Ready or not, the bear market has arrived for high-growth tech stocks. Although tech stocks have been a pillar for Wall Street since the end of the Great Recession, both the Nasdaq Composite and Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF are more than 20% off their all-time highs and in official bear market territory.
While the unpredictability and velocity of downside moves during a bear market can be scary, history has shown time and again that putting your money to work during these large downdrafts is a smart move. That's because all notable declines are eventually wiped away by bull market rallies -- and Wall Street knows it.
Although its commonplace for Wall Street analysts to be bullish on the tech sector, a few analysts are particularly optimistic about the prospects for three beaten-down growth stocks. If these high-water price targets prove accurate, the following tech stocks could gain as much as 167% over the next year.
Image source: Getty Images.
Snowflake: Implied upside of 167%
First up is cloud data-warehousing company Snowflake (SNOW -1.99%), which has plunged from a $405 intra-day high in November to close at $155.27 this past week. Despite this tumble, Phil Winslow of Credit Suisse foresees Snowflake hitting a fresh high of $415 a share. This would represent upside of 167%, for those of you keeping score at home.
Why $415? According to Winslow, Snowflake is on the leading edge of cloud-native data analytics and should play a key role throughout the entire "data value chain." Winslow believes the company will continue to gain a lot of new customers, and that its superior growth rate can persist longer than many expect.
Aside from its rapid growth rate among cloud stocks, what stands out most about Snowflake is its unique operating model and competitive advantage. For example, Snowflake has opted against the subscriber model that virtually all other cloud players swear by. Instead, it charges customers based on the data they store and the number of Snowflake Compute Credits used. This method is far more transparent and allows the company's customers to better control their costs.
Additionally, Snowflake resolves one of the biggest challenges of the cloud infrastructure landscape: sharing data across competing platforms. Since Snowflake's solutions are built atop existing cloud infrastructure, members are able to seamlessly share data.
The company is also targeting $10 billion in product revenue by fiscal 2029 (calendar year 2028). This would represent a mammoth seven-year jump from $1.14 billion in fiscal 2022 full-year sales.
However, Snowflake is only marginally profitable and has continued to trade at a nosebleed valuation relative to its full-year sales (about 24 times forecast sales in 2023). While a premium does feel warranted given the company's superior growth rate and competitive edge, a tumbling market that's brought traditional fundamental metrics into focus isn't going to help Snowflake's cause. In other words, I don't anticipate Snowflake getting anywhere near Winslow's price target over the next 12 months.
Image source: Getty Images.
Skillz: Implied upside of 155%
Another beaten-down tech stock that at least one Wall Street analyst believes can turn things around is gaming company Skillz (SKLZ -1.63%). Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter has a $5 target on shares of Skillz, which closed last week below $2. If Pachter's target became reality, shareholders would enjoy upside of 155%.
Looking back through Pachter's target history on Skillz won't provide investors any comfort. He and his firm have lowered their price target on Skillz from $34, to $25, to $7.50, and now $5. Nevertheless, Pachter appreciates the company's unique business model and believes it'll lead to a growing number of paying users.
Traditional gaming companies spend boatloads of money and quite a lot of time to develop console, PC, and mobile games. There's absolutely no guarantee that all this money and effort will yield success, which is what makes the game-development landscape so competitive.
Rather than compete against the big boys, Skillz has chosen to be a middleman. The company developed a mobile-gaming platform that allows users to compete against each other for cash prizes. Skillz and the game developer in question are then able to keep a percentage of the cash prize. It's a lot easier (and cheaper) for Skillz to maintain gaming platform infrastructure than it is to develop hit mobile games.
Another reason to be excited about Skillz is the multiyear agreement the company signed with the National Football League (NFL) in February 2021. Under this deal, developers are competing to create NFL-themed mobile games that will debut on the company's gaming platform during the 2022 NFL season. Football happens to be the most-popular sport in the U.S.
But Skillz also has hurdles to overcome. Although the aggregate number of customers paying to play is climbing, the company's expenses have been far too high. As Skillz has pared back its engagement marketing, its growth rate has slowed considerably. With investors focused on profitability as the market corrects lower, Skillz will have to significantly narrow its losses if it has any shot of reaching $5 a share.
Image source: Getty Images.
Okta: Implied upside of 134%
The third tech stock with serious upside potential, according to Wall Street, is cybersecurity company Okta (OKTA -1.79%). Analyst Imtiaz Koujalgi at Guggenheim set a $240 price target on the company in early March, which is 134% higher than the $102.45 Okta's shares closed at this past week.
Although Kouljagi actually lowered Okta's price target by $25/share in March, the analyst pointed to strong billing momentum and all key metrics coming in ahead of Wall Street' expectations when the company reported its fourth-quarter operating results.
The beauty of cybersecurity is that it's evolved into a basic necessity service. No matter how well or poorly the U.S. economy or stock market are performing, hackers and robots don't take a day off from trying to steal enterprise data. This means businesses of all sizes are leaning on third-party identity management solutions now more than ever.
One of the reasons Okta is such a special company is its cloud-native origins and reliance on artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning. By leaning on AI and machine-learning technologies, Okta can more effectively spot and respond to potential threats. Even though cloud-native cybersecurity platforms can be costlier upfront than on-premises solutions, the superior protection provided by cloud-native providers can make them more cost-effective over the long run.
Furthermore, Okta completed its transformative $6.5 billion acquisition of Auth0 one year ago. Although it was a pricey deal, acquiring this former competitor gives Okta a pathway to expand its reach into Europe and other foreign markets.
Similar to Snowflake, the biggest knock against Okta is its lofty valuation relative to sales. Even though shares have lost close to two-thirds of their value in 15 months, Okta is still trading at nine times forecast sales for fiscal 2023. With Wall Street's loss estimates for the company also widening, it's not a great combination during a Nasdaq bear market.
While I do believe cybersecurity is one of the smartest investments over the long run, I doubt Okta's shares will near $240 anytime soon.
