The headlines are full of negativity over the economy, which has sent the major market indexes plunging to new lows in 2022. The widely followed S&P 500 index had its worst start to the year in decades, and is currently down 22% year to date.
Predicting the near-term direction of the market is very difficult, but we can be confident about one thing: The markets will rebound and move back toward their all-time highs again. Market downturns have always been followed by longer stretches of rising prices. All you have to do is focus on what companies you want to own, and let the market volatility work itself out.
Following are two discounted growth stocks with bright futures. I can't promise you'll make money on these stocks after one year, but they are likely to deliver good returns over a minimum five-year holding period.
Walt Disney
A $5 investment in Walt Disney (DIS 0.81%) in 1940 would be worth $77,000 today. Disney owns timeless entertainment brands that continue to attract new audiences. The demand for these brands allows it to gradually raise prices on everything from food at theme parks to subscription prices at Disney+. Investing in top consumer brands is one of the simplest ways to grow wealth in the stock market, and that's especially true if you invest at times when the market is most pessimistic about their future.
NYSE: DIS
Key Data Points
The company's direct-to-consumer business is being significantly undervalued by the market. Disney continues to unleash an avalanche of content on Disney+, including Obi-Wan Kenobi and a live-action version of Pinocchio. Over the next few years, more content like this should significantly boost subscriber growth, as it has already.
Disney+ added 14 million subscribers in the most recent quarter. That's a 31% year-over-year increase. The market doesn't give Disney any credit for streaming growth, due to losses on the bottom line from heavy spending on new series. But Netflix shows how profitable Disney+ could be for the company down the road. Netflix generates a high operating margin of 20%, and Disney's top-tier brands will likely have more pricing power than streaming rivals over time.
As CEO Bob Chapek said at a recent Goldman Sachs investor conference, "We have an embarrassment of riches in terms of the plethora of wonderful content that we have coming from all of our creative engines. And so, we're really excited about what's to come to keep fueling that great operating performance."
At the current share price of around $100, Disney stock is selling below the price it traded for when Disney+ was unveiled in April 2019. Wall Street is asleep at the wheel because it's worried about the economy, interest rates, and Disney's bottom line. Sure, Disney's pricing power will be challenged when consumers are pinching their wallets in a weak economy, but recessions are temporary and have always proven to be the best time to invest in top stocks.
Lithia Motors
Lithia Motors (LAD 2.53%) is one of the fastest-growing companies you haven't heard about, and it doesn't make high-tech vehicles that run on banana peels. Lithia sells cars through a growing network of auto stores, and it's very profitable.
NYSE: LAD
Key Data Points
Over the 10 years through 2021, Lithia grew revenue and adjusted earnings at compound annual rates of 23% and 32%, respectively. The stock price followed course, turning a $10,000 investment into $135,000.
More growth is coming. Lithia serves a retail-vehicle industry with over $2 trillion in annual revenue. Management is tackling this opportunity in basically two ways: investing in marketing and acquiring more franchises. It has the largest car inventory in the U.S. for sale online. It focuses on marketing through social media channels; digital advertising made up 87% of its marketing budget last year.
Some companies that use acquisitions as a central growth strategy can run into problems if they're overly eager to expand without focusing on the bottom line. However, Lithia's balanced growth in revenue and profits shows that its management team knows what they're doing. They only acquire profitable businesses that can expand Lithia's proximity to more of the nation's population, while achieving internal return targets on investment.
The company believes it's in the early innings of growth, and the stock looks genuinely cheap at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 6 times this year's earnings estimates. Lithia is targeting adjusted earnings per share of $55 to $60 by 2025, which is based on pre-pandemic profit levels from vehicle sales. That level of earnings could support a share price of $550 to $600 -- more than double the current quote -- if the market assigns a P/E of 10 to those future earnings.
Given Lithia's record of growth and future opportunities to allocate capital at above-average rates of return, a P/E of 15 seems more than justified.
