Marijuana hasn't been a great area for stock investors. Despite several major wins for marijuana advocates on the world stage, such as Thailand's decision to decriminalize cannabis and Canada legalizing cannabis use for recreational purposes among adults, the industry has been a chronic destroyer of value for shareholders ever since the first wave of companies started listing on major U.S. exchanges a little over four years ago.
Cannabis' failure to launch, as an investing vehicle, has myriad causes. The Canadian cannabis market has been fraught with regulatory delays, burdensome regulatory and financial roadblocks, a persistent illegal market, a mismatch between available inventories and consumer demand, questionable managerial decisions, major leadership mistakes stemming from inexperience in the consumer packaged goods space, and a flood of licensed cultivators.
On the U.S. side of the fence, many of these exact same issues, coupled to a highly fragmented regulatory landscape, have aided in crushing stock prices over the last four years.
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A new day may be dawning in pot investing, however. Several top-tier Canadian cultivators have brought in new leaders, and expanded their revenue base to include non-cannabis businesses. An ongoing consolidation phase ought to lead to a better balance between supply and demand in the country. In the U.S., President Biden recently initiated a scheduling review for cannabis, which might lead to the end of federal prohibition within the next six months.
What's the key takeaway? With these early growing pains starting to subside, and the global march toward legalization gaining steam, cannabis has a real shot at morphing into an eye-catching $248 billion market by 2030. For context, 2021 global marijuana sales came in at around $30 billion, according to multiple industry research reports. So, in short, cannabis sales are predicted to exhibit a "hockey stick"-like growth curve over the balance of the current decade.
2 pot stocks to capitalize on this parabolic growth trend
Which pot stocks are in the best position to capture an outsized portion of this exponential growth? While the cannabis stock landscape is still very much in a state of flux, and several non-cannabis companies are likely lurking in the shadows in the event pot becomes federally permissible in the U.S., there are some clear-cut trends investors can bank on right now.
In Canada, OrganiGram Holdings (OGI 1.07%) has been one of the few companies to consistently increase its market share, exhibit fiscal discipline, and cater to consumer preferences by doubling down on quality. Underscoring these key points, OrganiGram has substantially raised its share of the Canadian cannabis market to third place in the most recent quarter, thanks to its cost-effective three-tier growing system and emphasis on product quality (not quantity).
All told, OrganiGram's rare success story should eventually land with investors, even though the company's shares have steadily moved lower in lockstep with the broader cannabis space of late. After all, this beaten-down pot stock has the pieces in place to evolve into a top-tier craft cannabis company, a feature that is highly likely to either spark a buyout or a major partnership at some point down the road. Put simply, this Canadian pot stock comes across as grossly undervalued in light of its strong operating results, rising market share, and dedication to producing world-class products.
On the U.S. front, Curaleaf (CURLF -2.56%) is arguably the best buy within the multi-state operator (MSO) space. Curaleaf currently has operations in 21 states, along with a rapidly growing footprint in Europe. What's more, the company has been generating high single-digit sales growth of late, it has one of the healthiest balance sheets in the industry, and it is easily one of the most profitable cannabis companies in the world.
Despite Curaleaf's impressive fundamentals and strong outlook, the company's shares have nonetheless slid by an unsightly 52% over the past 12 months. Curaleaf's shares, in effect, have been unfairly punished by the market due to the deteriorating fundamentals of its peers. That's an intriguing set up for dyed-in-the-wool value investors. Curaleaf is in no danger of running into a cash crunch or experiencing a slowdown in its core business segments. In fact, the exact opposite appears to be the case in both instances.
So, while Wall Street's consensus price target on this pot stock implies a nearly 80% upside potential over the next 12 months, this stately value projection isn't out of the realm of possibility. Curaleaf's shares have gotten swept up in an unrelenting bear market for cannabis stocks at large, despite the fact that the company is in the midst of a healthy growth spurt. At some point, the market will realize its mistake. Curaleaf stock, in short, is a top rebound candidate based on its solid fundamentals and proven ability to capture market share across a highly varied regulatory landscape.
