Shares of The Trade Desk (TTD -2.44%) have been trading sharply higher over the last few days. Perhaps some investors are betting the digital-advertising tech company can be a standout next to many advertising peers that have seen their growth rates get slashed. For many companies, an uncertain macroeconomic environment has led to a contraction in advertising spend resembling ad-budget weakness during 2020, when COVID-19-related lockdowns around the world were greatest.
Investors will get some answers about how The Trade Desk is faring next week. The company is scheduled to report its second-quarter results on Aug. 9.
The Trade Desk could report strong growth
Concerns about a deteriorating advertising environment started gaining steam on May 23, when Snap (SNAP 4.71%) warned that the company would miss its revenue and earnings forecast for Q2, citing a macro environment that "deteriorated further and faster than we anticipated." The Snapchat parent's original guidance was for second-quarter revenue to increase at a rate between 20% and 25% year over year, but actual growth for the period ended up coming in at 18%.
While it's still possible that The Trade Desk's second quarter similarly will turn out worse than expected, there's one reason to believe the company may be able to post results that live up to its original forecast. On May 26, the ad-tech company went out of its way to reiterate its guidance for revenue to grow at least 30% to $364 million or more.
This reiterated view was given nearly two full months into the quarter, so The Trade Desk had significant visibility at the time. It may be possible, therefore, that the tech company will actually be able to achieve its original outlook for the quarter.
Still, investors shouldn't get their hopes up. It's also possible that The Trade Desk saw worse-than-expected revenue in the final month of the quarter -- enough to make the company miss its guidance.
Third-quarter guidance is key
Whatever The Trade Desk reports for its second-quarter revenue, investors may be more interested in the company's third-quarter guidance. Some digital advertisers that have already reported their second-quarter results have reported dismal third-quarter forecasts.
While Snap didn't provide third-quarter revenue guidance, Facebook parent Meta said it expected its top line to decline year over year during the quarter, and streaming-TV platform company Roku (ROKU -0.40%) guided for third-quarter revenue to increase just 3% year over year. In its second-quarter earnings call, Roku management said, "Consumers began to moderate discretionary spend, and advertisers significantly curtailed spend in the ad scatter market (TV ads bought during the quarter)."
Given this context, investors will be watching The Trade Desk's third-quarter guidance closely. The current consensus analyst forecast calls for third-quarter revenue of $384 million -- a figure that translates to a year-over-year growth rate of 27%. Some of the analyst estimates going into this consensus may be out of date, however, failing to take into consideration an updated view on the deteriorating macro environment and its impact on ad budgets.
Can the growth stock keep impressing investors and maintain the momentum it has leading up to the report? We'll find out soon. The Trade Desk reports its second-quarter results after market close on Tuesday, Aug. 9.
