What happened
Shares of Philip Morris (PM -2.96%) rose last month after the tobacco company seemed to benefit from a shift in market sentiment as investors prepared for higher interest rates. Such an environment favors high-yield dividend payers and cash flow machines like Philip Morris. According to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock finished December up 11%.
As you can see from the chart below, Philip Morris gained steadily over the course of the month.
So what
Oddly, the news out on Philip Morris during the month was mostly negative. On Dec. 1, the company said it was lowering its full-year EPS guidance due to a stronger dollar, reducing it from $6.01-$6.06 to $5.98-$6.03, though it kept its currency-neutral forecast the same. Philip Morris only operates outside of the U.S., the result of its split from Altria in 2008, so the company is sensitive to currency fluctuations.
Image source: Getty Images.
Despite the modest cut, shares actually climbed 1% that day, even as the S&P 500 fell sharply on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about tapering its bond-buying program. Those remarks indicated that the central bank was preparing to tighten its monetary policy, which favors dividend payers and value stocks like Philip Morris because it makes near-term profits more valuable.
On Dec. 7, Philip Morris made a court filing asking for an emergency order to continue importing IQOS, its heat-not-burn tobacco product. However, it was denied the following day, meaning that the company's plans for its next-gen product in the U.S. remain on hold.
While the stock fell slightly on that news, it brushed that off and continued to climb for most of the rest of the month, buoyed by Powell's announcement that the Fed could raise rates as many as three times in 2022.
Now what
Philip Morris has been mostly forgotten by investors that have become increasingly focused on tech stocks, including the FAANG names that have driven the market higher. However, the company continues to deliver solid results in spite of the overall decline in cigarette consumption. In 2021, it's on track for a 13%-14% increase in currency-neutral EPS, and currency-neutral revenue grew 7.6% through the first three quarters of the year to $8.1 billion. Though those numbers are coming off a weak 2020 when performance was impacted by the coronavirus, that's still solid growth for an industry supposedly in decline.
In 2022, the company could get another tailwind from rising interest rates as well.
