Whether you realize it or not, stock market corrections, and even crashes, are an inevitable part of the investing cycle. Over the past six-plus weeks, the broader market has undergone its steepest decline since the initial wave of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.
But when volatility picks up, opportunity knocks for long-term investors. Every single crash or correction throughout history has eventually been erased by a bull-market rally. This means great businesses may be trading at a discount right now.
According to a select group of analysts and investment banks, the latest correction could yield massive upside for a trio of supercharged growth stocks. If Wall Street's high-water price targets come to fruition, these fast-paced companies could rocket higher by 126% to as much as 248% over the next 12 months.
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Etsy: Implied upside of 126%
First up is e-commerce platform Etsy (ETSY -0.48%), which has grown its sales from around $600 million in 2018 to an expected $2.3 billion in 2021. According to Nicholas Jones of Citigroup, Etsy has the potential to reach $320 a share, which would represent upside of up to 126% over the coming year.
If there's a prevailing concern about the company, it's undoubtedly what growth might look like after the pandemic ends. It's no secret that Etsy benefited immensely from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Lockdowns during the initial waves coerced more people than ever to buy products online. This included face coverings, which provided a tangible boost to the total gross merchandise sales traversing the platform. The fear is that once the pandemic ends, Etsy's sales growth will slow and its valuation multiple will contract.
But Etsy has three catalysts working in its favor that suggest $320 is a possibility -- probably not within a year, but at some point in the future.
To begin with, consumers have continually spent more online over the past decade. According to Digital Commerce 360, annual year-over-year online sales growth has ranged between 12.6% and 15.6% since 2012, with one exception -- 2020, which saw 31.8% year-over-year sales growth. This bodes well for Etsy's online marketplace.
Second, Etsy does a fantastic job of personalizing its platform. Etsy's marketplace is comprised of small merchants, and many of them produce unique or customized products. This distinction means the company doesn't have many direct competitors.
And third, it's effectively converting casual shoppers into habitual buyers. A habitual buyer makes six or more purchases over 12 months and spends at least $200. In the September-ended quarter, the number of habitual buyers soared 65% from the prior-year period. Merchants will spend big to get their ads in front of these habitual buyers; this is ultimately what can push Etsy's share price to $320.
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Roku: Implied upside of 235%
Another supercharged growth stock with enormous upside, at least according to one Wall Street analyst, is television-streaming platform Roku (ROKU -1.60%). Based on the $550 price target issued by Tom Forte of DA Davidson, Roku offers upside of 235% over the coming 12 months.
Though $550 is a big number, investors should realize that Roku has retraced significantly from its all-time high of $490.76 (it closed this past weekend at $163.94). This weakness seems to be caused by the Federal Reserve and rapidly rising inflation.
Roku has been hurt in the short term by slowing sales of smart TVs, which have become pricier. Additionally, valuation multiples for growth stocks often contract when the Federal Reserve enters a monetary-tightening cycle. While these near-term concerns are weighing on Roku, there are two seemingly unstoppable trends working in the company's favor.
One would be America's consistent cord-cutting. Based on data from NScreenMedia.com, the number of U.S. households with cable, satellite, or telcoTV services has plummeted by over 21 million to 75.6 million in a four-year time frame. Comparatively, the number of U.S. households without any of these traditional services has increased to over 50 million.
These figures clearly show that consumers want to dictate their content packages, rather than have cable companies offer take-it-or-leave-it-styled bundles. With free and paid content options, Roku users are being given the choices they crave.
The second unstoppable trend that'll benefit Roku even more than cord-cutting is the ongoing shift to digital programmatic ads. As consumers push away from traditional cable and satellite providers and toward connected TV/over-the-top solutions, advertisers are adjusting how they reach users. Roku's growing user base is giving the company more pricing power with advertisers, which is resulting in significantly higher average revenue per user, despite slower user growth in the past couple of quarters.
As long as these two trends continue -- and there's no indication they won't -- Roku has an opportunity to head much higher over the long run.
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Novavax: Implied upside of 248%
The third supercharged growth stock with incredible upside over the next 12 months is biotech-stock Novavax (NVAX -3.74%). The high-water price target on Novavax comes from analyst Mayank Mamtani of B. Riley, who believes shares can reach $315. This would represent a cool 248% increase.
But similar to Roku, Novavax's share price has fallen off a cliff recently. Less than two months ago, shares were as high as $236, on an intraday basis. This past weekend, they closed at $90. Investors have been concerned with the company's delayed emergency-use authorization (EUA) filings for its COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373, as well as its slow vaccine production ramp-up.
What's important to recognize is that both of these issues can be resolved in mere months. In fact, Novavax has filed for EUA or been granted approval in a number of key markets worldwide since the beginning of November.
Another key selling point for Novavax is the efficacy of its COVID-19 vaccine. To date, three major studies have been run. In March and June of last year, the company unveiled the results of two large studies in the U.K. and U.S./Mexico that produced respective vaccine efficacies of 89.7% and 90.4%. More recently, the company announced an 82% vaccine efficacy in adolescents against the delta variant.
The point is that only three vaccines have hit the 90% vaccine efficacy mark, and Novavax's NVX-CoV2373 is one of them. This should allow the company to become a leader in the global-inoculation campaign.
It's also looking likely that COVID-19 will be deemed an endemic illness. Instead of Novavax benefiting from a one-time sales pop, it has an opportunity to be a leader in providing booster shots, variant-specific vaccines, and maybe even combination vaccines (e.g., influenza and COVID-19). In other words, Novavax is potentially sitting on a recurring revenue gold mine.
While $315 might be asking a bit much over the next year, it's a very reasonable multiyear price target, given NVX-CoV2373's global potential.
