Several automakers have put their electric truck plans on the back burner due to semiconductor supply shortages. Tesla, for example, has delayed mass production of its Semi truck to 2023 citing supply chain constraints. The chip shortage, coupled with rising costs of key metals used in batteries, has opened a window of opportunity for fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) makers.
Fuel cell truck maker Hyzon Motors (HYZN -2.56%) believes that when it comes to heavy-duty vehicles, hydrogen has some distinct benefits over batteries. Let's take a look at whether fuel cells can beat batteries in this transport segment.
Charging infrastructure
To begin with, the first disadvantage of battery electric trucks is they require a far greater number of battery-charging stations than hydrogen refueling stations for the same number of truck stops.
Image source: Hyzon Motors.
Hyzon estimates that the number of charging outlets needed may be six to 12 times more than the number of hydrogen pumps for around 2,000 truck stops. Moreover, the charging time, even using a fast charger, would potentially be 60 to 90 minutes. In comparison, hydrogen refueling time is already just 10 to 15 minutes now. Moreover, high-capacity fast chargers for trucks are not only far more expensive than regular chargers, but also create a substantial grid burden.
Rising metal prices
Geopolitical factors and supply chain hurdles are contributing to a rise in prices of key metals used in batteries. Rising commodity prices are impacting battery prices negatively.
Image source: Statista.
For example, the price of a car with a 50 kWh (kilowatt-hour) battery has dropped by roughly $53,400 between 2010 to 2021. However, no further drop in battery price is expected in 2022, due to high commodity prices. This factor again favors the hydrogen-powered trucks that Hyzon offers.
What's more, the demand for key metals from the electric vehicle segment is expected to continue rising in the coming years.
Image source: Statista.
So, moving away from oil is resulting in increased dependence on scarce metals. Additionally, higher electricity costs may favor FCEVs in some regions like Europe.
The future of fuel cell trucks
In a nutshell, higher infrastructure needs, rising commodity prices and demand, and electricity and chip shortages are top challenges restricting growth of battery use in the heavy-duty segment. Hyzon, Nikola, Daimler, and Volvo are among the companies betting on hydrogen for long-haul trucks.
Though fuel cell trucks seem to offer some advantages over battery-powered trucks, their growth may be hampered by the restricted development of refueling infrastructure, improved battery performance, and potentially lower costs.
This could lead to two potential outcomes. One, both hydrogen and battery trucks grow, with hydrogen trucks preferred in certain segments like long haul or certain geographies. Two, further cost reductions and improving efficiencies make battery trucks much more popular, making FCEVs redundant. Ultimately, the growth in the adoption of fuel cell trucks will be a key factor in deciding Hyzon's fate.
