Few areas of the stock market have been spared in the recent downturn, but growth stocks have been hit particularly hard. Just as one broad indicator of how poorly growth stocks have performed, the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG -0.02%) is down by 28% from its 52-week high, 10 percentage points worse than the S&P 500 has performed. And many popular growth stocks have performed far worse.
That said, it's important to realize that not every beaten-down stock deserves to be trading at such a steep discount. Here are two growth stocks that I own in my personal portfolio that I plan to hold for years to come -- even if the economy falls into a deep recession.
One trend that is bigger than any recession
E-commerce has steadily risen as a percentage of U.S. retail sales over the past couple of decades but still makes up less than 15% of the overall retail landscape. And although its shares have fallen quite a bit, Shopify (SHOP -2.37%) could continue to be an excellent way to play it.
Shopify provides an online store platform for businesses, as well as a full suite of adjacent services that provide most tools businesses need to be successful in e-commerce. This includes payment processing solutions, shipping, installment payment capabilities, and much more. And Shopify is the clear leader in the space – in fact, more e-commerce sales took place through Shopify's platform last year than through Walmart and Best Buy combined.
To be sure, Shopify's revenue could take a hit in a recession, as the company's merchant customers could see sales slow. But with an estimated $160 billion addressable market opportunity and less than $5 billion in revenue over the past four quarters, Shopify could still be in the early stages of realizing its true potential.
Lots of room to grow, and in several industries
MercadoLibre (MELI -1.79%) often gets called the "Amazon of Latin America," but even that doesn't do the company justice. It's more like the Amazon, PayPal, and maybe even the Shopify, Block, and FedEx of Latin America, all in one stock, and at much earlier stages of growth.
In its core e-commerce business, MercadoLibre's marketplace is certainly an impressive one, with $7.7 billion in gross merchandise volume in the first quarter alone. And on the fintech side of the business, the Mercado Pago payment platform is processing over $100 billion in annualized volume.
These dollar amounts may sound enormous (and they are), but they represent roughly 6% and 8% of the volume of Amazon and PayPal, respectively. In addition, MercadoLibre has a large logistics platform (Mercado Envios); a young, fast-growing lending business (Mercado Credito); and several other smaller but high-potential initiatives.
To be sure, we could see sales growth slow in the near term, especially if the economy worsens in MercadoLibre's core Brazilian and Argentinian markets. But this is a powerhouse business that looks like an absolute bargain after the recent declines.
Expect a short-term roller coaster ride
Both of these companies are well run and have unstoppable tailwinds that should help keep their businesses growing for years to come. But to be clear, all could see growth slow down in a recession, and any economic fears could create significant turbulence in the near term.
In short, while I'm confident investors who buy these growth stocks in the downturn will be happy with their decision in a few years, it's wise to expect some volatility in the meantime.
