Shares of Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) have delivered a nearly fivefold return from their initial public offering price in 2019. But the stock is down 19% year to date, which can be attributed to a few things.
Investors are concerned with looming headwinds, including the recent Tread recall and what will happen to Peloton's growth as the economy reopens. Looking at the bigger picture, I believe these obstacles are bumps in the road that Peloton can easily speed past.
Peloton just announced a partnership with UnitedHealth (NYSE:UNH) to expand access to fitness classes to eligible UnitedHealth members. What's more, Peloton is just beginning to penetrate international markets. These are big catalysts that investors are overlooking right now.
1. Expanding access to Peloton products
Peloton has been working to make its fitness classes more accessible for customers that might balk at paying $2,495 for an exercise bike. Last year, it lowered the price of its original Bike after launching the new Bike+. Peloton is now pivoting to partner with corporations to widen its market potential.
The company recently announced the Peloton Corporate Wellness offering. Wayfair, Accenture, and Nasdaq are three companies that already offer their employees access to Peloton's streamed classes in addition to other benefits related to Peloton's connected fitness products.
The recent news of the UnitedHealth partnership shows Peloton emerging as a mainstream consumer brand, which could make it unstoppable. Starting Sept. 1, nearly 4 million UnitedHealth commercial members will be able to access fitness classes through the Peloton app for free for 12 months. But this could be just the start.
During the Bank of America Global Technology conference in June, CFO Jill Woodworth said the company is "super excited about some partnerships" the company could do with healthcare providers, which implies there could be more deals in the works.
Peloton ended the recent quarter with more than 5 million subscribers across connected fitness products (Bike and Tread) and the Peloton app. As the subscriber base grows, Peloton is gaining a wealth of health data on its users. This data can help health insurers better manage their premiums and could be an important competitive advantage for Peloton.
2. International expansion
Peloton is preparing to penetrate new international markets this year. It's set to enter Australia in the coming months, and management sees opportunities across many more markets.
Keep in mind that expanding overseas presents new challenges for Peloton. For example, there could be areas where the brand is not as well known as in the U.S., so Peloton might have to price its products lower and accept a lower profit margin in order to stimulate demand. But management is only interested in expanding in areas where it sees significant sales potential.
Besides Australia, other markets that Peloton is interested in are Canada, the U.K., and Germany. Peloton can likely grow for a long time in just these markets. With the addition of the U.S., these four markets have an estimated 90 million people that go to a gym. Woodworth said that Peloton plans to enter one or two new markets per year.
It's time to buy Peloton
The stock looks richly valued at a market cap of $36 billion, or a price-to-sales ratio of 10.5, but I believe that could look like a steal in another 10 years. Peloton is emerging as the default at-home fitness option, similar to Nike's dominance in sneakers. The footwear giant has a market cap of $259 billion. Nike's Training Club app and Peloton's expanding apparel line show the two companies are going after the same opportunities.
The expansion of Peloton's corporate wellness program and international growth could push Peloton much closer to its addressable market of 15 million households. That's about seven times its current subscriber base, but Peloton posted a stellar 135% year-over-year growth rate in connected fitness subscribers in fiscal Q3, which is similar to the growth rates before the pandemic. That growth trajectory suggests the market could be much larger.