Skechers (SKX) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Skechers (SKX -0.82%)
Q1 2022 Earnings Call
Apr 26, 2022, 4:30 p.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to Skechers' first-quarter 2022 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

I would now like to turn this conference over to your host, Skechers Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Unknown speaker

Thank you, everyone, for joining us on Skechers' conference call today. I will now read the safe harbor statement. Certain statements contained herein, including, without limitation, statements addressing the beliefs, plans, objectives, estimates, or expectations of the company or future results or events, may constitute forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Specifically, the COVID-19 pandemic has had and is currently having a significant impact on the company's business, financial conditions, cash flow, and results of operations.

Such forward-looking statements with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic include, without limitation, the company's plans in response to this pandemic. At this time, there is significant uncertainty about the duration and extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The dynamic nature of these circumstances means that what is said on this call could change at any time. And as a result, actual results could differ materially from those contemplated by such forward-looking statements.

Additional forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, including, but not limited to, global, national, and local economic business and market conditions in general and specifically as they apply to the retail industry and the company. There can be no assurance that the actual future results, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by any of our forward-looking statements will occur. Users of forward-looking statements are encouraged to review the company's filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, including the most recent annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, current reports on Form 8-K, and all other reports filed with the SEC as required by federal securities laws for a description of all other significant risk factors that may affect the company's business, financial conditions, cash flows and results of operations.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Skechers' chief operating officer, David Weinberg; and chief financial officer, John Vandemore. David?

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

Welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2022 conference call. Before we discuss our record quarterly results, I would like to acknowledge the devastating humanitarian crisis in Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine. Together with our employees and partners, we have donated close to $0.5 million to organizations working to provide relief on the ground to the innocent victims impacted. As always, our first concern is the well-being of the Skechers team and the well-being of those impacted by this conflict.

This year marks Skechers' 30th anniversary, and we are off to an excellent start in 2022 with a new quarterly sales record of over $1.8 billion. We are proud of the accomplishments and milestones we've achieved and couldn't be more excited about what the future holds. Our product offering and the enthusiasm for the Skechers brand have never been stronger. This is clear in the Skechers stores from London to Los Angeles and Munich to Mumbai and in displays in shops-in-shop at retailers around the world.

It is also apparent in our marketing campaigns, whether it's alongside major events, like commercials with Willie Nelson surrounding the Super Bowl, or being the official footwear sponsor at this month's U.S. OPEN Pickleball Championships and the LPGA's LA Open here in Los Angeles or on screens in home, on phones in the mall and city streets. Skechers is truly everywhere. And as consumers continue to embrace comfort along with an active lifestyle, we remain a leading choice as a comfort technology company.

Now let me turn to our first-quarter results, which include the updates to our reporting structure that we announced two weeks ago. We believe this approach best reflects how we manage and lead our business and will improve transparency in our operational results. More information regarding these changes can be found on our investor website. The first-quarter sales record is a remarkable achievement, given the ongoing pandemic-related challenges we continue to face, including worldwide store closures and supply chain disruptions.

Sales grew nearly 27% overall, well balanced between domestic growth of 29% and international growth of 26%. We believe the significant growth was due to the broad-based demand for our innovative comfort products from consumers globally, supported by our impactful multimedia marketing, worldwide team, and enhanced infrastructure. Our total international business now comprises 57% of our sales, reflective of our strong brand awareness worldwide. In the quarter, our wholesale business increased 33%, led by growth in the Americas and EMEA, both of which grew over 40% in the quarter.

Overall wholesale sales were driven by a 23% increase in units shipped and an 8.6% increase in average price per unit. Of particular note in the quarter, our U.S. wholesale performance increased markedly due to double-digit improvements across genders and most categories, reflecting strong consumer demand and sell-through at retail, as well as improved availability of products and our ability to receive and process additional inventory. For EMEA, the growth was the result of increases across all of Europe.

Asia Pacific wholesale sales in the quarter were essentially flat year over year due to the weakness in the region where COVID continued to negatively impact our ability to operate. China grew over 9%, though lower than our long-term targets, a notable achievement given the constraints in the quarter. We expect continued market challenges in APAC throughout the second quarter as governments contend with the impacts of the pandemic. We are confident in the return to historical growth patterns and the long-term growth prospects for the Skechers brand in this region.

We invested significantly in increased personnel and worked diligently to process in-transit inventory to our wholesale partners to ensure consumers get the product they want. We value our relationship with our diverse network of retail partners who have worked alongside us as they recognize the strength and reliability of Skechers. Turning to our direct-to-consumer business, sales increased 16% in the quarter, led by results in EMEA where sales increased over 150%, primarily reflecting last year's COVID-related store closures and operating restrictions. However, consumer demand for Skechers remains robust across all regions, including the Americas and APAC, which grew by 11% and 8.5%, respectively.

We saw double-digit growth in both our physical stores and our e-commerce business, primarily as a result of a 15% improvement in average price per unit from increased demand for our more innovative comfort technology offerings and fewer promotions. In the first quarter, we opened 31 company-owned Skechers stores, including 13 in the United States and 7 in China. We closed 41 locations in the quarter, including 12 in the United States and 7 in China. Including our 2,958 third-party stores, 77 of which opened in the first quarter, including our first location in Bolivia, there were 4,308 Skechers stores worldwide at the end of the period.

In the second quarter, we have opened 10 company-owned stores to date. And by year-end, we plan to open an additional 160 to 180 locations. Our investments remain focused on supporting our strategic priorities, growing our direct-to-consumer business, expanding the presence of our brand, and meeting the needs of our consumers globally. The rollout of our new e-commerce platform continued in the first quarter with the launch of new sites in France and Spain.

And already in this quarter, we have launched new sites in the Netherlands and Italy and plan to launch others across Europe, Asia, and South America this year. We also continue to invest in our retail capabilities in the quarter by upgrading our POS systems in Japan and Belgium with the rest of Europe to be completed by the end of the third quarter. These investments further our progress as an omnichannel retailer. We have improved the flow of goods through our North American distribution center and expect to be operational on our LEED-certified gold expansion in the third quarter of 2022.

We have also finalized the location for our new distribution center in India, which we expect to be opened in 2023, and have recently secured locations for distribution centers in Canada and Chile. We are also planning to open a new distribution center in Panama and expand our distribution facilities in Peru this year, Colombia next year, and China in 2024. Investments in product and marketing continue to result in strong global demand for our comfortable and innovative product. We introduced several new comfort technology collections in the quarter that enhanced our fit and function offerings.

We also introduced two new ambassadors, Willie Nelson and Martha Stewart, and launched campaigns with Cris Carter, Rusty Wallace, and Amanda Kloots. This quarter, we announced a global agreement with pro golfer Matt Fitzpatrick and pro pickleball players Tyson McGuffin and Catherine Parenteau who are playing in Skechers pickleball footwear. This growing roster of well-known talent and athletes allows us to appeal to an everwidening consumer base. And now I would like to turn the call over to John for more details on our financial results.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, David, and good afternoon, everyone. Skechers once again delivered record first-quarter results, exceeding internal and external expectations. The strength of our comfort technology product portfolio, coupled with capabilities derived from the investments we have made in our infrastructure, fueled solid consumer demand and global growth. This is despite the ongoing COVID-related operating restrictions and shutdowns, supply chain disruptions, and other macroeconomic headwinds we faced.

Before discussing our financial results this quarter, I first want to touch on our new segment reporting structure. As David mentioned, we recently unveiled new segment reporting that reflects how we run and assess the performance of our business, as well as make decisions to support our growth strategies. Commencing with the first quarter of this year, we are reporting segment results for wholesale and direct-to-consumer operations, including our joint venture entities. In addition, we are introducing enhanced geographic sales reporting, including regional reporting and domestic and international reporting that we believe will provide improved visibility and greater transparency into the performance of our brand.

Historical results for both 2020 and 2021 recast in this format are available on our Investor Relations web page. Now let's turn to the details of our first-quarter financial results and updated operating segment performance. Sales in the quarter increased 27% to a new quarterly record of $1.82 billion, an increase of $385.1 million from the prior year. On a constant-currency basis, sales increased 29% or $412.2 million.

Wholesale sales increased 33% year over year to $1.25 billion, led by 43% growth domestically and 26% growth internationally. We saw significant improvements in the pace of receipts and as a result, shipments to our domestic wholesale accounts in addition to strong sell-through and higher average selling prices. Direct-to-consumer sales increased 16% year over year to $568.3 million, supported by growth in domestic and international markets of 5% and 25%, respectively. Several markets saw significant traffic improvement as compared to last year's COVID closures and e-commerce remains a critical component of our overall direct-to-consumer strategy, delivering mid-teens growth globally.

We continue to expand our online presence and further invest in our digital and omnichannel capabilities. And now turning to our regional sales. In the Americas, sales for the first quarter increased 31% or $221.3 million year over year to $946.9 million. Strong brand resonance and a significant improvement in the pace of our inbound receipts and outbound shipments to wholesale customers drove the results, particularly in the United States, which accounted for over three-quarters of the growth.

In Europe, Middle East, and Africa, or EMEA, sales increased 49% or $145.7 million year over year to $441.2 million as we continue to see recovery in many markets that were heavily impacted by the pandemic last year. We are deeply concerned with the devastating war and humanitarian crisis in the region. As many of you know, we operate through long-standing distributor relationships in both Russia and Ukraine, and sales to both countries, which represented less than 1% of sales in 2021, remain suspended. We continue to monitor events in EMEA closely but have yet to see a material change in consumer discretionary spending patterns in the region.

In Asia Pacific or APAC, sales increased 4% or $18.1 million year over year to $431.5 million, led by 9% growth in China, partially offset by COVID-induced weakness in several adjacent markets. The Skechers brand and our products continue to resonate well in China where growth was driven by strong e-commerce performance in January and February. However, beginning in March and continuing into April, slower retail traffic patterns and operational limitations have emerged as China continues to feel the negative effects of the COVID pandemic. We remain optimistic about the long-term health of our brand in the APAC region, but we are adopting a cautious view relative to expected performance over the next few quarters.

First-quarter gross margins decreased 250 basis points year over year to 45.3%, primarily due to increased freight costs, as well as an unfavorable mix impact from higher wholesale sales. These pressures were partially offset by higher average selling prices, which have yet to fully reflect all of the wholesale price adjustments we have introduced. Operating expenses improved 120 basis points as a percentage of sales year over year from 36.8% to 35.6%. Selling expenses improved 40 basis points year over year as a percentage of sales as domestic selling expenses leveraged meaningfully against higher sales.

General and administrative expenses improved 80 basis points year over year as a percentage of sales where leverage returned to our international direct-to-consumer business after last year's COVID-related closures. Earnings from operations increased 12% compared to 2021 and operating margin for the quarter was 9.7% as compared with 11% in the prior year. The decrease was due to the previously mentioned gross margin pressures. Earnings per share were $0.77 per diluted share on 157.4 million diluted shares outstanding, representing 22% growth year over year.

Our effective tax rate for the first quarter was nearly flat to prior year at 20%. Now turning to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $819.9 million in cash, cash equivalents, and investments. This reflects a decrease of $695.1 million or 46% from March 31, 2021. As a reminder, we fully repaid our revolving credit facility in the second quarter of 2021.

In addition, we are feeling the effects of increased working capital requirements year over year from inventory and accounts receivables. Inventory was $1.45 billion, an increase of 36% or $382.1 million versus the prior year. This balance includes nearly $370 million of in-transit inventory, a year-over-year increase of over 50%. Accounts receivables at quarter-end were $1 billion, an increase of $211.8 million from March 31, 2021, predominantly the result of higher wholesale sales, particularly over the back half of the quarter.

Capital expenditures for the first quarter were $89.4 million of which $32.3 million were related to investments in our new corporate offices domestically and in India, $27.2 million related to the expansion of our distribution infrastructure globally, and $24.7 million related to investments in our direct-to-consumer technologies and retail stores. For the remainder of 2022, we expect total capital expenditures to be between $175 million and $225 million, reflecting continued investments in our distribution infrastructure, both in the United States and internationally, omnichannel capabilities, and our corporate offices. In alignment with our capital allocation philosophy, we previously announced a three-year $500 million share repurchase program. During the first quarter, we repurchased approximately 652,000 shares of our Class A common stock at a cost of $25 million.

We will continue to deploy our capital consistent with this philosophy toward investments in our business and direct returns to shareholders. Now I will turn to guidance. We remain confident in our growth strategy. But because of external pressures, including recent COVID-related shutdowns in China, geopolitical unrest, escalating inflationary pressures on both our business and our consumers, as well as ongoing supply chain disruptions, we are incorporating a more conservative outlook into our guidance, particularly in the second quarter until we have more certainty around the length and severity of these external headwinds.

For fiscal 2022, we expect sales to be in the range of $7.2 billion to $7.4 billion and net earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $2.75 to $2.95. For the second quarter, we expect sales to be in the range of $1.75 billion to $1.8 billion and net earnings per diluted share in the range of $0.50 to $0.55. We anticipate that gross margins will be down compared to last year, both in the second quarter and for the full year, as freight costs will offset improved pricing. However, we do expect gross margins to improve over the course of the year as our previously introduced wholesale pricing takes effect.

Our effective tax rate for the year is expected to be between 19% and 20%. And now I'll turn the call over to David for closing remarks. 

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

Skechers is in great shape as we mark our 30th year in business with record first-quarter sales of $1.8 billion following a record sales year in 2021. This growth was the result of quarterly increases of 33% in our wholesale business and 16% in our direct-to-consumer business, notable achievements, given the pandemic and macroeconomic-related headwinds. Consumers want innovation, style, quality, and casual comfort at a reasonable price, and Skechers delivers on all these attributes. We are a comfort technology company.

Our immediate focus, along with the safety of Skechers personnel, is to continue to deliver to consumers what they want as quickly as possible. Our entire organization is working to this end. We're expanding our reach around the world from shops-in-shop at key retailers in the United States and many international markets to expanding our offering with enhanced technologies and collaborations launching this year, to new retail stores in Madrid, Peru, the Philippines, and other markets, to more e-commerce sites and so much more. As we look ahead, we are also thinking of how we can grow in more sustainable ways, including developing more styles with recycled materials, building our new facilities with energy efficiencies, and addressing other ways we can lessen our impact on the environment.

With three decades of expertise under our belts, we see numerous opportunities to efficiently and profitably grow our business. With the momentum we are experiencing, we believe we will deliver record sales in 2022, furthering Skechers toward our goal of $10 billion in sales by 2026. Now I would like to turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Questions & Answers:

Operator

At this time, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Jay Sole with UBS. You may proceed with your question.

Jay Sole -- UBS -- Analyst

Great. Thank you so much. My question is on the guidance. Can you just talk about what gives you the confidence to raise the full-year EPS guidance? And then just sort of talk about the second quarter guide.

Is it different from the original projection that you had when you first gave the full-year guidance? And John, maybe in what way are you being more conservative with that second-quarter guide? Thank you.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Thanks, Jay. The confidence derives from what we're seeing in the marketplace, everything from the retail trends we're seeing, both our own and those of our wholesale partners, our backlog, and quite frankly, the robust appetite for the brand we're seeing across the globe. The conservatism we know aligns with some of the pressures we called out really across the globe but probably most acutely in Asia Pacific and within that region in China.

As they continue to contend with the COVID pandemic, we're seeing shutdowns. We're seeing store closures and operating restrictions. We're seeing movement restrictions for goods. So that's impacting our view in China.

What you're seeing kind of the net effect of that is probably more robust input outside of the Asia Pacific market with more conservatism from the Asia Pacific market. And then I would add to that, we have talked about freight being persistently high and higher than we had originally planned. That's a view that's now incorporated, we think, fully into our costs. Obviously, we're going to have to see how things unfold, but that's an impact we're tolerating.

And we're really waiting for some of our pricing to catch up to that, just given the delay in the supply chain. Some of the pricing we had expected to take place and take hold in the early part of this year is being deferred of it while we get those goods processed. The net effect of it, though, is really a continuing and robust perspective on what we think the brand can do this year. That's why we've raised the top line and confidence in the EPS guide we gave originally but, obviously, with some offsets and some conservatism in there, in particular, as I mentioned, for the continuing effects of COVID and some of the global unrest.

Jay Sole -- UBS -- Analyst

Got it. Maybe then, John, if I can just follow up on that one, and I'll pass it on. Just to focus on China for a little bit. You mentioned sales were up 9% in Q1.

Presumably, there was a little bit of an impact in the back half of March. Can you maybe elaborate on what kind of growth you expect in China in Q2? And give us a sense of how the lockdowns and some of the COVID-related issues that are happening there are impacting sales.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I don't want to get into country-level guidance other than to say that we definitely saw a very strong January and February. And then as we noted in our prepared comments, weakness in March as the effects of COVID became increasingly acute. That's carried on into April.

I would say we're taking a pretty conservative view of what we expect for the balance of the quarter, not dissimilar, although not to the same magnitude as what we saw in 2020 when China was grappling with the initial effects of the COVID pandemic. Now our hope is, obviously, things get better faster and that we're able to recover more of what our original expectations for growth were. But given what we've seen, which again includes numerous store closures, operating restrictions, and other challenges, we're taking a pretty conservative view on China in particular. I should also note, that there were effects outside of China as well.

This is not just a one-country issue. And as you saw in kind of the growth in Asia Pacific in the quarter, it was definitely an impact.

Jay Sole -- UBS -- Analyst

OK, got it. Thank you so much.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Jay.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Laurent Vasilescu with BNP Paribas. You may proceed with your question.

Laurent Vasilescu -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Thank you very much. Good afternoon, John and David. I wanted to follow up on Jay's question. I recognize, John, you don't want to really parse out or give guidance at the country level.

But with the new reporting segments, how do we think about Americas, Asia Pacific, and EMEA embedded in your 2Q or full-year guidance? Any color on that would be very helpful.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Thanks, Laurent. Although I certainly anticipate you would go straight to regional guidance, if not country guidance. What I would say is, again, our expectation for Q2 is probably going to be very similar to what we saw in Q1, which is strength in EMEA, strength in the Americas, and then challenges in APAC.

That's borne out of the commentary I just provided relative to China, in particular, but also what we believe the effects will be on adjacent markets. So if I were to paint a picture, it would be probably similar to Q1 with a more significant effect in APAC in the second quarter. We do plan for recovery. We do expect to see a recovery.

That would be a similar trajectory to what we saw in 2020. So we're using that as a bit of a guidepost. However, I think probably the more important observation I would draw out of the guidance is despite our second-largest single market experiencing what is arguably comparable challenges to what they saw in the early instances of the pandemic, we're still taking our guidance up and reaffirming our EPS. So we feel great about the way the brand is performing.

And I think unhindered, we would have shown both better results in Q1 and a more robust trajectory because the brand is that strong, and we're seeing the growth opportunities really across the globe. So we are being conservative in Asia Pacific, but it's not without a lot of enthusiasm for how the brand is performing at a consumer level and what that means outside of the region.

Laurent Vasilescu -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

That's very helpful, John. And then last year, Vietnam was a hot topic. Maybe 90 days from now, we'll see what China -- how China is evolving with COVID. But just for this call for today, if you can maybe provide some color on what you're seeing from a supply chain standpoint.

I think you have a big presence in China. Are you seeing factory disruptions? Are you seeing issues with the ports there? Any color on that would be helpful. And then I have a quick, quick follow-up on the 2Q GMs.

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

Well, I think we see all of the above, certainly to a partial degree, just like everybody else. No one is immune. But we seem to be doing well enough to get as much goods as we can ship. Nothing has really changed significantly.

It's gone a little up or down throughout the quarter and going into the next quarter. So we still have a significant amount that's impacted but even a greater amount that's coming in relatively on time, and we're processing. The good news is we're getting through the ports quicker, both in Europe and South America and in the U.S. So we're able to process a significant amount.

I mean, even with all the disruptions domestically out of the U.S., and I was kind of surprised, nobody is picking up on China rather than in the U.S., which I thought was a great part for us in the first quarter. We had our biggest shipping month out of our distribution center in Marino Valley that we've ever had. So that gives you an idea of how we can process through this whole issue that's going on.

Laurent Vasilescu -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Thank you, David. Just on the 2Q EPS guidance, I think it's a little bit light versus expectations. John, if you could just parse out like how much we should think about GMs and how much of it is driven by supply chain versus just the tough compare in the DTC business, which has a higher GM.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I mean the gross margin pressures that we've talked about, the freight, in particular, as I said, we've kind of readjusted our expectations to kind of this persistent and stubbornly high level. So that's the gross margin pressure. We expect those to continue into Q2.

Keep in mind, we also had a pretty substantial mix lift last year that because we've grown so much, in particular on the wholesale side of things, you're just getting a mix dilution effect that's not altogether with small. But the big issue at the gross margin level is that freight being high on our pricing over the course of the year catching up. After that, the biggest impact from the earnings per share standpoint is going to be what we expect to be that performance in China. And that will cause us to pretty significantly underlever our international wholesale component of the business.

And that's just the effects of seeing sales hampered by COVID.

Laurent Vasilescu -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Very helpful. Thank you very much.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Sure.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed with your question. 

Kimberly Greenberger -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK, great. Thank you so much. It's very clear the brand has a ton of momentum here, and that's so evident in the top line. So well done on that.

And I just want to say thanks so much for the additional transparency in the segment reporting. I think it's extremely helpful. John, I wanted to follow up on the gross margin discussion. In that 250-basis-point decline here in Q1, how much of that or how many basis points if you could help us understand the magnitude of impact would the freight headwinds be? And if you could help us understand what you think the freight impact is likely to be on the full-year gross margin, that would be great.

And I'm just looking at the segments. It looks like perhaps maybe the freight cost impact is impacting wholesale more than direct-to-consumer. I'm just wondering if you can help us understand why that might be.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And I probably don't want to get too far into dissecting the basis points other than to say the two biggest factors diluting gross margin were far and away, freight first. And when we say freight, just for clarification, we're including all aspects of transportation cost to land products. So there's more than just container rates, although that's the single biggest annoyance from my perspective.

And then mix, which is a fraction of that. And then we did take pricing. I don't want anybody to misconstrue that we haven't yet taken pricing. It's just the full effect of the pricing has yet to catch up.

And that's going to be the same formula you're seeing across the year. Although over the course of the quarters, it will get smaller and smaller as that pricing impact, particularly on the wholesale side of things, catches up. Keep in mind, when we were adjusting prices with the order book as it stands, you're anticipating months in advance. And I don't think anybody would have thought middle of last summer when you're contemplating price adjustments, that freight would have stayed as high as it has.

And so we're just suffering the consequences of that freight staying higher and much longer than anybody anticipated and then the pricing catching up. So it's also why we mentioned we expect gross margin to sequentially improve quarter over quarter, in particular, on the wholesale side of the business as that pricing catches up. We don't have the same challenge on timing in the direct-to-consumer side of the business there. As we noted last year, we were able to adjust prices much more quickly.

And so you're not seeing as much of that impact affect the direct-to-consumer side of things because we've already taken the benefit of that pricing adjustment. So it's helping us out there. So hopefully, that answers the question, both contextually and with some specificity.

Kimberly Greenberger -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK, great. That's a great color. So for the year, should we be thinking about like a 150-basis-point decline in gross margin in aggregate? Or any sort of ZIP code that you could help us get into? And then beyond this year, would 2023 be a year where you would expect the full benefit of those pricing increases to kick in? And would you expect next year to see gross -- a sort of full gross margin recovery?

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

So to the latter part of your question, absolutely expect the benefit of the pricing to kind of catch up. And that's assuming freight stays higher, all things being equal. I mean, keep in mind, I think it's noteworthy that we're still seeing a fairly strong environment on the direct-to-consumer side of things, low promotions, a low need for promotions. So assuming those all stay stable, we feel really good about where gross margins get back to by the time the full effect of our pricing takes hold.

But as I said, it will take some time over the course of the year, given that in the first two quarters, as well as the challenge in China that we mentioned, which is usually an accretive gross margin contributor, I don't think we can get -- we can't get back to -- at least at this point, don't expect that we can get back to prior year gross margins. So I would anticipate something on the full year that's down probably not as severe as what we've seen in this quarter, but definitely not fully back, just given the passage of time and the challenges that we've noted in Asia Pacific.

Kimberly Greenberger -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

OK, great. Thanks so much. And we look forward to monitoring the situation throughout the year. Thanks, John. 

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Gabby Carbone with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed with your question.

Gabriella Carbone -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Good afternoon. Thank you so much for taking my question. So kind of piggybacking off a prior question. You mentioned you expect strength in the Americas to continue.

Obviously, there's been a lot of concerns about direct-to-consumer spending slowdown in the U.S. So I was wondering if you could just touch on your thoughts around the U.S. consumer. Thank you.

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

Yes. We find the U.S. consumer is doing quite well, and we continue to have great sell-throughs, both our own and from what we hear from our third-party retailers as well. So right now, we haven't seen any slowdown or any decrease in demand when product hits our shores and we can get it out.

So I know there are other things hanging out there and other macro situations that people are thinking about. But currently, we could certainly deliver more if we get it. So we think our bias is to the upside right now and we'll see as we go forward. And it certainly held up for us through this month to date.

Historically, April is not a big month for wholesale. And we continue to ship on a very strong basis, not significantly dissimilar to what we did in March.

Gabriella Carbone -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Great, thank you. And then just a quick follow-up. Kind of longer-term, I'm just wondering how you're thinking about the SG&A rate. I know you talked about kind of growing that, as growing SG&A kind of in line with sales.

But where do you kind of see the opportunity to lower the rate kind of overtime?

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

I think it's the same as we've seen in the past. I think the only reason it hasn't is because we've now woken up to the strength of the brand and how well it's doing universally and have to make some significant investments, as we said in the prepared remarks, both to our POS to our own retail and to our distribution centers because we're growing at a much quicker pace over a broader spectrum of geography. So we do anticipate that continues. As is usual, we believe we've accounted for it in some of the commitments we've made for increases both in China, South America, as well as the U.S.

in distribution. And should that hold true and we get the efficiencies we're looking for from some of our upgrades, we should start to see that significant as we get through 2023 into 2024. But with us, there's always a caveat. We could always -- it seems to be with the way we're developing and the way the marketplace is coming back, increase the pace of growth again, and have to step up again.

So that would be the only caveat.

Gabriella Carbone -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brian McNamara with Berenberg Capital Markets. You may proceed with your question.

Brian McNamara -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I'm curious if you can elaborate on your buybacks and kind of how we should think about that moving forward? It looks like you did buybacks at around $38 in Q1. The share price is pretty depressed here.

So how should investors think about buybacks? Are you willing to get a little more aggressive, given what the stock's done recently despite strong results?

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I mean, keep in mind, we announced the buyback kind of mid-quarter, so we didn't have a full quarter's worth of activity and we go into our blackout prior to earnings. So there's only so much kind of capacity we had to buy. Our approach will be both market-sensitive and also, I'd say, ratable over the life of the repurchase.

We'll be more aggressive when we think fair value has had a significant deficit to what the -- or a significant premium to what the market is trading at. Otherwise, you can expect to be a ratable deployment. I think it's -- we announced it and we got it into action, and we were happy to be able to take advantage of what was then some pretty depressed prices. After today, I can only imagine that frame of reference will hold for the near term.

But again, what we're keeping our eye on is the long-term value opportunity we see in the shares and then judging our capacity in light of that against where the market is trading at any given point in time. And I'm sure you won't find it a shock, but we definitely feel like there's a disconnect between what we feel the value of the shares is and what the market is showing currently.

Brian McNamara -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Thanks. So just a quick follow-up on your enhanced geographic disclosures. I really applaud that. I'm curious what drove that decision.

Is this kind of a longer-term discussion that you've had over there? I think there are a lot of guesses in the marketplace in terms of your exposure to Eastern Europe and Russia, Ukraine, and the like. Did that more drive the decision? Or is it kind of a longer-term discussion you've had over the years?

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Well, as you can imagine, that's not something you change easily. It requires a lot of prework and a lot of effort. And really, we've made a lot of changes all at once. So it comes across as a fairly simple change in reporting but is a reflection of a significant amount of work by the team here.

Ultimately, we feel like these segments reflect how we run the business, and how we make decisions about the business. They better align, we think, with how investors analyze the business in terms of the enhanced reporting. It's often a question we received from you all, how the business is performing in certain regions. So we thought adding some regional context was going to be helpful.

And then I think also giving a fuller appreciation for the magnitude of our direct-to-consumer business was important, and that's something that wasn't quite as visible as we felt it needed to be in the old reporting structure. So being able to then include the totality of our businesses, including our joint ventures in the segment reporting framework was important. And our hope is obviously that that leads to, as we said, greater transparency to the strength of our brand. Obviously, we feel very good about how our brand is performing and the receptivity is receiving worldwide.

So anything we can do to help provide more visibility into that strength to you and other stakeholders, we felt was worth the effort.

Brian McNamara -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Great. Best of luck to you guys.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Brian.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Omar Saad with Evercore. You may proceed with your question.

Omar Saad -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Thanks for taking my question. I appreciate all the inside information. A couple of follow-ups. Number one, I thought I heard someone say early on that there's some -- when you talked about the conservatism in your guidance and the macro factors affecting your outlook, I think you mentioned some signs of pressures or pressures on the consumer.

Are you seeing any signs of that, of the inflation hitting the consumer? And then I also would appreciate it if you guys could maybe give a little bit of more thought process around the wholesale acceleration. I'm sure big numbers are going to that channel. Is a lot of that restocking and stocking up from your wholesale accounts? And is it a company with sell-through? And are there certain wholesale channels that are winning and others that are losing? Thanks.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

In so far as the inflation comment, we're just noting that it's something we're keeping an eye on. As David mentioned and I would reiterate, we have not yet seen any significant pullback in consumer discretionary spending for our customers because we're seeing both strong wholesale sales but, as David mentioned, very strong sell-through and ASPs to boot. So overall, while we haven't seen anything impacting the consumer, we're cognizant of it. We did note the inflationary pressures on transportation costs, and that's something we've already commented on and how it's impacting our business.

So those are kind of the two inflationary points I would address. I think from a wholesale perspective, in all honesty, Omar, a part of it was simply the ability to receive goods and process goods. Our supply chain team did a fantastic job once in receipt of goods to process more than we've ever in March and against some pretty challenging circumstances. So the ability to get the goods in allowed us to process and sell-through to our wholesale partners in a way that we just hadn't the capability in prior quarters because of the supply chain issues.

It doesn't -- my perspective is it doesn't feel like restocking. Although clearly, there is some restocking going on because we continue to see very robust sell-through rates. And so even if it is a restocking effort, you're seeing it sell-through at the consumer level. And that's something we also see in our own retail stores, really strong sell-throughs to whatever we can get onto the shelves.

So overall, I would characterize it more as robust consumer demand for the product than anything else, but that's just my perspective.

Omar Saad -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Got it. That's really helpful, John. And maybe you could quickly touch on that. Did you say 15% kind of ASP increases? How much of that is higher retails versus lower markdown?

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Tough to tell with any degree of precision. What I would probably say is the same thing we've previously said. We believe the majority of it is pricing. But there's not an insignificant component associated with a more favorable promotional environment, which is something obviously we're watching from a competitive standpoint globally to see what the temperature of promotional activity is.

But so far, it seems to be relatively subdued.

Omar Saad -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Thanks for all the disclosure. 

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Omar.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Sam Poser with Williams Trading. You may proceed with your question.

Sam Poser -- Williams Trading -- Analyst

Thank you. Thank you for taking my question. I've got a few like just housekeeping and then a more detailed question. One, can you give us where you think the gross -- can you give us the gross margin for Q2 or at least the basis points difference versus the prior year? Do you expect it to be greater? I mean just give us more details there.

You sort of gave us some on Q1. And then what is the share count that we should use both for the quarter and for the full year? And then I've got two more detailed questions.

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I mean I don't -- we don't give precise gross margin guidance for a reason, in part, because it depends on what unfolds in the business, including factors like mix. I would just note, it's more likely to be closer to what it was in the first quarter than it was in the second quarter of last year. Again, keeping in mind, last year, we certainly over-indexed as a business to our direct-to-consumer.

So by virtue of the growth we've seen across the business, including wholesale, there's just some mixed down effect but also, obviously, the continuing freight challenges. So I'd point you more toward where we were this quarter because it's a persistent cost issue we're dealing with than anything else, but also note that last year was elevated. For the moment, I would probably direct you toward using the current share count. We don't have any precise plans against the repurchase that we'd share in advance because, as we said, it depends on where the market trades relative to our perception of fair value.

So I wouldn't give you any other guidance on share count other than where we're at currently, and then we'll update that as we progress throughout the year based on our actual repurchase activity.

Sam Poser -- Williams Trading -- Analyst

And just a clarification, by being similar, you're not talking about down in basis points. Are you talking like this in the 45.3% range? Or are you talking sort of about similar in a year-over-year change?

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

I would -- just to be clear, what I said is closer to where we were this quarter than the second quarter of last year. We do expect improvement though quarter over quarter. So we are looking for a sequential improvement as more and more of that pricing takes hold.

Sam Poser -- Williams Trading -- Analyst

OK. And then just two more things. One, on your supply chain, can you go into some details on to how you really -- what sort of behind the scenes has allowed you to deliver more products more efficiently than others or probably more efficiently than others in the quarter? And then secondly, with the U.S. wholesale business, did you -- was any -- given you shipped so much in Q -- in March, were there April orders that got moved forward into the quarter, hence, we probably won't expect another -- a number quite as big as Q1 was in domestic wholesale in the second quarter?

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

Well, to go from back to first, the answer to that would probably be no. We didn't move anything up. We're still catching up, and we're still trying to catch up at a faster pace because I think the demand, especially in the United States, probably in Europe as well, and if you go regionally, probably everywhere, but APAC is significantly stronger than most people would have believed going into the quarter. So we haven't pulled in significant amounts forward.

As I said before, we continue to ship as well in April. And I guess, I'm trying to come up with what the secret sauce is to deliver. But if we came public with that, we'd have to sell that for a significant amount as we do it as well. But by and large, and for those listening to the call, it's our people.

It's our people domestically, our people around the world, our people in Asia that work with the factories, and our factories themselves that we've been very close to for a very significant long period of time, that all work together to get the best possible results that we can.

Sam Poser -- Williams Trading -- Analyst

All right. Thank you very much for your continued success. 

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Sam.

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Tom Nikic with Wedbush. You may proceed with your question.

Ezra Weener -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Hi. Ezra Weener here on for Tom. Thanks for taking my question. So just quickly, in terms of inflation, I know you said demand has been strong.

Do you believe demand could be helped by people moving down from higher price point brands to Skechers as opposed to just standard not shopping at all?

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

I think it's twofold. We do have some products that would fall into that category, and I think a lot of people may put us there. But I think the real strength is the quality and the technologies we're putting into our footwear to match the lifestyle. I think we're creating demand for the product itself on a comparative basis, not only on a price basis and at a redone.

So I think we get the best of both worlds, and that's what you're seeing around the world as we pick up space on both sides of that equation.

Ezra Weener -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 54 minutes

Call participants:

Unknown speaker

David Weinberg -- Chief Operating Officer

John Vandemore -- Chief Financial Officer

Jay Sole -- UBS -- Analyst

Laurent Vasilescu -- Exane BNP Paribas -- Analyst

Kimberly Greenberger -- Morgan Stanley -- Analyst

Gabriella Carbone -- Deutsche Bank -- Analyst

Brian McNamara -- Berenberg Capital Markets -- Analyst

Omar Saad -- Evercore ISI -- Analyst

Sam Poser -- Williams Trading -- Analyst

Ezra Weener -- Wedbush Securities -- Analyst

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