Telehealth company Hims & Hers Health (HIMS -1.90%) recently burst onto the healthcare scene, launching in late 2017 and conducting more than 5 million consultations with consumers in less than five years.
The telehealth provider doesn't look like your typical healthcare app, however. Hims & Hers doubles as a consumer brand with careful branding, dressed-up packaging, and a complete wholesale strategy that puts its products in stores across America.
Hims & Hers is putting its spin on the multi-trillion-dollar healthcare industry. However, it's still a new face to investors after going public via a merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) early last year; the stock's been a disappointment since falling below its $10-per-share SPAC price.
As the stock works to rebound from its lows, here are three things that smart investors are watching.
1. It could easily beat 2022 revenue estimates
Hims & Hers has grown like wildfire over the past several years; revenue has increased an average of 117% per year from its first full year in business in 2018 to its most recent full year, 2021. And it's not like current momentum is weak; Hims & Hers grew revenue by 83% year over year to $272 million in 2021.
Image source: Getty Images.
Such strong growth makes the company's 2022 guidance so head-scratching. Management is guiding for between $365 million and $385 million in 2022, a 41% increase at the high end. If the numbers fall this way, this would mean that growth is dramatically slowing down -- which is not what any shareholder wants.
But before panicking, investors should look back at the company's past performance. As a public company, it's beaten analysts' revenue estimates in all five quarters. In its Q4 2020 earnings report, management initially set 2021 revenue expectations for between $195 million and $205 million. Actual 2021 revenue eventually came in at $272 million, way ahead of that goal.
Of course, the company could fall short of its guidance; anything is possible. However, it seems more likely that management prefers to underpromise and overdeliver. I think the current business momentum it has, including wholesaler partnerships struck throughout the year, will be among the things that drive performance past expectations again in 2022.
2. Wholesale could squeeze profit margins
Hims & Hers leadership has emphasized that a wholesale presence -- getting products into stores where consumers can see them, interact with them, and try them out of curiosity -- is essential for sales efforts.
The company has struck deals with several major retailers, and since many of those were in the second half of 2021, investors could start to see some results in 2022. Currently, just 5% of revenue comes from wholesale channels; I think this will quickly increase because of the size of the wholesale channel push, including a presence with Amazon, Target, and other retailers.
Shareholders will want to see how wholesale revenue impacts profit margins. The vast majority of sales are direct-to-consumer right now, driving excellent gross profit margins of 75%. A wholesaler will command a lower price to have room to mark it up and make a profit.
Management feels that the increased exposure and resulting sales will outweigh any pressure put on margins, but investors will need to see how this plays out.
3. Shareholders shouldn't worry about a share offering
Hims & Hers isn't profitable yet although that's typical for young, rapidly growing companies. The good news is that management hasn't burned through its cash as quickly as some other companies that went public through SPAC mergers.
Total cash, equivalents, and short-term investments are just shy of $250 million while the company itself had $115 million in operating losses in 2021. If things remain "as is" in the business, that's enough cash to endure similar losses in 2022 and still have more than $100 million in capital.
2021 was Hims & Hers' first year as a public company, which often includes stock-based compensation for executives and employees, a reward for bringing the business to the public markets. The company spent $67 million for that purpose in 2021, but it should decline in the future -- thus, helping reduce operating costs.
So for now, it doesn't seem that an equity raise, in which the company might issue new stock to raise cash, is something that investors need to worry about much.
