It's February, and that means lots of earnings report news. Many stocks report fourth-quarter earnings this time of year, and in this volatile market, these can have a significant effect on each company's stock price.
Etsy (ETSY -3.65%), Airbnb (ABNB -6.47%), and Roku (ROKU -2.62%) are three top growth stocks that are set to report their latest earnings at the end of the month. Investors looking into these three stocks should expect that the reports will influence their stock prices significantly in the run-up to release and in the aftermath. Let's take a closer look at each and see why February will have such an effect.
1. Etsy: Moving beyond the pandemic
Etsy was a breakout stock during the pandemic, gaining 301% in 2020. And unlike many top pandemic stocks, which tanked last year, it gained another 23% in 2021. Investors appear to be confident in Etsy's continued success, and for good reason.
Etsy is an e-commerce marketplace for vintage and handmade products. Prior to the pandemic, it was growing revenue at a double-digit percentage pace and mostly appealed to a niche customer base of do-it-yourselfers and people looking for customer or vintage products. It rose to prominence at the beginning of the pandemic when people flocked to the site for hand-sewn masks, but it has now solidified its place as a destination for exclusive goods.
Impressively, sales continue to climb despite stores opening their doors again. Year-over-year growth decelerated last year, but it's still in the double digits. Third-quarter revenue increased 18% over 2020, as did gross merchandise sales (GMS).
There are several catalysts for growth, both internal and external. New customers are still joining the platform, with another 7 million added in Q3. But active customers are playing a significant role. In the third quarter, GMS per active customer increased 20% year over year to $132. This is an important part of how the company will keep growing in the future. The top sales category, by far, is home furnishings and accessories, which accounted for about half of total GMS in the third quarter. A growing housing market is one huge tailwind for Etsy that is likely to persist for some time.
In the fourth-quarter report (scheduled for release Feb. 24), watch for continued double-digit growth. Heading into 2022, as the company has a new opportunity to beat comps that were less spectacular, we may see comps growth accelerate. Management is guiding for 10% revenue growth at the midpoint for the fourth quarter, and since Etsy deals with small, domestic businesses, it's not likely to be affected much by supply chain issues. Wall Street's analysts' average for earnings per share (EPS) is $0.76, or about 30% lower than last year. This includes pressure from recent acquisitions as well as investments in the business.
2. Airbnb: Meeting demand in new areas
Airbnb's stock price is more or less where it started when it debuted on the stock market at the end of 2020. That's due to a combination of excellent operating results, which sent the stock higher, and a skyrocketing valuation, which sent it back lower. Even at the current price, shares trade at 98 times forward one-year earnings, which isn't cheap. But it represents investor confidence as travel restrictions continue to ease globally, and Airbnb is demonstrating that it can perform well under adverse conditions.
That company has completely erased pandemic declines, posting record revenue of $2.2 billion in the third quarter, a 67% increase year over year. And it managed that feat despite continued travel restrictions.
Airbnb's model, which supports rentals in both urban and suburban locations, helped it grow as travelers chose more domestic and suburban getaways. The work-from-home trend also lent itself to longer-term stays, where people could work from any location. This continues to be a big growth driver, and the company announced last week that CEO Brian Chesky would be living in different Airbnb rentals this year to get hands-on experience in this crucial area.
Things are looking even better for the company going forward for two core reasons. Travel should continue to resume, and it's improving its features to drive more hosts, more guests, and higher sales. In an interesting partnership, Airbnb and Etsy are working together on a project called The Art of Hosting, which encourages Airbnb hosts to find special and budget-friendly decor for their rentals.
Management is expecting revenue of about $1.43 billion at the midpoint for the fourth quarter when it reports earnings on Feb. 24, or around 66% higher than 2020. The average consensus on Wall Street is for EPS of $0.03, after a loss last year. Investors can expect great things from Airbnb in 2022 and beyond.
3. Roku: A better streaming model?
Roku has been facing some serious headwinds as streaming competition has increased and last year faced tough comps from the year before. It's also been dealing with supply chain issues for its device manufacturing segment. But these issues are temporary and Roku is still an excellent company with tons of future potential.
Roku makes streaming devices, which disappointed recently as global supply chain disruptions meant fewer device sales. Player revenue decreased 26% in the third quarter. But Roku's more important segment is its platform business, which involves ad sales for its streaming channels and third-party relationships. This segment continued to grow throughout last year, increasing 82% in the third quarter.
There are several reasons this is an integral part of Roku's wide opportunity. Advertisers have moved over to streaming as viewers continue to "cord-cut" and shift their viewing hours from traditional television to streaming channels. More in its favor is that Roku operated a free, ad-powered streaming network that doesn't require a subscription. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that many streaming companies are having trouble retaining subscribers who join for a particular movie.
But while companies such as Netflix and Disney have been posting underwhelming subscriber additions, Roku doesn't rely on subscribers to power revenue. Active accounts increased 23% year over year in the third quarter, and streaming hours decreased over the second quarter -- they were up 21% year over year. That points to some normalization and people getting out of their homes after lockdowns for entertainment, but also to Roku becoming an increased part of a daily lifestyle. These are the metrics that drive advertising spending, which should continue to increase.
Management is guiding for revenue to increase 36% year over year in the fourth quarter when it reports earnings on Feb. 17, and the average EPS consensus on Wall Street is $0.07 versus $0.49 last year. 2022 should bring even more growth and value for investors.