Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Eagle Bulk Shipping (EGLE)
Q2 2022 Earnings Call
Aug 05, 2022, 8:00 a.m. ET

Contents:

• Prepared Remarks
• Questions and Answers
• Call Participants

Prepared Remarks:

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Eagle Bulk Shipping second quarter earnings call. [Operator instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Gary Vogel, CEO of Eagle Bulk Shipping.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, and good morning, and our apologies for the technical difficulties. I'd like to welcome everyone to Eagle Bulk's second quarter 2022 earnings call. To supplement our remarks today, I would encourage participants to access the slide presentation that is available on our website at eagleships.com. Please note that part of our discussion today will include forward-looking statements.

These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are inherently subject to risks and uncertainties. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a more detailed discussion of the risks and uncertainties that may have a direct bearing on our operating results, our performance and our financial condition. Our discussion today also includes certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted net income, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA and TCE.

Please refer to the appendix in the presentation and our earnings release filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission for more information concerning non-GAAP financial measures and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Please turn to Slide 6. Before we get into discussing the quarter, I'd like to take this opportunity to mention that our thoughts and prayers remain with all those affected by the war in Ukraine, including our Ukrainian seafarers, who maintain their steadfast dedication and commitment to Eagle while being so far from their homeland and their loved ones. As we indicated on our last call, we've taken steps to provide extra support and assistance to them and to their families during this difficult time.

From a market perspective, the war has disrupted typical trade patterns and altered demand as cargoes are being sourced from and sent to alternative regions, something we'll address later in the call. For Q2, we were able to capitalize on the market volatility, and due to the efforts of our team, we're able to achieve our best-ever quarterly results, with net income coming in at $94.5 million, or $7.27 per share basic. Adjusting for noncash mark-to-market gains on derivative hedges, net income came in at $81.6 million, or $6.28 per share. As part of our ongoing fleet renewal strategy, we sold the motor vessel, Cardinal, a 2004-built Supramax and the oldest vessel in Eagle's fleet, just ahead of our statutory drydock.

The transaction is expected to close later this month. Pro forma for this sale, our fleet totals 52 ships averaging about 9.6 years of age, with 90% being fitted with scrubbers, which continues to offer Eagle a competitive advantage. Please turn to Slide 7. Our record results, driven by our strong top line performance, generated a net TCE of $30,207 per day.

This represents an increase of 10% quarter on quarter and an outperformance against our benchmark index of approximately $2,500 or 9%. As we look forward to the third quarter, we fixed approximately 72% of our owned available days for the third quarter at a net TCE of $29,024, indicating a significant outperformance against the BSI. Although we remain constructive on the market, we believe volatility will remain elevated in the near term. As such, we've taken a more conservative approach on coverage for the balance of the year and going into 2023.

As you can denote from yesterday's press release, as of June 30, we've sold BSI FFAs for the fourth quarter, totaling almost 40% of our owned available days at an average level of $22,322. It's worth noting that the FFA values I'm talking about are based on a nonscrubber-fitted Supramax. We believe this approach is prudent given the current market volatility, as well as varying macroeconomic forecasts. We also continue to charter out ships on a selective basis on a longer period as well.

As an example, just last week, we fixed a scrubber-fitted Ultramax out for a minimum of 12 months starting in October at $25,000 gross TCE per day. This strategy, utilizing both FFAs and ships, has proven to be an effective part of our dynamic approach to fleet management. The fixed revenues derived from our FFAs and physical charters, combined with earnings from fuel spreads, helped to provide surety of revenue streams and bodes well for strong TCE performance through the balance of the year. Please turn to Slide 8.

Given the inherent high operating leverage in our business, robust revenue in Q2 led to record operating performance with adjusted EBITDA coming in at $102.6 million after adjusting for the unrealized P&L impact of our hedges and certain other noncash items included in G&A. Our trailing 12-month EBITDA run rate is now $370 million, implying a very modest EV/EBITDA multiple of just 2.5. On the back of the significant cash generation, our financial profile continues to improve, with net leverage estimating at around 18%. Please turn to Slide 9.

Asset price performance has been fantastic over the past 18 months, with 10-year old Supramax vessels more than doubling in value. Given the significant elevation of values and a recent correction in spot rates, as well as the macroeconomic landscape, S&P activity has slowed down somewhat with prices plateauing. This notwithstanding, we remain constructive on the market, with asset prices in the medium term given the positive supply demand dynamic, which we'll address later in the call. I would now like to turn the call over to Frank, who will review our financial performance.

Frank De Costanzo -- Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Gary. Please turn to Slide 11 for a summary of our second quarter financial results. TCE revenues totaled $138.2 million in Q2. The significant increase in market rates, along with the increase in available days, drove our top line growth versus prior quarter.

Net income for Q2 was $94.5 million. Earnings per share for the second quarter was $7.27 on a basic basis. On a diluted basis, which includes shares related to the convertible bond, EPS came in at $5.77 for the quarter. Adjusted net income, which excludes noncash unrealized gains and derivatives, came in at $81.6 million for the second quarter, or $6.28 on a basic basis.

On a diluted basis, adjusted EPS came in at $4.98 for the quarter. Our adjusted EBITDA record result for Q2 was $102.6 million, 21% higher than prior quarter. Let's now please turn to Slide 12 for an overview of our balance sheet and liquidity. Total cash at the end of Q2 was $141.5 million, an increase of $57.9 million as compared to Q1.

The significant increase in the company's Q2 cash balance was driven by our strong operating results, offset in part by repayments of $12.5 million of debt, vessel improvements and the Q1 dividend. Total liquidity came in at $241.5 million at the end of Q2. Total liquidity is comprised of total cash of $141.5 million and $100 million of a fully undrawn revolving credit facility. It is important to note that we own three unencumbered vessels which provide us with additional flexibility to increase our liquidity.

In addition, the Cardinal is not classified as a vessel held for sale. We expect that vessel to be delivered to her new owner in August, generating approximately $15.5 million in cash. Total debt at the end of Q2 was $376.8 million, a decrease of $12.5 million as a result of the quarterly repayment of the Ultraco debt facility. We entered into interest rate swaps around the time of our global refi in early October 2021 to fixed interest rate exposures on the term loan.

As a result of these swaps, which averaged 87 basis points, the company's interest rate exposure is fully fixed, insulating us from the adverse impact of rising interest rates. Please now turn to Slide 13 for an overview of our cash flows from operations. Net cash provided by operating activities was $98 million in Q2. The chart highlights the timing-driven variability that working capital introduces to cash from ops, as depicted by the differences between the dark blue bars, which are reported cash from ops and the light blue bars, which strip out changes in operating assets and liabilities, primarily working capital.

As the chart demonstrates, the volatility caused by working capital largely evens out over time. The differences between the two bars in Q2 can be explained primarily by the increases in the value of receivables and inventories on both higher market values, market rate values and bunker prices. Our receivable collection is outstanding, as reflected in the company's robust cash generation and an overall strong cash conversion cycle. Please turn to Slide 14 for our Q2 cash walk.

The turn at the top of the slide lays up the increase in the company's cash balance during Q2. The revenue and operating expenditures bars are a simple look at the operations, with the net of these two bars coming in at $103 million, the same as our adjusted EBITDA results. The dividend and debt service bars, which can be found further to the right, explain most of the remaining Q2 activity. The chart at the bottom of the slide similarly covers the cumulative cash movements for the first two quarters of 2022.

Let's now turn to Slide 15 for our cash breakeven per ship per day. Cash breakeven per ship per day came in at $11,741 for the second quarter. The quarter-on-quarter decrease of $1,550 is due to lower vessel operating costs, drydocking, G&A and interest expense. Vessel expenses or opex came in at $5,584 per ship per day in Q2, $237 lower than prior quarter.

The decrease was primarily due to lower repairs and stores expenses. This notwithstanding, we continue to face COVID-related costs, as well as general inflationary pressures. Drydocking came in at $1,104 per ship per day in Q2, $1,155 lower than prior quarter as we completed drydocks for three vessels during the quarter. We have also made advanced payments in the quarter ahead of Q3 drydocks.

Cash G&A came in at $1,718 per ship per day in Q2, down $78 from Q1. It is worth noting that our G&A per ship calculation is based solely on our owned vessels, whereas we operate a larger fleet, which includes our chartered-in tonnage. If we were to include the chartered-in days in our calculation, G&A per ship per day would improve by $329 to $1,389 for the quarter. Cash interest expense came in at $754 per ship per day in Q2, $51 lower than prior quarter as we realized an increase in interest income due to rising interest rates and our increasing cash balance.

Cash debt principal payments came in at $2,581 per ship per day in Q2. Looking ahead, we expect the following per ship per day in Q3. Opex should come in at around $5,750. Drydocks to decline to about $300 on significantly lower drydock activity.

G&A is expected to come in at circa $1,750. Again, it's worth noting the figure would be about $300 lower if we were to include chartered-in ships. Cash interest expense is expected to remain steady at circa $750. Cash debt amortization is expected to remain at $2,581 per ship per day.

This concludes my comments. I will now turn the call back to Gary.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Frank. Please turn to Slide 17. Year to date, Supramax has continued to outpace all other drybulk segments with BSI currently averaging over $26,000, which notably is on par to last year's stellar performance. Also, as mentioned earlier on the call, freight volatility has increased in recent months due to the effects of the continued war in Ukraine and the macroeconomic environment.

Notwithstanding lower drybulk volumes led by a lack of cargoes from Ukraine, substitution of Black Sea grain exports and an increase in European coal imports had led to a meaningful increase in ton miles which has been positive for fleet utilization and, in turn, supportive of rates. Congestion has had a mixed effect, with Northern European ports struggling to absorb the large increase in coal imports. European coal imports came in 72% higher for the second quarter as compared to the same period last year. Concurrently, we've witnessed a decrease in vessel congestion in China with the easing of COVID-related restrictions, combined with muted short-term import demand, particularly with respect to iron ore and coal.

Separately, Fed tightening and the expectation for further hikes led to a sharp sell-off in commodities in early June, which in turn impacted sentiment. With these disparate factors at work and being in the middle of the summer period, the BSI has traded down to under $20,000 per day. While well off recent highs, this is quite strong by historical standards and about $9,000 above our breakeven -- cash breakeven cost and doesn't include revenues from scrubbers and our operating activities. With China slowly reopening and as stimulus measures begin to roll out, we believe we could see a meaningful recovery in manufacturing activity and, in turn, drybulk demand, a significant positive for rates as we head into the fourth quarter, a quarter historically supported as well by the North American grain harvest.

Please turn to Slide 18. Fuel prices continued to move higher in Q2 with HSFO and VLSFO averaging $683 and $911 per ton, respectively. The spread between HSFO and VLSFO prices remain very volatile, hitting a high of more than $370 per ton on average in the quarter and then averaging $228, up to 21% compared to the first quarter. On an illustrative basis, given our fleet scrubber position, we would realize a benefit of close to $75 million on an annualized basis based on fuel spreads of $316 per ton.

Please turn to Slide 19. Net fleet supply growth slowed in Q2. A total of 96 drybulk newbuild vessels were delivered during the period, down 25% year on year. Partially offsetting this, eight vessels were scrapped during the same period.

As we've mentioned previously, despite record scrap prices, the low level of vessel scrapping is not surprising given the strength in the underlying spot market. Positively, this continues to increase the number of older ships that will inevitably need to be scrapped -- recycled in the future. In terms of forward supply growth, the overall drybulk order book stands at a historically low level of just 7.2% of the on-the-water fleet. For 2022, drybulk net fleet growth is expected to be 2.7%, which will be down around 25% as compared with last year.

Looking further ahead, 2023 net fleet growth is projected to drop further to just 0.7%, driven by muted deliveries and an increase in scrapping volumes. A total of 53 drybulk ships were ordered during Q2, down about 70% compared to the prior quarter and less than half of the average over the last five years of roughly 110 ships per quarter. It's worth noting that the vast majority of ships being ordered today will only be delivered in 2024 and beyond. Although we expect some level of ordering to continue, we still believe it will remain low for reasons we have articulated a number of times before.

Please turn to Slide 20. In terms of macro demand, the IMF has lowered their GDP growth estimate for this year to 3.2%, down 40 basis points as compared to the forecast as of April. After reaching a multiyear high last year, drybulk trade demand growth is expected to be flat in 2022. However, taking into consideration the significant ton-mile effect I mentioned before caused by the war in Ukraine, it increases to positive 1.2%.

For 2023, current market estimates are pegging drybulk trade demand growth to increase to 2% versus 2022 on a core basis, excluding any ton-mile effect. Please turn to Slide 21. Breaking down drybulk demand into its primary components, it's evident that the growth fundamentals for minor bulk has been and continues to be superior as compared to major bulks. Given our exclusive focus on the midsize segment, our cargo mix typically consists of between 60% and 70% of minor bulks.

For 2022, minor bulk trade demand is expected to reach 1.1% on a core basis as compared to the major bulks, which is forecasted to decrease by 0.8%. This is the primary reason why Supramaxes have been the best-performing asset class this year, outpacing Capes by $8,000 per day even though they're about a third the size and cost about 40% less. Although near-term market volatility is elevated, we remain optimistic about the medium-term prospects for drybulk given the positive forces benefiting demand, combined with a record low order book and a number of emissions regulations that will come into force over the next couple of years. We believe these dynamics will further improve the supply side in terms of fleet utilization and scrapping.

Given our outlook, the strong results to date and consistent with our stated capital allocation strategy, Eagle's board of directors declared a second quarter cash dividend of $2.20 per share, equating to just over 30% of net income. This is the fourth consecutive quarterly dividend since we adopted our dividend policy last October and brings total shareholder distributions to $8.25 per share. In closing, we remain energized about Eagle's leadership position within the midsize drybulk segment, and we're looking forward to continuing our strong level of execution to benefit our shareholders. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to the operator and answer any questions you may have.

Operator?

Questions & Answers:

Operator

[Operator instructions] Our first question comes from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Hi. Thank you. Hi there. Good morning, guys.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. Welcome back.

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Thanks, Gary. I wanted to ask about the market. You laid out some of the broader headwinds that we've seen with economic uncertainty, reduced congestion and whatnot kind of going back to early June. I guess maybe recently, we've seen some more pronounced weakness just maybe the past week or two.

Has anything changed? Or is there any maybe shift in -- whether it's charter appetite or cargo availability? Has something changed over the past couple of weeks that makes it more pronounced? Or is it more maybe just a gradual snowball effect of what you talked about that dated back to maybe June?

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I don't think there's any wholesale event that I would point to here. I mean first of all, we are right in the middle of summer, which historically is a weak period, particularly for the midsize. And this -- the summer market is, in the Atlantic particularly, is often buoyed by cargoes out of the Black Sea, and we're seeing virtually no grain, of course, from Ukraine.

And so that's having an impact on that market overall. And then as I mentioned, we've seen an unwinding of congestion in China. So I think it's volatility, right? We're at similar levels in the early part of this year. So we just -- this is part of what we expect.

It's a little more significant of all right now than in the midsize segment. But like I said, we were here earlier in the year and the fundamentals, we think, are quite promising for the latter part of the year. And especially, Brazil has -- is starting to export corn now and the North American grain harvest coming on, which will also be a longer ton-mile event this year than typically because of the dislocation of cargoes from Ukraine. So we think it's, let's call it, it's an August effect along with some other overlays.

And I'll leave it at that.

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Got it. Thanks for that color. And I guess you highlighted that some of the FFA contracts you entered into within that time charter, I think you said it was last week that you signed the one year that kicks off in October at $25,000?

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yup. So clearly, obviously, a very strong rate. And it sounds like that was even a premium to maybe what the broad prevailing TCE averages were a week ago. I guess -- I know it's difficult to answer, but how repeatable do you think that is, say, in today's market? I gauge that maybe the rate may be off from that $25,000, but would you be able to still secure one year today? Just -- I'm comparing it to last week, so it's very, very short term.

But just wondering if there's any maybe wholesale change in market dynamics over the past couple of weeks.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. Look, the market's off over the last week. And I think if you look at the change in the forward market, not the index, but the forward market, you'd probably see a similar impact, not exactly dollar for dollar but on a period rate as well, right? I mean we -- these trade similarly, not exactly. Of course, there's dislocations, but the market is off over the last week and a half.

Having said that, that charter, that one-year charter, there's a number of things that play there. That's a scrubber-fitted ship, right? And scrubbers right now at spot rates are, for an Ultramax, are earning around $4,000 a day across the fleet. And that's obviously meaningful. And again, it's an Ultramax versus a Supramax, which is the FFA rates that we're looking on.

So when we go out and when we relet ships, right, it's not like you just wake up in the morning and do it. It's based on relationships and developing it. So like I said, it would be down slightly today, but we pick our moments when we think there's better value in the physical market than the FFA market. And if there wasn't an opportunity or we wanted more cover, we go out and sell an FFA.

And then we can reverse that, right? If we have someone comes and wants to ship next week, we might buy back the FFA and relet the ship. And that's a dynamic part of our strategy that I think is unique and differentiated and enables us to add value and achieve these TCEs that, frankly, for a pure Ultramax, Supramax/Ultramax player with half in each half of our fleet in each segment, I think, is pretty demonstrative.

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Yeah. Definitely. Thanks, Gary. One -- just one final follow-up question here just on the scrubbers.

Clearly, it's been a home run. And there's been some talk, I'm not sure how substantial or significant it is, but there's some talk that maybe some owners are looking to retrofit scrubbers on their ships that they didn't do back in 2018, 2019. You guys have been in a unique spot really with maybe at most 10% of the Supra/Ultra fleet having scrubbers. Do you think or have you heard of any plans from shipowners that will see another wave of scrubber investment here as we look ahead?

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So the answer is that I think you'll see some retrofitting and you definitely see scrubbers on most newbuildings coming out. Having said that, to your point, right, a very small percentage of the midsize segment and the payback is slightly longer. Being first and being there at the start was really an imperative for us.

We have three nonscrubber-fitted Supramaxes, sister ships to other vessels that are all scrubber-fitted. We've looked at it and decided at this point we're not doing it. The lead time, the off-hire time, of course, off-hire today is significantly more expensive than it was when we retrofitted our fleet in 2019. So I think you'll see some uptick, but I think it will be focused on the larger sizes from the economic aspect of it.

But I don't think it will be meaningful. I think that the midsize segment will continue, I think, as far as I can see, to be significantly a VLSFO burning fleet for the future.

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Understood. Thanks, Gary, for that. I'll turn it over.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

OK. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Poe Fratt with Alliance Global Partners. Your line is now open.

Poe Fratt -- Alliance Global Partners -- Analyst

Good morning, Gary. Good morning, Frank. Quick follow-up on if you do see scrubber retrofits on some of the suite, I mean, that implies that downtime is going to be more significant in 2023 or whenever that happens, too. Just a quick question on your hedge book.

Is there anything in particular that triggered you to double -- almost double your hedge book in the fourth quarter? And then secondly, do you have anything in -- out into the '23 time frame? And then thirdly, you talked about how that's just basically on the BSI index. Can you help us adjust for your fleet to get to sort of a time charter equivalent for what you've hedged in the fourth quarter net to Eagle?

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Sure. So let me start with helping you look at the FFA against the fleet. I mean as I mentioned to one of Omar's questions, right, our fleet is about half Ultramax, half Supramax. Every ship has a value relative to the index ship, which is the specification of a Japanese 58.

So if you have a Japanese 58 nonscrubber-fitted vessel, the FFA is a pretty good proxy for what that ship is worth in the open market on any given day. So Ultramaxes, in general, are worth about 10% to 12% more than the indexed ship. There are some that are even better and some that are worse, but I would use 10%, 12%. I mean you can look at our slide around fuel spreads and what that means in terms of scrubber, right now, probably $4,000 a day.

The forward curve is down from that. So how much you are able to glean from a charter is somewhere probably south of $4,000, but you can -- you obviously, as an owner, are looking to maximize as much as possible. And so that's how you kind of get to it. And then from an Eagle standpoint, our ability to outperform the index also based on our methodology and trading platform.

So I'd say right now, just roughly, you're probably looking at about $2,600, $2,700 a day premium for a scrubber on a midsize ship to add on to a period of one year based on the forward curve, quick math. In terms of our forward, we only report our FFAs as of June 30. And we don't include them in our coverage, when we say we're 72% covered at any given time because our FFA position is dynamic. As I mentioned, we may sell an FFA and buy it back.

So we only report it once a quarter and we leave it at that because -- but as I mentioned in our remarks, we are -- we do have -- are building some coverage into next year. Next year still trades extremely backwardated to the index today. I mean it's around $13,500 today for next year, which we -- aside from the market being off significantly today, we just find that severely backwardated. And we're not looking to hedge our fleet at those kinds of numbers in general, right? There may be an opportunity against the ship we charter in or something like that.

So we've been focused more on physical for next year and also focused on, let's say, increasing our hedge position this year, where there's not as much of a backwardation. And as you can see, as of June 30, as I mentioned, almost 40% of our fleet covered just on FFAs. Hopefully, that's helpful.

Poe Fratt -- Alliance Global Partners -- Analyst

Yeah. Very helpful. And then you had a pretty significant cash build in the third -- in the second quarter. That should continue in the third and fourth quarters.

Looking at your cash build, the decline in net debt, potentially being net debt zero by the end of next year, how do you look at capital allocation in the context of the convert coming up in 2024? And then also the dividend is likely to -- while it's $2.20 now, it's likely to decline. And I was just wondering sort of how you're looking at that formula in the context of maybe allocating some cash to support the dividend to keep it closer to $2 over the course of each quarter? Is that something you're thinking about right now? Or is that something that the board is going to decide on a quarter-to-quarter basis?

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

So let me start by saying I'm not really focused on what the dividend will be next quarter. I'm focused on maximizing our revenue during the quarter so that it's an easy decision when we get there. But in all seriousness, I think if you look back at past actions, right, our board decided to pay in excess of 30% last quarter and brought us to $2. What they've done in the past is not a guarantee, but I think it shows the willingness of our board to allocate capital when they deem -- feel it's appropriate, whether that's from noncash adjustments on FFAs or what have you.

And as you mentioned, we've had a significant cash build. You also mentioned the convert, and that's something that we've talked about. At some point, we -- of course, that will likely be converted. Whether we use cash or shares or a combination of both is in the company's option.

So building cash around that, we think, makes sense. And as we get closer to maturity, which is now less than two years out, the cost for an early redemption goes down because of the Black-Scholes modeling behind the pricing. So we think building some cash around that makes sense. And there's nothing wrong with having cash on the balance sheet from an optionality standpoint as well.

Poe Fratt -- Alliance Global Partners -- Analyst

Great. Thanks for your time.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

[Operator instructions] I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, operator. We have nothing further, but I'd like to thank everyone for joining us and wish everyone a good day and a good weekend. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator signoff]

Duration: 0 minutes

Call participants:

Gary Vogel -- Chief Executive Officer

Frank De Costanzo -- Chief Financial Officer

Omar Nokta -- Jefferies -- Analyst

Poe Fratt -- Alliance Global Partners -- Analyst

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