If you had invested $100,000 in Tesla (TSLA 12.06%) two years back, your investment would have grown by more than 10 times to $1.2 million today. Early Tesla investors are surely enjoying the stock's dramatic rise. But if you are among the ones who missed investing earlier, you must be wondering if it is already too late to invest in the electric vehicle (EV) pioneer.
Let's discuss if it still makes sense to buy the stock.
Tesla continues to grow
Founded in 2003, Tesla made its first annual profit, $721 million, in 2020. In 2021, the company's profit surged 665% to $5.5 billion. At the same time, its revenue grew 71% for the year. The strong growth was supported by an 87% increase in vehicle deliveries in 2021.
A Tesla Model Y. Image source: Tesla.
Most investors and analysts agree that Tesla is very likely to continue growing its vehicle deliveries. To that end, the company is opening new factories; it started deliveries from its German factory on Tuesday and is expected to open its Texas factory soon. In short, Tesla is well on its way to becoming one of the largest automakers in the world.
And the company has managed to distinguish itself from traditional automakers by generating high margins.
TSLA profit margin (quarterly). Data by YCharts.
Ford's high margin in the chart above is attributable to a gain relating to its Rivian investment. It reported an adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and tax) margin of 5.4% for the fourth quarter. So Tesla's profit margin in the latest quarter well exceeded that of traditional automakers.
Those high margins can be attributed to several factors. The first one is high-margin services, including full self-driving (FSD) features and over-the-air software updates, which command higher profits than traditional vehicle sales. Other factors include high vertical integration, an absence of a dealer network, and low marketing expenses.
Innovation is Tesla's key differentiator
Despite the high growth, at a $1 trillion market capitalization, value-focused investors are understandably wary of Tesla. But the stock has defied traditional valuation metrics so far. The big question is: Can it continue to do so?
While no one can answer that question conclusively, I'm inclined toward a yes. Apart from high margins and scale, some other factors could support Tesla's valuation in the future. The top one is the automaker's FSD feature.
Tesla already has nearly 60,000 vehicles in its FSD beta program. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has awarded the vision-only FSD version in certain Tesla models a score of "superior" in collision avoidance and has given it a Top Safety Pick+, the highest possible rating.
The company could have significant potential to expand its margins if its FSD feature shapes up as the company is hoping. Though there are other companies working on autonomous driving -- such as Alphabet with its Waymo and General Motors with its Cruise -- Tesla could have an edge. With the large number of vehicles in use, it could have vastly more data to train its program than its competitors have. And FSD features developed in-house will again tap into the benefits of vertical integration. It could even offer the feature for a fee to other automakers. But this is just speculation and may not turn out as expected.
Though it could be difficult to imagine what Tesla will do next, its growth hinges on innovation. And the company seems to have no dearth of it so far.
Should you buy Tesla stock now?
Tesla's higher margins give some credibility to the reasoning that it should be valued as a technology stock.
TSLA market cap. Data by YCharts.
Tesla's high earnings growth makes its forward price/earnings-to-growth (PEG) ratio attractive, despite its high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio.
TSLA PE ratio (forward 1 year). Data by YCharts.
A PEG ratio compares a stock's P/E to the expected growth in its earnings. All other things being equal, the stock of a company growing its earnings at a higher rate is expected to trade at a higher P/E ratio.
Tesla generated $5.5 billion in net income in 2021, selling nearly 1 million EVs. As the company's sales rise, its profits should increase proportionally, if the company maintains its margins. When that happens, Tesla stock's current valuation will start to make sense in retrospect. That's because the stock price will have likely risen more, making valuation incomprehensible again at that point in future!
In short, while Tesla stock might not generate the 10-bagger returns it did in the past two years, it looks well positioned to generate market-beating returns in the years to come. So it's likely not too late to add this top stock to your portfolio.
