The Nasdaq bear market has seen many once-promising growth stocks tumble heavily this year. It has created some great buying opportunities in the markets for long-term investors. However, there are some stocks I'm not confident will recover anytime soon, and that investors are probably better off avoiding.
Two such stocks that could struggle for a long time to come are Ocugen (OCGN) and Peloton Interactive (PTON -0.98%).
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Ocugen
Biotech stock Ocugen is down a whopping 75% in the past year, which makes the S&P 500's decline of 6% during that time look amazing. With losses that continue to mount and no sales, there hasn't been a whole lot of reason to be bullish on the stock.
The good news for investors is that the company might finally be generating some revenue. Up until now, it has had nothing to show for its agreement with Bharat Biotech to help commercialize the Indian-based company's COVID-19 vaccine, Covaxin. Its agreements were to share in the profits of the vaccine in the Canadian and U.S. markets -- but Covaxin isn't approved for use in either country. In April, however, it also secured the rights for Mexico, a country where the vaccine is approved for use, which could finally lead to revenue.
But it's just a sliver of hope at this point. For one thing, Ocugen will share in the profits that the vaccine generates, not the revenue. I wouldn't hold my breath on this being much of a game changer for the business. Investors are already dumping COVID-19 stocks, including Moderna, which is down close to 50% this year, out of concern about how they will perform in the future. And Ocugen's future is far more questionable than that of a top COVID-19 vaccine maker that has generated billions from its product.
Ocugen has $130 million of cash and cash equivalents on its books as of the end of March. While that's sufficient to manage its current quarterly cash burn of $15 million, it doesn't leave the business with plenty of money to make a big investment or acquisition. And outside of COVID-19, the company's pipeline is thin with the furthest along program being OCU400, a gene therapy treatment for retinal degeneration, and it's only in phase 1/2 trials.
Even if Ocugen starts generating some sales this year, they could be short-lived. And it could be a long time before the company has anything else contributing to the top line. That's why as bad as the healthcare stock is doing right now, with no product to rally around beyond the vaccine and a depleting cash reserve, things may only get worse for investors from here on out.
2. Peloton
Peloton was a stock that surged in popularity during the pandemic. Exercising at home during lockdowns sounded like a great short-term investment idea. Over the long haul, it was questionable whether people would continue to pay more than $1,000 for its high-priced bikes and also pay recurring subscriptions. And now, at a time when inflation is running rampant, it's hard to see a way for the company to get out of its tailspin; in just the past year, its shares are down close to 90%.
It's possible that after five years of restructuring the business and shedding costs, maybe Peloton could turn itself into a more tenable investment. But as of right now, the company has many problems with sales slowing down and the business burning through tons and tons of cash.
Over the nine-month period ended March 31, Peloton burned through roughly $1.7 billion in cash, just from its day-to-day operations. That is a huge problem for a company that as of the end of the period had just $966.2 million in cash. The red flags are all there for investors to see in plain view. Inventories are rising, sales are falling, and the cash burn is high. A big danger for investors at this point is that even if the company starts turning things around, it will need to raise cash to do so, likely in the form of share offerings (i.e., dilution).
Even if you like Peloton stock, the safer strategy would be to wait and see if the company can turn things around, find a way to generate sales growth, and slow its cash burn. Buying before that happens could set your portfolio up for a rough ride and potentially lead to devastating losses.
