Note: This report was revised Friday afternoon based on new information.
Electric vehicle (EV) leader Tesla (TSLA 12.06%) has continued to build on its industry lead recently -- in just the past few months, it opened two new production facilities to grow its global reach.
But it appears that CEO Elon Musk is tapping the brakes. In an internal email Thursday, Musk told his executive team to cut jobs and pause new hiring, according to a report by Reuters. A follow-up email Friday specified the job cuts will be for salaried employees, which includes management and supervisory roles.
With the stock still at an extremely high valuation based on traditional metrics, shareholders might want to look at Musk's comments as a not-so-subtle warning.
Image source: Tesla.
Growing its lead
Tesla opened one of its new plants in Germany this March, marking a key expansion point. The company had been supplying the European market from its plant in Shanghai; now, each of those plants can focus on its own rich customer base. In its 2021 outlook, the International Energy Agency predicted China and Europe would continue to lead global EV sales through the rest of the decade.
Data source: International Energy Agency. Chart by author.
And in April, Tesla began production from its new facility in Texas, its second in the U.S. Both new plants will help the company achieve its production growth plans for an approximately 50% annual increase over the next several years.
But Musk's internal memos may have clouded that goal.
The memo
In an email Thursday titled "pause all hiring worldwide," Musk told his executive team to trim 10% of the company's workforce and put a freeze on hiring, according to Reuters' report. Importantly, Musk did add in his Friday email that the job cuts will apply to salaried workers and "hourly headcount will increase," indicating the new facilities will continue to ramp production to some extent. But Musk seems to feel that the economy is in for a rough road ahead, saying he has a "super bad feeling" about the outlook for the economy.
In its first quarter, Tesla reported automotive sales of more than $15.5 billion, representing an increase of 89% versus the prior-year period. And that was without any significant contribution from the new factories. That came from both an increase in production volume from its Shanghai and California plants, as well as higher prices. But Musk apparently now sees storm clouds on the horizon.
Smart investors pay attention
In addition to the new plants ramping up, Shanghai is just reopening after COVID-19 lockdowns stymied production for many EV makers in recent weeks. So Musk's comments indicate that those production delays didn't put the company behind on delivering orders. At the same time, we don't know which facilities would cut jobs or add hourly workers.
For investors, the takeaway is that Tesla stock could see tough times ahead -- at least for the short term. Tesla shares are already down more than 30% year to date. But they remain richly valued by traditional metrics. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio remains around 100 based on earnings for the past 12 months. That implies investors see significant growth over the coming years. For a leader in a quickly growing industry, those growth expectations would seem to be reasonable, especially with the company itself saying it expects 50% volume growth for several years.
But the new developments could indicate some amount of slowdown on that growth. If Musk's prediction for a slowing economy pans out, the impact on Tesla's share price could be meaningful. That shouldn't bother long-term investors too much, but for those looking to start, or add, positions, there could be much better opportunities coming for Tesla shares at a lower price.
