Peloton's (PTON 9.89%) stock has taken a beating over the past year, but can it rebound? In this video clip from "The Rank" on Motley Fool Live, recorded on March 28, Fool.com contributors Travis Hoium and Matt Frankel share their thoughts on what could help the exercise company get back on track and be sustainable on a long-term basis.
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Travis Hoium: Peloton down 75% over the last year, so absolutely gotten crushed in the market. I don't need to go over exactly the history of why. But my argument for why this is a great company going forward is, this is to me another example of a company that before the pandemic was interesting now it's a much bigger much more established company, thinking about how well-known their brand is today.
But the stock I believe is down over that period of time, I'm going back as far as I can here, it's about flat, from where it would've IPO'd. So on this wild ride. But over that period of time, we have also seen revenue surge. Let's see here, 352% since they came public, so much bigger company than they were.
One of the things with these moonshot ideas is, what's your core? What's going to hold you together? To me, Peloton it's all about brand, and I always have a hard time assessing what brand is worth or with a company like Peloton, I can't get over the fact that people have one, I have one I love it, I love the instructors. I don't use it as much as I should probably like everybody paying for workout subscriptions, but I just think there is too much there to ignore as an investor.
They have a lot of problems but they've changed their CEO. They're now starting to rethink their business model. How do we take the core that's really successful and actually turn it into a long-term business? Definitely high risk, but I think very high reward for a company like Peloton and when you start with that brand, I just can't get over that.
Matt Frankel: Yeah, I piggyback on that because we prerecorded an episode for the spring cleaning round table and Peloton was my spring cleaning stock, the one I would get rid of, just to give full disclosure.
But there's a few things that concern me about the business. Just like Travis, there's a Peloton in the room right above me right now. I think I put these pandemic plays in two baskets. One is companies that took something that already was terrible and permanently made it better, I put DocuSign (DOCU 6.71%) in that basket. It's already a pain to sign documents before the pandemic.
Then I look at companies that made a temporary solution and I put Peloton in there. People like working out in person. They just do. I think on another show, I was on with Jamie, you mentioned that when you go on vacation, you go to the gym. That's something you won't give up even if there's a Peloton in your Airbnb. I like that too.
I work out at a company called Orange Theory Fitness and they are studios. I wouldn't buy their equipment and put it in my house. I want to go to the studio. The Peloton was a great substitute while things were shut down. I'm wondering if that might be a focus of theirs going forward.
I know before the pandemic Peloton sold bikes to gyms. I have a YMCA membership because my kids go swimming there. There are two Peloton bikes there. That was a focus area before the pandemic and opening studios of their own, the Peloton studios.
I'm wondering if they're going to put a little more emphasis on that now. But I'm not convinced that this business really has long-term growth power from here. That's just kind of where I'm at.