American Public Education (APEI) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

American Public Education (APEI 1.46%)
Q4 2021 Earnings Call
Mar 02, 2022, 5:00 p.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good evening. My name is Chris, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to the APEI fourth quarter and full-year 2021 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise.

After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] Thank you. Ryan Koren, AVP of investor relations. You may begin.

Ryan Koren -- Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to American Public Education's conference call to discuss fourth quarter and full-year 2021 financial and operating results. Joining me on the call today are Angela Selden, president and chief executive officer; Rick Sunderland, executive vice president and chief financial officer; and Steve Somers, senior vice president, and chief strategy and corporate development officer. Materials for the conference call today are available under the Events and Presentations section of the APEI website.

Please note that statements made during this conference call and any accompanying presentation materials regarding APEI and its subsidiaries that are not historical facts may be forward-looking statements based on current expectations, assumptions, estimates, and projections about APEI and the industry. In some cases, forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as anticipate, believe, seek, could, estimate, expect, can, may, plan, should, will, would, and similar words or their opposites. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding expected growth, registrations, and enrollments, revenue, net income, earnings per share and EBITDA, earnings guidance, expected benefits of the acquisition of Rasmussen University, future impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on enrollments as the pandemic abates, organizational changes, plans with respect to recent, current and future initiatives, and future demand or expectations for online enrollment and nursing education. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements.

These risks and uncertainties include, among others, risks related to actions taken by the Department of Defense or branches of the U.S. Armed Forces, including actions related to the disruption and suspension of the tuition assistance program, challenges with integrating acquisitions, regulatory matters, competitive pressures and those described in today's press release and in the company's Form 10-K filed with the SEC today and in other SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason unless required by law, even if new information becomes available or other events occur in the future. This presentation contains references to non-GAAP financial information that we use to measure our business.

A reconciliation between the non-GAAP financial measures we use and the most directly comparable GAAP measures are located in the appendix to our presentation and in our financial statements. Management believes that our presentation of non-GAAP financial information provides useful supplemental information to investors regarding our results of operations and should only be considered in addition to and not as a substitute for or superior to any measure of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. I will now turn the call over to our CEO, Angela Selden. Angie, please go ahead.

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ryan, and thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in American Public Education. 2021 was a highly transformative year for APEI as we accelerated and expanded our efforts in educating the service-minded. First, by successfully acquiring Rasmussen University, which roughly doubled the size of APEI in terms of revenue, APEI became the no. 1 educator of pre-licensure ADN and PN nurses in the United States and diversified its revenue to one-third nursing, one-third military and veterans, and one-third online education.

Next, we acquired Graduate School USA on January 1, 2022, and created APEI's platform for career and workforce training, further diversifying our revenue streams by educating the service-minded federal workforce. In addition to our inorganic growth activities, we have many accomplishments for which to be proud, including record enrollment growth at Hondros College of Nursing, a rebound in registration momentum at APUS with record military enrollments and year-over-year enrollment growth, and record nursing enrollment at Rasmussen, all while maintaining a strong commitment to regulatory and public company compliance across the enterprise. This includes the reaffirmation of accreditation by the Higher Learning Commission, or HLC, at Rasmussen in December 2020 and at APUS in August 2021, both of which have been awarded an open pathway designation, which affords institutions greater opportunity to pursue institutional improvement projects than the alternative standard pathway designation. Before we move to detailed financial results and enrollment momentum, I would like to take a moment to discuss APEI's distinctive position in America's economy and society, one that we believe is unique and puts APEI squarely at the center of America's greatest strength.

America has the best postsecondary education system on the planet, where students from all over the world flock to attend university here. APEI's institutions have achieved top-quality accreditations, attracting students attending our institutions from over 90 countries during 2021 alone. America has the world's strongest military, and APEI has the honor of being the no. 1 educator of active duty military and veterans.

America has the world's best healthcare systems and providers, and APEI now has the honor of educating the largest number of ADN and PN pre-licensure nurses in the United States. And finally, America has the most accessible and efficient capital markets in the world. APEI as a public company has successfully leveraged those capital markets and, in particular, in 2021 to strategically grow. We believe APEI is the only company at the intersection of America's greatest strength, postsecondary education, military, healthcare, and capital markets.

Our education of service-minded military and veteran students provides steady enrollment and increasing market share. Our national nursing platform is a growth engine squarely positioned to help mitigate the chronic nursing shortage and our over 350 programs and certificates at APUS, Rasmussen, Hondros, and GS USA provide accessible, affordable, high-quality education and ongoing professional development to students at any stage of their career journey. It's no better time to invest in the future of America by investing in APEI. During today's call, I will be providing more detail on the enrollment momentum at APUS, Rasmussen, and Hondros before turning the call over to Rick to review key financial metrics and the results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2021.

Slide 4 is a brief reminder of the educational offerings at APEI. APEI's origins began at APUS, purpose-built to enable active-duty military to uniquely access their earned education benefit through inclusive, adaptable education. This inspired our vision of educating service-minded students, and we did so with the goal of keeping college education affordable. APEI's acquisition of Hondros College of Nursing in 2013 was a springboard into nursing education, another service-minded career in a high-demand field.

With the acquisition of Rasmussen University, APEI created the largest ADN and PN pre-licensure nursing platform in the United States, creating new nurses to help meet society's chronic nursing shortage. And with the addition of Graduate School USA and its focus on training the federal workforce, its purpose is tightly aligned with educating the service-minded students and represents a strong adjacency to APUS' core military and veteran student offerings. On Slide 5, you'll see an overview of APEI's national nursing platform and our market opportunities in the face of this chronic nursing shortage. Through Rasmussen and Hondros, APEI serves as the largest ADN and PN pre-licensure nursing educator in the United States, creating new nurses at its 30 campuses.

The Bureau of Labor and Statistics recently published its updated annual job projections and registered nurses, licensed practical nurses and vocational nurses are expected to increase 9% to over $4.1 million by 2030, larger than the national average across all jobs. Over the next 10 years, each year, there are expected to be approximately 195,000 registered nurse openings and another 61,000 licensed practical and vocational nurse openings. 2021 NCLEX numbers suggest that only 72% of the annual licensed practical nurse job demand can be met to present practical nurse graduates. A 2021 American Association of Critical Care Nurse survey of more than 6,500 nurses shows that 92% believe the pandemic has depleted nurses at their hospitals over the past 18 months.

And as a result, their careers will be shorter than they intended, and 66% felt their experiences during the pandemic have caused them to consider leaving nursing. The BLS has indicated that overall resignations in healthcare are up 50% since the start of the pandemic. And currently, 43% of the nursing population is over the age of 55. And it is expected that of those eligible to retire within the next three years, more than 50% will do so.

These staffing shortages are not sustainable as costs continue to soar for the healthcare providers due to their need to use temporary labor and overtime to fill these shortages, causing healthcare system margins to decline substantially. And ultimately, it is the patient who suffers. At Rasmussen and Hondros, we are partnering with over 300 clinical partners to help these healthcare systems alleviate this chronic nursing shortage. Across our three education units of Rasmussen, APUS and Hondros, we expanded our nursing curriculum ladder with Rasmussen's launch of a nurse practitioner program at the end of 2021.

Notably, what remains attractive about our pre-licensure education is that we enable LPN to begin working in approximately 12 months, direct-entry RN students complete within 15 months, and our RN students begin working in just over two years. The vast majority of our nursing students are currently pre-licensure, yet we continue to believe the nursing sector needs post-licensure education and, in particular, to educate new nursing faculty. Overall, we believe strongly that the accreditation standards, requirements of state boards of nursing approvals, the significant amount of clinical and other partner relationships needed, and the general process of standing up a nursing school provide a substantial barrier to entry for new competition and is a significant reason we remain enthusiastic about nursing education. Turning to Slide 6, nursing enrollment reached record levels at both Rasmussen and Hondros in 4Q '21.

In total, APEI has a total nursing enrollment of over 11,200 students that are predominantly pre-licensure. Rasmussen's nursing enrollments continue to grow, up 8% in 4Q '21 as compared to the prior-year period. Nursing enrollment now represents over 50% of the total enrollment at Rasmussen compared with less than 30% just a few years ago, and we expect this trend to continue. At Hondros, we now have over 2,500 nursing students, which represents 17% growth in 4Q '21 versus the prior-year period.

We have positive news from Hondros Indianapolis campus, which originally opened in 2020. Just a few weeks ago, based on favorable NCLEX results and overall student outcomes, the Indiana State Board of Nursing granted Hondros an increase to 200 enrolled students for 2022, up from 60. This significant increase was made possible by the Hondros team's commitment to high-quality education and focus on maintaining top-tier regulatory and state board standards, where we currently have 100% NCLEX pass rates. Additionally, in the fall of '22, we anticipate welcoming our first nursing student cohort in Hondros' new Detroit, Michigan campus.

Even though nursing growth remains positive and we continue to see heightened interest in our nursing program, the recent impact of COVID and the Omicron variants have dampened some students' ability to begin or continue their nursing education. For example, in Ohio, in Q1 of '22, over 120 of our new predominantly female and single-parent students had to defer education from the impact of COVID, including public school bus system shutdowns, forcing our students to remain home to educate their children. We anticipate this impact will be temporary as COVID restrictions subside and the high-interest levels in the program should translate to strong enrollments. In Q1 '22, we anticipate total nursing enrollment to increase by roughly 4% compared to the same period of 2021.

Notably, positive growth is against deep comparable periods in 2021 when the programs are exhibiting very strong growth, 22% at Rasmussen and 45% at Hondros. The two-year CAGR for Rasmussen nursing is 12%, generating 8,400 current student enrollments and the two-year CAGR for Hondros nursing is 25%, leading to 2,460 enrollments. Moving to Slide 7, at APUS, while total net registrations were down 2% to 86,600 in 4Q '21, this does not reflect the positive two-year enrollment momentum of 4% and, in particular, in 4Q '21, where APUS faced a very difficult prior-year comp of 11% positive in 4Q of '20. This is also a marked improvement versus the previous two quarters.

There are several green shoots at APUS. First, we are experiencing a return of Army enrollment momentum. Army registrations were up approximately 4% during 4Q '21 compared to a tough comp of 29% positive in the same period of 2020 and represent a 16% two-year CAGR. Due to our improved focus on student persistence and completion that started in Q3 of '21, we are experiencing returning military student acceleration across every degree type and, notably, year-over-year quarterly growth in our three largest branches, Army, Navy, and Marines.

We are encouraged that the ArmyIgnitED portal impact on soldier registrations has subsided and a soldier's ability to register through the system has improved with over 70% utilization of the new IgnitEd tools and processes by Army soldiers in the most recent start. We believe APUS is increasing its market share as other universities have suspended the use of the exception to protocol, or ETP, due primarily to delays in Army reimbursements, while APUS has been willing to accommodate those students. While enrollment challenges have abated, the receivable from Army has not meaningfully decreased due to the Army's significant backlog of payments to process. However, as a result of productive conversations we have had with Army leadership and recent system enhancements, we have seen reimbursements beginning to flow and steps outlined to resolve the payment backlogs.

We have been pleased to have the opportunity to proactively collaborate on data reconciliation with the Army and are satisfied that the data is consistent between the two systems. Therefore, we strongly believe the remaining receivable balances and payments are now primarily a timing issue. Also, as we previously mentioned, military students continue to provide a strong, recurring foundation of registrations that is more insulated from the broader higher education enrollment trends for adult learners in a tight labor market. Moving on to our other APUS student segments, while returning veteran registrations declined, bright spots with veterans include new student growth in associates degrees and master's degrees.

The softness in nonmilitary registrations is offset by green shoots of student growth in associates degrees and certificates yet reflects the overall weak market enrollment trends, which drove the roughly 2% decline in total nonmilitary registrations. The implementation of our modernized CRM platform has simplified enrollment and is increasing the lead to conversion rates in Q1 of 2022. At Rasmussen, approximately 50% of enrollments and 60% of revenue come from nursing. So as we turn to nonnursing, for several years, Rasmussen has invested behind the acceleration of nursing and has directed the corresponding prioritization of marketing investments toward that segment, resulting in a 4Q '21 decline of 13% in nonnursing enrollments.

Rasmussen's legacy Northern region, which includes Minnesota and Wisconsin, are experiencing historically low unemployment rates at 2.7% and 2.8%, respectively, and the labor participation rate in those states is also declining. The severe labor shortage generally has driven wages higher and resulted in an overall tight labor market, which has dampened the urgency for prospective students to consider career changes or additional education to qualify for work advancement. Despite the nonnursing softness, Rasmussen does have some green shoots, starting with strong improvements in retention with the winter term increasing to 85.6% overall, and graduate education programs offered below $10,000 have seen significant acceleration. We don't expect the labor market tightness to change in the near term, and it will continue to weigh on our nonnursing nonmilitary registrations.

Nonetheless, we still expect registrations in the first quarter at APUS to increase 0% to 3% to between 92,900 and 95,700, reflecting continued military improvement. At Rasmussen, we anticipate nonnursing enrollment to decrease roughly 14% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the prior-year period due to the general student behavioral trends in the U.S. At APUS, nonmilitary students only represent about 15% of our student population. While at Rasmussen, the nonnursing and nonhealthcare population represent 30% of enrollment but roughly only 24% of revenue.

I would now like to turn the call over to Rick to review our fourth quarter and full year results in further detail.

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Angie. On Slide 9, we present our financial highlights for the quarter and full-year periods. Total revenue for the fourth quarter was $154 million, up approximately $68 million from the comparable prior year period due to the addition of Rasmussen results in the 2021 period. The fourth quarter was the first, which included a full three months of Rasmussen results.

APUS' fourth-quarter revenue was $73 million, a decrease of 3% from fourth quarter 2020 as a result of the decrease in overall net course registrations Angie discussed earlier. As a reminder, Army-specific registrations were up for the fourth quarter of 2021 versus the prior-year period as were total active-duty military registrations. Hondros revenue increased by 18% to $12 million in the fourth quarter of 2021 versus the comparable prior-year period, driven by strong year-over-year enrollment growth due to the ongoing demand for nursing education, successful marketing efforts, and the execution of enrollment strategies at Hondros. For the year 2021, total revenue increased 30% compared to 2020 due primarily to the addition of Rasmussen in the 2021 period and the revenue growth at Hondros.

Total cost and expenses for the quarter were $138 million, an increase of $61 million from the prior-year period due primarily to the inclusion of Rasmussen's results in the current year quarter. Expenses for the quarter include approximately $1.7 million of noncash stock compensation expense, $1.8 million of professional fees and integration costs primarily related to the integration of Rasmussen and the acquisition of Graduate School, and $8.3 million of depreciation and amortization, all on a pre-tax basis. As part of the integration of Rasmussen and our efforts to continuously evaluate and review our cost structure more broadly, there were two headcount reductions completed over the past several months. First, and as previously discussed, we completed a reduction in force at APEI and APUS in August 2021 that resulted in a benefit of approximately $1.4 million in pre-tax labor and benefit savings in 2021 and, more importantly, is expected to result in savings in the range of approximately $2.6 million to $3.6 million in 2022.

Additionally, in mid-January, Rasmussen completed a similar cost reduction effort that we estimate will result in pre-tax labor and benefit savings in the range of $2.5 million to $3.5 million during 2022. These figures do not include the severance costs associated with these actions. On a full-year basis, total cost and expenses were $388 million for 2021, an increase of $91 million as compared to 2020, which is attributable to the inclusion of Rasmussen in the current year period. These results include full-year stock-based compensation of $7.7 million, $7.6 million of professional fees and integration costs primarily related to the Rasmussen and Graduate School acquisitions, and $17.8 million of depreciation and amortization, all on a pre-tax basis.

Overall, APEI achieved adjusted EBITDA of $29.3 million in the current year quarter and $64.7 million for the full 2021 year. Net income per diluted share for the quarter was $0.50 and $0.97 for the full 2021 year. Net cash provided by operating activities was $16.3 million for the full year 2021 compared to $44.8 million in 2020. The decrease is primarily due to the timing of the Rasmussen acquisition as Rasmussen received the majority of its cash receipts at the start of a quarterly term during the first month of each fiscal quarter while disbursements occur throughout the quarter.

As the seller retains substantially all of the cash at closing, the majority of Rasmus's operations were therefore funded by APEI from September 1 through the middle of October when Rasmussen received its temporary provisional program participation agreement, or TPPPA, from ED that allowed Rasmussen to continue drawing Title IV funds. Cash provided by operating activities was also impacted by changes in working capital due to the timing of receipts and payments, particularly as it relates to the Army's transition to ArmyIgnitED, which has adversely impacted APUS' ability to invoice the Army, and higher estimated tax payments in 2021 compared to the prior year. On December 31, accounts receivable from the Army was approximately $27 million, of which $18.2 million is older than 60 days from the course start date. Cash on December 31, 2021, was $150 million, of which approximately $27 million is restricted.

As previously mentioned on the third quarter 2021 earnings call, restricted cash is almost entirely comprised of a restricted certificate of deposit securing a letter of credit. Rasmussen University is required to post to ED as a result of its 2020 composite score. Additionally, our $20 million revolving credit facility remains undrawn at this time. Turning to Slide 10, first quarter 2022 outlook.

APEI's outlook for the first quarter of 2022 is as follows. APUS net course registrations are expected to be flat to up 3% year over year. This reflects the rebound from Army registrations, offset by the impact on the near-term demand of COVID-19 and broader enrollment factors impacting the higher education industry. At APUS, we continue to work on reestablishing registration momentum.

At Hondros and Rasmussen, first-quarter student enrollment is actually because of the quarterly starts at these schools. At Hondros, first-quarter total student enrollment increased by 8% year over year to approximately 2,500 students. At Rasmussen, nursing student enrollment increased 2% year over year, offset by nonnursing enrollment declines of 14% for an aggregate Rasmussen enrollment decline of approximately 7% year over year. In the first quarter of 2022, consolidated revenue is expected to increase between 75% to 80% year over year was given the addition of Rasmussen.

The company expects net income to be between $2.3 million and $3.3 million and earnings per diluted share to be between $0.12 and $0.17. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $17.7 million and $19.8 million for the first quarter of 2022. Included in the EPS guidance is approximately a $1 million loss or approximately $0.06 per diluted share at Graduate School related to integration costs. One additional point to note is the impact on cash taxes of the deductibility of goodwill associated with both the Hondros and Rasmussen acquisitions, as well as the impact of accelerated depreciation for tax purposes.

As of December 31, APEI had net operating loss carryforwards and capital loss carryforwards of approximately $16 million and $2 million, respectively, which are available to offset future taxable income. The company's utilization of net operating loss carryforwards may be subject to annual limitations due to ownership change provisions of Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code. With that, I would like to turn the call back to Angie for final remarks.

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Rick. As I stated at the beginning of our call, we believe APEI is the only company at the intersection of America's greatest strength, that of postsecondary education, military, healthcare, and capital markets. From our education of service-minded military and veteran students to our national nursing platform to our over 350 programs and certificates at APUS, Rasmussen, Hondros, and Graduate School USA, there is no better time to invest in the future of America by investing in American Public Education. With that, I'd like to open up the line for questions.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] The first question is from Tobey Sommer with Truist Securities.Your line is open.

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

Hey, good afternoon. This is actually Jasper Bibb on for Tobey. I wanted to ask about the expense guide for the first quarter. It looks like EBITDA margin is down maybe 600 basis points from last year.

Can you just comment on what's driving the higher expense base to start the year?

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. This is Rick. Really two things. Number one, labor costs related to the nursing programs and, I'll say, productivity at the campuses.

When we went through COVID, we were able to move several or many of the nursing programs to a blended online model. And now that they've returned back to campus, it results in a higher cost structure. You combine that with the demand for nursing faculty and really the shortage, which is driving up labor costs. So it's really those two elements that are driving a lower margin in our campus-based operations.

I would also point out that there is some seasonality in the business. If you look back over the trailing 8 or 12 quarters, the first quarter thus tends to be lower than other quarters during the year.

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

OK. And I know you're not giving full-year guidance at this point, but the labor cost and the back-to-school cost, I imagine, would be fairly sticky. So do you think you could still expand EBITDA margin on a year-over-year basis this year? Or how should we think about the cadence of margins over the next couple of quarters?

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Well, as an example, we talked about the reduction in force that took place at Rasmussen, which was right at the beginning of the first quarter. And then the benefit we would expect to receive from that over the course of the year. So we do have levers that we can pull that would manage the margins, and we would expect to improve those margins over time. Also given the fixed cost model in the campus-based operations and looking at the seasonality of the revenue, which you can look back and see, you would expect margin expansion on top of revenue improvement during those subsequent periods.

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

OK, makes sense. And then just wanted to follow up on your comment in the prepared remarks about more marketing dollars being allocated to the nursing segment of Rasmussen versus nonnursing. I was just hoping you could comment on what do the marketing yields look like for each side of the business that might be informing that choice.

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Jasper. This is Angie. It's nice to speak with you. Certainly, the unit economics of a nursing student and a very specific curriculum that they follow do yield in a shorter time period more revenue per investment or what we would call LTV over CAC.

And so the attractive unit economics of a nursing student drove and continues to drive the prioritization of marketing dollars for new leads toward finding that next nursing student.

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

OK, makes sense. And then as you look at your plan for this year, could you just speak to me if you have any new campus openings in the pipeline? And if that is the case, what would be the approximate timing of that?

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure, you bet. So as I mentioned in my remarks, we're very pleased that Hondros will be opening a new campus in Detroit, Michigan. And I'll turn it to Rick for how we want to think about the unit economics.

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sure. So the campuses ramp fairly quickly. We're placing them in markets where there's a good demand for those campuses. So we would expect the campus to breakeven kind in the second to third year.

We were challenged in the Indianapolis market because of the initial enrollment cap. And so I was going to add to Angie's comments about the opening of the Michigan campus by pointing out that the Indiana Board of Nursing recently increased the enrollment cap at the Indianapolis campus to 200 students from, I think the remark said, 60. And that 60 was just a recent increase from the original 30. So absent an enrollment cap, which I don't think we're anticipating in the Michigan market, those campuses ramp fairly rapidly.

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

We also are contemplating relocations of campuses as well. One example is another Hondros campus in the Dayton market, where we have found a more attractive space with a larger footprint. And we believe that that relocation, which will happen in 2022, will also yield enrollment momentum in the Dayton market.

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

OK. Last one for me, could you just remind us how overseas troop movements or NATO exercises have impacted APUS in the past? And is that dynamic, given some of the headlines we're seeing, something that you've seen at all in the first quarter or not?

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

So troop deployments do impact enrollments at APUS. But given our view of what's going on in Eastern Europe, which is obviously a horrible situation, our thoughts are with our soldiers and our student soldiers there. We're not seeing a very large impact at this time. We've had some soldiers inquire about delaying their education.

But at this point, it's not large.

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

All right. Thanks for taking the questions. I'll take the rest offline.

Operator

The next question is from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. Your line is open.

Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

Hey, thanks. First, I guess, what are you including -- if you thought about the first-quarter guidance, I guess, what are you including for Graduate School USA. for revenue and adjusted EBITDA? And is there any notable seasonality at that institution as we kind of layer that into our models for the full year?

Steve Somers -- Senior Vice President, and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer

Yes. Hey, Stephen. It's Steve. For graduate school, there's a high degree of seasonality overall in the business, two-thirds of the revenues come in the second and third quarters.

The first quarter and the fourth quarter fall on the 15%, 20% range, generally speaking. And so we're looking at sort of low single-digit million dollars of revenue in the first quarter.

Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

Got it. And is that -- I think you talked about $1 million impacts from integration costs. I guess anything -- for overall adjusted EBIT, I guess, how should we think about the impact of Graduate School USA on the first-quarter guidance?

Steve Somers -- Senior Vice President, and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer

Yes. In terms of overall adjusted EBITDA, it has an impact of -- it's a negative between $0.5 million and $1 million.

Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

OK, great. And then I saw that you announced the hire of a new chief experience officer earlier this year. I'm just curious if this represents any notable changes in how you plan to provide student support or your broader digital strategy to engage. And I know you talked about some marketing shifts to focusing on Rasmussen or at least to focus more on nursing.

But I guess how -- any context for that would be great.

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Great question, Stephen. Thank you very much for asking. What we really believe is that we will elevate the student experience as a result of bringing Jeff Tognola in to lead that effort. We have in the past really focused our efforts on students in different process areas of our organization.

And what we're trying to do is really create -- start with the student, but the student at the center of everything that we do. And from the first touchpoint, from a lead all the way through career placement and ongoing alumni relations, it's our intention to create a smooth, seamless, cohesive experience under Jeff's leadership. So many of the shared service functions that came over with the Rasmussen acquisition now are part of our experience office that Jeff leads, and that includes our career services department. It also includes those functions that existed at APEI prior, which are our key marketing areas.

It's also where we have a student technology innovation house so that that whole team can be focused day in and day out on the elevation of the way in which the students experience our brand and make sure that regardless of which education unit they engage with, they can expect to get a high-quality student-centric experience. So we couldn't be more excited about Jeff and the team that he's building to take all of our education units' student experience to the next level.

Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

Good to hear. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is from Raj Sharma with B. Riley. Your line is open.

Raj Sharma -- B. Riley Financial -- Analyst

Hello, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to understand the Army enrollment because of the portal issue relative -- where are we today relative to pre-IgnitED issues on the enrollment level? Have we surpassed that level? So apples-to-apples, what are the enrollments for the Army?

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Raj. It's Rick Sunderland. Yes, we've actually -- we're up year over year, and so we've surpassed the levels that we had under the prior system, GoArmyEd. And as Angie mentioned in her comments, we actually think we're perhaps picking up market share at this point as other smaller education providers have really been unable to work with and through the system the way we've been able to do it.

We recently -- we've had periodic meetings with the folks at Army. It's been really helpful for us to understand the system and for them to understand the challenges. A recent example, we have a communication strategy that we've used with our Army soldier students in a very sort of special situation. The Army is actually leveraging our communication strategy more broadly to soldiers because we like to think and we're very proud of exhibiting kind of best practices broadly as it relates to military education for sure, but specifically, as it relates to our ArmyIgnitED.

Raj Sharma -- B. Riley Financial -- Analyst

Got it. Great. And then on Rasmussen, I just want to understand your -- I understand that the nonnursing economics are worse than the nursing economics is. Was this reallocation of marketing dollars a reactive decision or a proactive decision? I just wanted to understand the business, how it's trending also relative to when you acquired it, and what your expectations were?

Steve Somers -- Senior Vice President, and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer

Hey, Raj. It's Steve. I'll start on that. The trend toward investing in nursing has been a multiyear trend for Rasmussen that started a few years before we acquired it and has continued, right? The mix shift in terms of -- and I'll speak kind of on an enrollment basis, but it's comparable on the revenue side is -- just a few years ago, 2017, right, the enrollment for the nursing business was less than 30%.

Today, it's now just a touch over 50%. And so we've continued to see that trend, and we expect that will continue to be the case over time as Rasmussen, as an institution, focuses on nursing and, to a lesser degree, the health sciences side. And so between nursing and health sciences, the overall enrollment and revenue composition are between 70% and 75%. We think that the mix will continue.

So we have been proactive on a longer-term basis in allocating marketing dollars toward the nursing practice area.

Raj Sharma -- B. Riley Financial -- Analyst

Got it. That's it for me. Thank you. I'll take it offline.

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call over to Angie Selden for any closing remarks.

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in American Public Education. Have a great evening.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 46 minutes

Call participants:

Ryan Koren -- Assistant Vice President, Investor Relations

Angie Selden -- Chief Executive Officer

Rick Sunderland -- Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Jasper Bibb -- Truist Securities

Stephen Sheldon -- William Blair -- Analyst

Steve Somers -- Senior Vice President, and Chief Strategy and Corporate Development Officer

Raj Sharma -- B. Riley Financial -- Analyst

More APEI analysis

All earnings call transcripts