The past six months have been a turbulent ride for investors in Sea Limited (SE 1.20%), a mobile gaming and e-commerce company -- shares of Sea are down over 60% from the all-time high recorded in Nov. 2021. And to add to investor worries, the company just announced it is shutting down its e-commerce operation in India.
These recent headwinds may worry some investors enough to stay away from the stock, but for those with patience, Sea presents a great opportunity.
Image source: Getty Images.
Is international expansion hitting a roadblock?
Sea has shrewdly established the key pillars of its business -- Garena, Shopee, and Sea Money -- to take advantage of three global megatrends: gaming, e-commerce, and digital financial services, respectively. The company established its roots in Southeast Asia and quickly emerged into a global player, extending its presence into South America and Europe.
Its global expansion seemed to be going well, but on March 6, Sea announced that it was closing its Shopee business in France, which was a surprise for investors but largely viewed as a mere blip in the long-term plan. The news that really raised investors' eyebrows came on March 28 when Sea announced it is pulling the curtains on its e-commerce operations in India.
Why would Sea exit potentially one of the largest markets in the world and derail its growth prospects? In the backdrop of its recent stock performance -- and the growing uncertainty around the economic environment with rising inflation and a major war -- many investors may be losing faith in the company.
Digging deeper may offer some clues
The seeds of Sea's exit from India may have been sown around Feb. 2022. The Indian government, citing national security and user data privacy concerns, banned 54 Chinese mobile apps. This ban included Free Fire, Garena's wildly popular battle royale mobile game. The immediate question from many familiar with Sea was: Why was Free Fire banned, when Sea is a Singaporean company, not a Chinese one.
One likely reason is that Tencent Holdings, the Chinese entertainment giant, has an 18.7% stake in Sea. That relationship likely raised enough red flags for the Indian government. It is interesting to note regulators permitted Free Fire Max, the premium version of Free Fire, to continue operations in India.
So how does the above event lead to Sea's India exit for Shopee? Free Fire is at the center of Sea's playbook of international expansion -- the company attracts a large user base with its engrossing video game, learns about users' online habits, and creates opportunities to promote its e-commerce and digital payment services. Additionally, Garena designed Free Fire to run flawlessly even on low-end smartphones, ensuring the game can reach the majority of the population in developing countries.
Free Fire Max doesn't have the same reach as it requires mobile phones with higher-end configurations. Not having Free Fire to lay the foundation in India threw a wrench in Sea's proven formula for expansion.
Finally, no one knows how the political situation between India and China may unfold. India may not ban Shopee today, but that doesn't mean it won't do so in the future. For Shopee to succeed in this highly competitive market, it would need to invest significantly, and the risk underlying that investment is simply too high. All factors considered, Sea's move to shutter its e-commerce operation in India looks like a smart and proactive business decision.
Robust execution and long runway bode well
Sea's founder and CEO Forrest Li has led the company brilliantly. Gamers now enjoy Free Fire in over 130 countries as Shopee launched in four countries in Latin America, three countries in Europe, and in China -- all in the past two and a half years. Free Fire has been the highest-grossing mobile app for 10 consecutive quarters in Southeast Asia and Latin America, according to data.ai. Sea's total revenue grew a whopping 128% in 2021 to reach $10 billion. Gross profits for the same period increased 189% to $3.9 billion.
The company is investing heavily to expand into new markets, and as a result, net losses also grew 26% during the year to $2.0 billion. However, Li believes that by 2025, the cash generated by Shopee and Sea Money, the primary beneficiaries of Sea's investments, collectively will enable these two businesses to substantially self-fund their own long-term growth.
The global opportunity for Sea remains large. Southeast Asia, Sea's core market, is one of the world's fastest-growing regions with a population rising over 50% faster than the United States' and a GDP increasing more than twice as quickly. An expanding middle-class, rising average household incomes, and rapidly spreading cellphone and internet usage are creating more shoppers in the seven Southeast Asian countries where Sea operates.
The company is also gaining major traction in Brazil, the sixth-largest country by population. Shopee Brazil recorded more than 140 million orders in the fourth quarter, growing at close to 400% year over year. The company is also making headways in other South American countries.
Despite shutting down its e-commerce operation in India, Sea is projecting Shopee's revenue to grow 76% in 2022, while Sea Money grows 155%. These are very impressive numbers that underscore Sea's global scale and its ability to overcome hurdles in its growth trajectory.
Now may be a good time to board the ship
Management is forecasting a decline in bookings for Garena this year, which is understandable as the company faces the near-term headwinds of reopening economies across the world and Free Fire's ban in India. But Li remains aspirational and focused on the long-term prospects of the company.
Responding to the over 65% drop in the company's share price, Li assured employees in an email: "Do not fear: we are in a strong position internally, and we are clear on our next steps. This is short-term pain that we have to endure to truly maximise our long-term potential." Lee went on to say: "The scale of our ambition remains unchanged: to make a long-lasting mark in history."
Sea has successfully entered multiple international markets. The company is carefully assessing its opportunity in each region and making shrewd decisions to either expand or exit those markets. Sea's strategy of failing fast leads to efficient capital allocation for the company and bodes well for its future. It is still executing well, and despite its exit from India has a long runway in front of it.
Data by YCharts.
As a result of the sell-off, shares are trading at a three-year low price-to-sales valuation of 6.6 as of this writing. Taking a small position in Sea should serve patient investors with a long-term focus very well.
