It sounds a bit strange to hear it standing in the shadow of the market's six-month, 20% tumble, but a handful of stocks are still oddly expensive.
It's not unheard of. There are always at least some tickers that defy the odds as they defy logic, holding up against a brisk headwind. It's a sign that investors -- for whatever reason -- see these stocks as resilient winners. And maybe these buyers will be rewarded for being bold.
If you own or are mulling a position in any of these three names, though, at least give it a second thought. They're each already fighting a valuation battle.
1. Eli Lilly
Shares of drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY 2.66%) have suffered the same occasional tumble that its pharma peers and the broad market have taken this year. It hasn't done any lasting damage, though. Whereas the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 13% year to date and the Dow Jones Pharmaceutical Index is just slightly better than breakeven, Lilly shares are up more than 18% since the end of 2021. That half-year move follows last year's 63% advance.
NYSE: LLY
Key Data Points
Much credit goes to Eli Lilly's COVID-19 treatment combination of bamlanivimab and etesevimab although its diabetes treatment Trulicity has been a heavy hitter as well. Trulicity's 20% year-over-year revenue growth during the first quarter of this year, along with the 81% year-over-year increase in sales of its COVID-19 antibodies, led to a 15% increase in company-wide sales.
And with no end to the coronavirus pandemic on the near-term horizon and no end to the diabetes pandemic long term, investors understandably feel good about the future.
Enough may be enough already, though. Thanks to nearly two years' worth of bullishness, Eli Lilly shares are now valued at 41 times this year's projected profits and priced at a still-frothy 36 times next year's per-share earnings estimates. That's the most the stock has cost in years, and at a time when a revenue slowdown is in the cards. Despite Q1's big top-line pop, the analyst community is still only calling for full-year sales growth of 7% this year before slowing to less than 5% next year.
That slowdown could prompt many of the stock's recent buyers to rethink if it's really worth the price.
2. Rollins
It's not exactly a household name, but you may be more familiar with Rollins (ROL 1.03%) than you realize. This company is parent to several pest control companies, including Northwest Exterminating, Industrial Fumigant, and Clark's Pest Control, just to name a few. You may know it best, however, by its flagship brand, Orkin.
It's a recession-resistant business, to say the least, even if it's not a growth industry. And yet there's more growth here than you might expect. Rollins' revenue is expected to improve by nearly 9% this year and by almost 7% next year. Profits are growing similarly. In fact, not once in the past 12 years has the company reported a year-over-year decline in quarterly revenue, and quarterly operating income growth has been almost as consistent.
This reliability is likely the key reason this stock has performed so well since the early January market-wide stumble that upended most tickers. When a wobbly economy starts to make things uncertain for investors, they start seeking out reliable names -- a so-called "flight to safety" that also catapulted this stock higher in the latter half of 2020.
NYSE: ROL
Key Data Points
Largely overlooked, however, is that even before the market dialed back the rich valuation created back in 2020, investors are pumping it up too much again. The stock's now trading at 48 times this year's projected per-share profits. This is a valuation the stock hasn't historically been able to support for very long in the past. And that makes it at least a little less likely it can do so now.
3. T-Mobile
Finally, add T-Mobile US (TMUS 0.29%) to your list of stocks that are a little -- or maybe even a lot -- too expensive to step into or stick with here.
T-Mobile shares are currently trading at 50 times this year's expected earnings, but at a more palatable 22 times next year's anticipated earnings. That's when a bunch of investments, including 2020's merger with Sprint, should really start to pay off. Perhaps more than that, any headaches and delays linked to COVID-19 and the logistics hurdles prompted by the pandemic should also start clearing up in earnest by then -- at least, maybe.
NASDAQ: TMUS
Key Data Points
Still, T-Mobile is in a business with limited growth potential. Pew Research says 97% of U.S. consumers already own cell phones, and 85% of them are already using smartphones. Moreover, it doesn't pay a dividend, and its projected 2023 P/E ratio is still unusually frothy. Shares of rival wireless service names AT&T and Verizon Communications are only priced at 8.2 and 9.2 next year's expected per-share earnings, respectively, and they both currently sport dividend yields of just over 5%.
Until T-Mobile can offer a clear reason it deserves a premium valuation to its peers, it's a tough stock to own at its current price.
