to increase. And then I think in the third quarter as we had expected, we started to see some increase in paper, particularly in Europe. So I think we've seen the acceleration in the third quarter and into the fourth quarter here, really across the different component categories. I think the biggest regions where we're seeing the largest inflation is probably both in North America and Europe and North America really started late last year, as you recall, with some of the chemical increases and that's continued to grow as we moved through this year and then Europe continued shortly after that with paper really kicking in here in the third quarter and the biggest sequential increase.

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

And as far as pre-buys, on your question on that, We didn't see -- we don't really detect much pre-buys in the Q3 from Q4. We did accelerate and get a bit more benefit from pricing in the quarter purely because we just accelerated some actions there. As we look at within Q4, it's hard to get a good read on the fourth quarter just because of the price increases we've announced in some regions for November 1 which is causing some pre-buys here in October. But it doesn't have any inter-quarter movement, if you will, Ghansham. Thank you.

Ghansham Panjabi -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Got it, thanks so much.

Operator

Our next question is from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. -- Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Is there a way to think about the timeline for possibly rebalancing price cost in LGM based on the commodity inflation you're seeing and the pricing actions you've taken? And then just understanding the market is extremely dynamic and it's tough to say, is there anything that you could say about how your LGM market share position has maybe fared in the current environment?

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So on your first question, Anthony, I think when we look at a quarter ago, I think our communication to you was that we thought, by the end of the year, we'd be looking to close the price inflation gap essentially and we've continued to see accelerating inflation. So we're looking at somewhere kind of low-to-mid single-digit further inflation from Q3 to Q4. Now we're implementing additional pricing actions. So I think our view is that it takes us a few months -- three to four months to pass pricing or reengineer some materials to take cost out to manage the inflation. So when we start to see inflation stabilize, three or four months after that is probably when we expect to be able to cover that on an ongoing basis.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

And from your share question, so overall, markets are -- remain relatively strong in North America and Europe, and from a share perspective, pretty stable. We don't have share data yet, the most recent. We think it's relatively flat in some regions and up -- maybe up sequentially and other regions just stable. Specifically, North America we've call out in the past, we've seen some sequential improvement, we believe, but we're not quite where we want to be yet, but expect we will be there in the next couple of quarters.

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. -- Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then is it possible to specify either the financial or the volume impact of the North American labor issues that you referenced? Are those primarily with a group of customers or within Avery and do those kind of linger in 4Q? Are they better or worse exiting October versus what you saw in 3Q?

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

It's more about just the ability to meet surges in demand. And so the ability to flex when demand suddenly -- you see peaks temporarily and so forth, so it's primarily impacted our service lead times which are consistent with what we're seeing across the industry, our lead times being longer than they usually are, which is what the whole industry is seeing. That's what the driver is really. So it's not really a particular number. Yes, we've got a bigger backlog. We don't know how much of that is true end demand versus maybe inventory building or people getting in the queue just to make sure they've gotten allocation of future manufacturing. So overall, I think the key message here is, the markets remain -- we see growth in the end markets, particularly in North America and Europe. So the gains that we -- the market achieved last year when the pandemic first hit have been held, and then we're seeing incremental growth from there and, yeah, it's putting a bit of a strain on the lead times across the industry.

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. -- Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator

Our next question is from George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Please go ahead.

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. Hi, guys, good morning. Hope you're doing well, thanks for the details. First question I wanted to ask is around what you're doing to offset inflation. Good companies play to their strengths and advantages during periods of stress to gain position, to gain share. As you think about LGM versus RBIS, and you think about the broad buckets, reengineering and cost versus commercial and price versus -- I don't know, new products and innovation, how would you say that sort of mix varies in terms of how you're behaving in the market, LGM versus RBIS? I know LGM is heavy on the reformulation and pricing.

And then the second question related to it is, is there a horizon -- is there a practical limit where you really can't do any further reformulation or certainly the incremental benefit isn't what we've been seeing this year and in prior years, which should mean that you'd have to raise pricing further? And is there a practical limit in terms of how much more pricing you can get before you would worry about destroying demand? Thank you, guys.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. George. So your first question, which was talking about the relative levers within -- between RBIS and LGM, as an example, and first half Inflation is much larger in LGM. Our levers within that -- all of our businesses are, one, just a relentless focus on productivity as well as focusing on variable costs. So things like innovating, material reengineering and so forth [Technical Issues] restructuring. So touching on both of those, as you highlighted, the material reengineering is more to do within the materials businesses as you'd expect. You asked, are there limits to that? Within a given time period, yes, there are some limits to that. But over the long horizon, we continue to have a pretty consistent ability to deliver material cost-out, we call it, every single year and we've been doing that for decades. So I don't see a long-term limit to that, but definitely within a short cycle, there's some limits to what you can do there. [Indecipherable] then you move the pricing.

Within RBIS, they're having some inflation as well, not nearly the magnitude that we're seeing within materials and there we've been raising prices as well. It's a little bit of a different impact because every year there is a different program, just the way that industry works. And so you're constantly kind of repricing for new programs going from different designs of information and branding solutions for the apparel and retailers out there. And then last thing I'll say is just restructuring. That's been a consistent focus of ours in times where that are relatively common, and that's when you want to focus on the restructuring, as we've been doing over the years. We accelerated a lot of restructuring, as you know, in the last year. And so we're in a position of strength right now. When you're in a high volume environment, it's -- that's when you taper back a bit of your restructuring. So long term, that's something that's going to be a key lever for ours -- of ours across the portfolio, but clearly we accelerated some of our actions in the last year from what we have here on the near horizon.

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Mitch, thanks for that. Just on the pricing side, is there a point at which you'd start to worry about pressures such that your material is being replaced by something else in the market? I don't know what it would be. But nonetheless, you've had a lot of inflation, you've had to raise pricing. Does there come a point where your customers can't bear any further pricing? Thank you.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

You are welcome. No, the pricing in broad-based. It's not just industry-specific is my point. So regardless of what labeling solutions you're looking at, there is just inflation that is extremely broad-based and it's even outside, obviously, of packaging materials. So when you think about the costs of packaging, it's pretty small relative to overall pack -- overall cost of the packaged goods. So, I think generally what you're seeing, when you see what's going on in the macro around increasing inflation, labor constraints, it actually further heightens the need around information solutions labels, whether that be classic barcode labels or RFID and Intelligent Labels. And so we think it's just going to -- while there are inflationary pressures, it also further increases the business case for a lot of the solutions that we've been focusing on and investing in.

Operator

Our next question is from John McNulty with BMO. Please go ahead.

John McNulty -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Yeah, thanks for taking my question. On the Intelligent Label front, admittedly the 15% that you hit is kind of in your long-term range of 15% to 20% but admittedly, it's a bit lower than I think what we were expecting, just based on a bunch of channel checks throughout the industry. So I guess, anything constraining your ability to deliver in terms of the volumes throughout this quarter in the Intelligent Label side that we should be thinking about?

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Thanks, John. So -- I mean, each quarter, you're going to have movements up and down from within that range. Overall, if you look at year-to-date and then what we're looking at for the full year, we're looking at growth of 30% for the full year. And that's obviously with a little bit easier comps, roughly we had 10% last year. So you're looking at basically a compound annual growth of 18%, which is at the higher end of our range of our 15% to 20%. So we feel good with where we are now.

Specifically, your question on constraints, yes, we were constrained. The challenges in South Asia I referenced, we had Vietnam. So our Intelligent Labels, biggest portion of that, 75% is for Apparel, with the constraints, we saw in Vietnam, just as I mentioned for RBIS overall, impacted the Intelligent Labels businesses by a couple of points, as well as Malaysia in the middle of the quarter, it was just a couple of weeks, but Malaysia had a lot of lockdowns and that's where we have one of our RFID inlay manufacturing plants. So definitely bit of constraint, but overall we feel good with where we are and how we're trending and how the pipeline is developing.

John McNulty -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it. Now that's helpful color. And then I guess the other question would just be on the free cash flow front. I mean you already generated a huge amount so far at whatever it was, $632 million, I think it was. 4Q normally is a big windfall kind of quarter for you as well in terms of free cash, I guess. Should we be thinking about it differently, just given all the raw material inflation and things like that? Or is -- can 4Q kind of be the big anchorman that it normally is? How should we be thinking about that?

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think there's a couple of things. So one is, our capex, year-to-date is a bit lower than we would have expected coming into the year. For the full year, we're probably still around what our initial expectations would have been. But just given supply chain challenges and some things getting delayed from a equipment production perspective, billing perspective, things like that, we expect to have more capex here in Q4. And we normally do, but I think probably more relative to the first three quarters than what we normally would have. So that's one driver. So overall, I think our view is that we've got about $630 million, as you said, year-to-date. Our target is to deliver over $700 million. We're very confident in that. And it's still about $150 million more than last year, which was a record free cash flow year for us. So feel very good about the trajectory here and our ability to continue driving strong free cash flow.

John McNulty -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks very much for the color.

Operator

Our next question is from Josh Spector with UBS Securities. Please go ahead.

Josh Spector -- UBS -- Analyst

Yeah, hi guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just -- so in the third quarter, I mean, you guys did a really good job holding margins flat sequentially in spite of what you earlier called out as high-single-digit raws inflation quarter-to-quarter. Just curious, what was the biggest factor that helped you achieve that in the third quarter? And I think your guidance for fourth quarter reflects about a 50 basis points sequential margin decline. So what's different about what you think you can achieve here in the fourth quarter versus last quarter?

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think overall, as you said, part of what you see when you look at the segments is some improvements in RBIS, particularly sequentially, Q2 to Q3 and within the materials businesses where we saw a little bit more of the sequential inflation in the third quarter is where we saw a little bit of sequential decline, Q2 to Q3. So I think, overall, a big part of that overall flatness was really driven by the strengthening of RBIS from Q2 to Q3. So we look at Q3 to Q4, we expect to continue delivering strong margins in the RBIS segment. We did talk about having further sequential inflation that we're now working through passing prices through. So there'll be a little bit more of a gap in the fourth quarter than what we would have expected before as well.

Josh Spector -- UBS -- Analyst

Okay, thanks, that's helpful. And just on the RFID side, UPS specifically talked about more RFID adoption in their parcels. Just wondering if you could comment if that's a project, one, that you're involved with? And two, can you size that opportunity, if not specifically for UPS or the customer, but maybe the North America parcel market if adoption was taken up at the rate that UPS is discussing? And does this change any of your view about some of the medium term adoptions as I think you still talk about retail being the biggest opportunity for the next few years?

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, so we've got a number of [Technical Issues] I'm not going to comment on anything specific -- any specific program we're working through. But we are working with all of the major logistics players and a lot of it is specifically, as you normally see starting out, with targeted areas where the biggest challenge, the need for automation are. And so we've got a number of programs and that's part of the revenue growth being above the average from a very small base. That is related to those programs and logistics. And as far as adopting across the entire network, which -- we see a significant opportunity just when you think about the amount of automation required and trying to reduce costs, but also increase speed. We see that this technology, RFID, and our broader Intelligent Labels solutions as being a key enabler to helping companies achieve that. So, yeah, looking at the size of the market, we even shared some information in our March Investor Day. You can look at it, but simply if you just look at the number of parcels that are out there, so if you think about individual companies when they ultimately fully adopt, what the magnitude of that could be.

Josh Spector -- UBS -- Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Jeffrey Zekauskas -- J.P. Morgan Securities -- Analyst

Thanks very much. I think in your slides, you talk about $600 million of annualized inflation, but you also say that for the year, your annual inflation is about 10%. So if $600 million is 20%, then 10% is $300 million and $300 million would be offset by, I don't know, 4% across the board price increase. Are your prices up that much or are you in the hole by, I don't know, $50 million or $70 million in raw material cost this year? Can you size that?

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure, Jeff. So I think in general, directionally you're right. I think when we look at pricing, as I said, here in the third quarter, in LGM specifically and we're talking mostly LGM here when we're talking about that $600 million and 20% LGM and IHM, I should say, we had about 5 points of price in Q3. It is part of the LGM growth rate there. In the fourth quarter, we expect that to be a little bit higher year-over-year as we're -- been implementing prices in the third quarter and some new increases will take effect at some point in Q4. So yes, we still have a gap as we've talked about from a margin perspective overall between price and inflation. But certainly that pricing percentage continues to grow as we move through the [Technical Issues] here.

Jeffrey Zekauskas -- J.P. Morgan Securities -- Analyst

Okay. And so, propylene is already falling and probably polyethylene is going to be down, I don't know, a few cents a pound in October. Maybe it's going to go down $0.05 a pound for the next three or four months. So -- but what you said is you spot that your inflation would be not only higher in the fourth quarter, which I understand, but in the first quarter. Why would it be higher in the first quarter of '22 as a base case?

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And I'm talking sequentially. So I think, just we've seem things progress as we exited Q3 and entered Q4, so it'll create a little bit of incremental impact in the first quarter -- the front part of the first quarter, I guess.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Part of it, Jeff, is just the first month and a half, it stays in your inventory. And then it slowly bleeds through to the P&L. So it's just the delayed effect of when we actually get the inflation. I didn't think I'll say it, I know there's an outlook as far as what might be happening over the coming months. I think us and the entire industry kind of got that wrong a quarter ago where there was an expected abatement here in Q4 and we've been seeing incremental inflationary pressure. So we tend to just look out a few months and look to see what's there and what do we expect and try to evaluate capacity additions and what's going on in the macro to help shape up [Technical Issues] beyond that, but I think we're in a pretty uncertain environment. So we're not baking anything in or commenting on 2022 at large.

Jeffrey Zekauskas -- J.P. Morgan Securities -- Analyst

What raw materials are you short? What can't you get?

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I think it depends on the region and the specific business. I think it's been a challenge on certain chemicals that go into our films and our adhesives depending on the region. And it's not as if we haven't been able to get them for an extended period of time, but it does create some challenges within operations when you may have something that's delayed a week or a few days even, and then you end up having to run overtime or do something else to manage through this kind of situations. I think paper liners in Europe has been a challenge, more recently as well. So there's really nothing that's been long-standing one thing, I would say, over the course of the last few quarters. It's really been different areas that impacted us for short periods of time as we moved across the year here.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

And Just to add to that, Jeff, it's not just what can be outbound from our suppliers. There are lots of delays in the freight industry. So it's taking longer, things being held up across docking facility or something or it's just taking longer to get your materials and that alone can cause a delay and it might be delayed just by a day or two days or it might be a week and a half where you then need to shift the assets to other products and so forth as Greg was saying.

Jeffrey Zekauskas -- J.P. Morgan Securities -- Analyst

Okay, great, thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question is from Paretosh Misra with Berenberg Capital. Please go ahead.

Paretosh Misra -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great, thanks so much. So, I had a question on Slide 10, where you show the product mix within RBIS. How should we think of the mix within Vestcom relative to this pie chart? Is Vestcom -- will that be a totally new category or it has some overlap with your existing portfolio?

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we'll lay that out in the next earnings call. But overall, it's going to be a new category with both -- and the majority of it is in high-value categories and the rest of it will be a base.

Paretosh Misra -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Got it, got it. And then any other color you could provide on your RFID pipeline, where it stands versus the start of the year?

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

I think your question -- there was a little disruption. The RFID pipeline growth I think is what your question was. So yeah, we continue to see good momentum overall within the RFID pipeline. I'd say -- I think, I commented on this last quarter as well, our focus is more on moving things through the mouth of the funnel, if you will, more migrating them further down in the funnel. So great progress on what we're seeing there, a lot of whether you're looking at food and quick service restaurants, number of pilots being initiated, a number of pilots being moving to local or regional rollouts. So there is quite a bit of activity going on there and we commented on logistics earlier as well. So that's generally what's happening.

I guess, beyond that, it is just the move into -- within some of the -- if you think about a number of retailers that are multi-category retailers having discussions about moving out of the apparel department and into other departments within those larger retailers as well. So number of activities going on. Broadly, I'd say it's the food and logistics areas where we would see greatest growth similar to what we identified in the Investor Day in March about where the opportunity was and where our focus was.

Paretosh Misra -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thanks so much, guys.

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Chris Kapsch with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Christopher Kapsch -- Loop Capital Markets, LLC. -- Analyst

Yeah, hi, thank you for taking the question. So focused on LGM and the comments about organic growth by region specifically, just hoping for a little bit more color as to why Western Europe would be up more than 20% versus the low-double-digits in North American emerging markets. I don't think it has anything to do with the more pronounced inflation there. So I was just wondering if you could -- if there is some explanation for the divergence in the trends there. Thanks.

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Chris, I think some of that is just based on comps. So last year -- if you go back to last year, we were declining in Europe, particularly in the third quarter, after the surge we had seen in the second quarter from the pandemic. So most of that is just comps. When we look over a two year period, Europe is up about 10% from 2019 Q3 to 2021 Q3.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Which is still above the historical growth rate of that region. So it's still healthy markets, but definitely we've got some gyrations quarter-to-quarter.

Christopher Kapsch -- Loop Capital Markets, LLC. -- Analyst

Got it. And then you mentioned how some of the supply chain logistical challenges are restraining growth a little bit in RBIS. So has that been the case in any instances in different regions in LGM? Thank you.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, it's pretty much LGM North America is what [Technical Issues] most in LGM and then for RBIS, the constraint's just around like we talked about Vietnam and Malaysia and so forth that are COVID-related and it's not just us, obviously, it's the entire, might be, region of a country or the entire country. And then LGM Asia is also impacted. Freight is a challenge globally, it's a particular challenge in freight around Asia and just moving product between countries and so forth. So that's obviously a challenge in LGM as well in Asia.

Christopher Kapsch -- Loop Capital Markets, LLC. -- Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question is a follow-up question from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Hi guys. One is just a quick detailed question I had missed, you said something about $60 million related to Vestcom and just for posterity, what was that related to again? And then I had a question on capital allocation.

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, George. So that was specific to Vestcom. Purchase accounting amortization will be somewhere in the $55 million to $60 million range is what we expect for 2022. When we step back and look at kind of total depreciation and amortization, including kind of their ongoing depreciation, it's probably in the $70-ish million range for Vestcom next year overall.

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Thanks for that, Greg. And then my other question, could you remind us what you said in the past and if any of this has changed in terms of your appetite and ability to do M&A within the LGM sector? Again in periods of stress, the big companies usually gain capabilities, gain share; the smaller companies would tend to fall back. Are there any companies in the pipeline that would be helpful to you from a value-add simply because that's one of the components in terms of your capital allocation strategy and would be complementary to Avery? Would you have the willingness to do anything like that? And relative to some of the experiences, some of your peers had back in the early 2000s, would you have the ability to add anything in LGM? Thanks guys and good luck in the quarter.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, George. Yeah. So we continue to -- we have an M&A pipeline and we've talked about, we continue to engage and work with that with our partners in the industry. So that's something that we are definitely continuing to work through. And as far as specifically the LGM -- yeah, LGM and each of our divisions have a pipeline that we continue to work and we definitely have an appetite for areas there. We look at M&A as opportunities to accelerate our strategy so we're focused on M&A that -- disproportionate focus on high-value categories and give us new capabilities that, as you mentioned, can enhance the overall capability of the portfolio. So there is a number of angles we look here, but those are the two broad thrust, it's high value categories emphasis and bringing on new capabilities overall and obviously the financial one. So we're continuing to work it. We just spent $1.45 billion on Vestcom and we feel good with the early results of that and the outlook for that business and are confident we're going to achieve a good return there and then we're also looking to deploy our capital that we have going forward.

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

Mitch, would it be fair to say the high-value quotient would be more likely met in things that would be in the RBIS segment more broadly or is that an oversimplification and incorrect? Thanks. And again, I'll turn it over from here.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think what you're seeing is, it's more of -- it's more around moving higher end around information solutions and the brand management capabilities. And so we've got base materials both within LGM but also even RBIS has a base materials business, making the blank RFID inlays, and then there is working through the actual brand in information solutions. So I wouldn't say there is one business more than the other. Overall, the focus is around high-value categories, focusing around value-add material science product categories, as well as information branding solutions.

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

All right, thank you very much.

Operator

Mr. Butier, there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to you for any closing remarks.

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Well thank you everybody for joining. We had another strong performance in a very challenging period. And I just once again want to thank our entire team for their ongoing efforts to keep one another safe while continuing to deliver for our shareholders and obviously delivering for our customers. So thank you very much.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Duration: 47 minutes

Call participants:

John Eble -- Head of Investor Relations

Mitch Butier -- Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer

Greg Lovins -- Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Ghansham Panjabi -- Robert W. Baird & Co. -- Analyst

Anthony Pettinari -- Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. -- Analyst

George Staphos -- Bank of America Securities -- Analyst

John McNulty -- BMO Capital Markets -- Analyst

Josh Spector -- UBS -- Analyst

Jeffrey Zekauskas -- J.P. Morgan Securities -- Analyst

Paretosh Misra -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Christopher Kapsch -- Loop Capital Markets, LLC. -- Analyst

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