It's been a tough past 12 months for Novavax (NVAX) as the biotech company saw its shares plummet nearly 70%. There are several factors behind this poor performance. For instance, the company ran into several delays in its quest to apply for Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for its COVID-19 vaccine candidate, NVX-CoV2373.
Meanwhile, other companies were dominating the coronavirus vaccine market. The recent sell-off driven by marketwide worries probably didn't help the biotech either. Thankfully, Novavax has now earned EUA in many countries, including those in the European Union, and it has officially filed for authorization in the U.S.
In addition to these developments, there are other reasons to be enthusiastic about Novavax's future. Here are two of them.
1. NVX-CoV2373 could help increase vaccination rates
It's no secret that many Americans have been hesitant to get themselves and their loved ones vaccinated against COVID-19. But if we take the results of a recent poll at face value, many of them could be more likely to do so if they had access to vaccines like Novavax's. The poll in question was commissioned by Ocugen and conducted by The Harris Poll, a research and analytics company.
According to the poll, 73% of Americans would like COVID-19 vaccine options developed through more "traditional" methods. As a reminder, some of the coronavirus vaccine market leaders were produced using mRNA, a relatively new method. By contrast, both Novavax's and Ocugen's candidates fit the more traditional methods of developing vaccines.
The poll also found that 40% of parents with unvaccinated children under 18 would be more likely to get the jab for their kids if they had access to one of these traditional vaccines. Lastly, 38% of parents with children under 5 claim they won't vaccinate their child with the currently available vaccines. Even though Ocugen commissioned this poll, its results are arguably much better for Novavax.
Ocugen is nowhere close to earning approval for its candidate in the U.S. while Novavax has already filed an EUA and is awaiting an answer from regulators. Let's not forget that last year, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that those who had received a two-dose regimen of NVX-CoV2373 as part of a late-stage clinical trial would be considered fully vaccinated.
Image source: Getty Images.
Regulators in the U.S. already hold Novavax's candidate in high esteem, and the product should have no trouble earning authorization. And once it does, it could carve out a solid niche for itself, according to this recent poll.
2. Novavax's flu candidate could be a long-term winner
While Novavax has focused on its coronavirus vaccine in the past couple of years, it had another promising candidate under its belt before the pandemic. That was NanoFlu, a flu vaccine for adults 65 and older. In March 2020, the company announced the result of a late-stage clinical trial for NanoFlu.
The study pitted Novavax's candidate against Fluzone, a leading flu vaccine marketed by Sanofi. NanoFlu achieved its primary endpoint during the trial: non-inferior immunogenicity (the ability to trigger an immune response in the body) compared to Fluzone. NanoFlu also proved safe during the trial.
The flu still claims many lives every year, primarily among older citizens. NanoFlu could be a welcome addition to the fight against this potentially deadly disease. The flu vaccine market is expected to continue growing in the coming years. NanoFlu earned the Fast Track designation from the FDA, a recognition reserved for drugs or vaccines that fit an unmet medical need or that has proven to be clinically superior to current options for said need.
Once NanoFlu finally earns approval, expect the vaccine to be highly successful on the market.
A great time to buy
Novavax's financial results should improve in 2022 as the company sees more revenue from NVX-CoV2373. Analysts expect the biotech to record $4.5 billion in revenue this year as well as earnings per share of $25.03. While the company has yet to record its financial results for the fourth quarter and full-year 2021, it reported $924.1 million in revenue for the first three quarters of last year along with a net loss per share of $12.13.
Analysts expect the company to end the year with total revenue of $1.36 billion and a net loss per share of $12.69. Novavax will almost certainly improve those figures this year. In the long run, the company can count on NanoFlu and other candidates -- including a combined COVID-19 and flu vaccine it is working on -- to propel it to even greater heights.
That's why this biotech stock looks like a buy, especially after the pounding it has taken in the stock market recently.
