The stock market is having a rough year, as inflation recently hit a 40-year high, forcing the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase interest rates rapidly. But the core measure of inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is a lagging indicator and might not be the best representation of the real-time environment.
Since March, the prices of key commodities have collapsed from their multi-year highs. Wheat is down 36%, and natural gas has fallen 42%. Both are key inputs in food and energy production, which heavily influence CPI data. In addition, five-year inflation expectations are close to their 2022 lows, implying that high inflation is perceived as a relatively short-term phenomenon.
But it could take months for commodity price drops to feed through to consumers because producers need to work through existing inventory -- which was significantly more expensive a few short months ago. Therefore, it's possible that inflation has already peaked, even though it might not show up in the CPI data until later this year.
If that's the case, it might be time for investors to load up on high-flying growth stocks, which have been crushed amid the inflation-driven tech sell-off. Here are two great picks available at a discount.
1. Advanced Micro Devices
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 0.03%) is at the pinnacle of the semiconductor industry. Its advanced computer chips are responsible for powering some of the most popular consumer products, from computers to game consoles to electric vehicles.
NASDAQ: AMD
Key Data Points
It's also a key player in the data center industry, serving the world's largest cloud computing companies, like Amazon and Alphabet's Google. The data center falls under AMD's enterprise, embedded, and semi-custom segment, which currently comprises 42% of the company's total revenue. Given the cloud services industry could exceed $1.5 trillion in annual value by 2030, it's reasonable to expect providers to invest heavily in hardware as the decade progresses. So, it could make up an even larger share of AMD's sales over time.
AMD grew its total annual revenue at a compound annual rate of 30% between 2016 and 2021. According to analysts' estimates, its revenue could hit $26.3 billion in 2022, which would be an accelerated growth rate of 60% compared to 2021. Remarkably, even as AMD grows larger, it's still picking up momentum. The company is also highly profitable, with $4.3 billion in non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income over the last 12 months.
AMD stock has lost 51% of its value from its all-time high amid the broader bear market in the Nasdaq-100 technology index. Investors have been concerned that high inflation and rising interest rates could dampen consumer demand for big-ticket electronics and, therefore, the chips that power them. If inflation has, in fact, peaked, the current discount in AMD stock presents a great opportunity.
2. Microsoft
Microsoft (MSFT +0.60%) provides investors a perfect blend of exposure to consumers and businesses. The company is a household name, with its Windows operating system and Office 365 document suite in the homes and workplaces of billions of people globally. But the company has grown to become far more than a software provider.
NASDAQ: MSFT
Key Data Points
Despite struggling in the hardware business against mammoth competitors like Apple in the past, Microsoft has built a pipeline of products that continue to grow in popularity. Its Xbox console is one of the world's leading gaming platforms, and its Surface line of notebook computers and devices has grown to become a meaningful contributor to overall revenue. Both brands fall under Microsoft's "more personal computing" segment, which has generated $59 billion in sales over the last 12 months.
But the largest of Microsoft's three business units is actually intelligent cloud, led by the company's flagship Azure cloud services platform. Azure serves at least 95% of the Fortune 500 companies, providing them hundreds of services and solutions ranging from simple data storage to application development tools to advanced artificial intelligence technologies. Over the past year, intelligent cloud has delivered $71 billion in revenue.
Microsoft's diverse mix of revenue streams makes it a great investment in any economic environment, but if inflation begins to fall, it could benefit from a strong uplift in both consumer and business spending. Shares in the company have fallen 23% from their all-time high, but the long-term trend is undeniable, with a 270% gain over the last five years alone. Look for Microsoft to continue rising higher as the high-inflation picture resolves.
