Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon, started his 2000 shareholder letter with the word "ouch." The company's stock had fallen more than 80% in the past year, a tough time for shareholders when the dot-com bubble had burst, and Wall Street was selling everything out of fear. But Amazon's business was growing despite the disappointing investment returns. Today, Amazon is one of the world's largest companies, which means that 2000 was a wonderful time to buy shares.
Sound familiar? Just over two decades later, the stock market is again in a tumultuous spot. Growth stocks are again taking it on the chin, including Palantir Technologies (PLTR -1.47%), Zscaler (ZS -1.83%), and Spotify Technology (SPOT -4.34%), down 75%, 58%, and 74% from their respective highs. Despite these steep declines, each stock could make a strong comeback and reward long-term investors. Here is what you need to know.
Building a new world on top of data
Justin Pope (Palantir Technologies): Almost everything you do in life today creates a digital record, and understanding and leveraging this data better than others can drive success in both public and private organizations. Palantir makes custom software solutions for its customers using its proprietary platforms: Gotham specializes in government applications, and Foundry in commercial projects. For example, Palantir helped determine which areas needed the most assistance during Hurricane Sandy in 2012 using GPS data, photos, damage reports, and census/demographics records.
Palantir's relationship with the government remains strong today. It works with various departments, announcing new contracts from the Army and Department of Homeland Security totaling over $200 million just in the past couple of months. This close relationship also makes Palantir reliant on the government, which accounted for 57% of revenue over the first six months of 2022. Palantir must grow its private sector business, and it's doing that -- U.S. commercial revenue grew 120% year over year in the second quarter of this year.
The company is now doing more than $1.7 billion in revenue and converting 15% of that into free cash flow. Palantir uses stock-based compensation to pay its employees, which is a non-cash expense. So while cash profits are positive, the bottom line (net income) is negative $539 million over the past four quarters. Positive free cash flow adds to a balance sheet with $2.4 billion in cash against zero debt. Investors will want to see net income trend toward a positive figure; look for revenue to grow faster than stock-based compensation over the coming years.
This bear market has hammered Palantir's valuation. The stock's price-to-sales ratio (P/S) was more than 40 last year but has fallen to just 9. The company's long relationship with the U.S. government and strong commercial growth underlines the value Palantir's platform creates. The company still has just 304 customers, so there's plenty of room for long-term growth. Palantir could eventually be a very large and influential company if data continues to become a critical asset for organizations worldwide. In that case, investors might look back on 2022 fondly as an opportunity to buy low.
The zero-trust company that deserves your full confidence
Will Healy (Zscaler): The rise of the cloud changed the nature of cybersecurity. Previous models built trust via IP addresses. However, with increasing numbers of devices and more interactions, securing networks from continuously changing locations demands a different solution.
Hence, companies increasingly turn to zero-trust security solutions like the ones offered by Zscaler. Zero-trust treats every user as a threat and uses "context-based identity" (job responsibilities, location, etc.) and policy enforcement to determine access. Also, since users access resources and apps rather than networks, Zscaler's software can prevent and mitigate security breaches.
Zscaler also stands out by operating as an edge computing solution. With 150 data centers worldwide, it reduces the lag time for clients. Its approach led to Gartner naming it a leader in the 2022 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Security Service Edge. Additionally, it claims almost 2,100 customers with over $100,000 in annual recurring revenue, including 40% of the Fortune 500.
Those numbers should continue to increase. Allied Market Research predicts the industry will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 19% through 2031, taking the market size to $126 billion. Thus, it may pleasantly surprise investors that in fiscal 2022 (which ended July 31), Zscaler generated $1.1 billion in revenue, rising 61% year over year. Due to the constant need for cybersecurity, recession threats are unlikely to slow company growth significantly, keeping revenue growth at an elevated level.
Moreover, Zscaler turned a non-GAAP profit for fiscal 2022 of $101 million, rising 34%. The rapid increases in costs and expenses, foreign currency losses, and revaluations of derivative investments reduced earnings.
Those fast-rising costs and expenses may also have caught Zscaler up in the bear market. The cybersecurity stock now sells at about a 60% discount to its all-time high in November. Additionally, given the current bear market, the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 19 may seem intolerably high.
However, those challenges should not alter the likely growth in the zero-trust security industry. Given its competitive advantages and rapid revenue growth, Zscaler looks like a screaming buy despite its elevated valuation.
By one measure, Spotify stock has never been cheaper
Jake Lerch (Spotify Technology): Like many so-called "stay-at-home" stocks, Spotify shares skyrocketed during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. If you'd invested $10,000 in Spotify stock in March 2020, it would have grown to more than $23,000 in March 2021. However, the last 18 months have not been kind to Spotify.
And while the damage to its stock price is undeniable, the company's fundamentals remain untouched. In fact, they've improved.
User growth is accelerating. In its most recent quarter (the three months ending on June 30, 2022), Spotify reported 433 monthly active users -- 5 million more than the company had projected.
Both premium (i.e., subscription) and ad-supported revenue have surged. Premium revenue increased 22% year over year to 2.5 billion euros, while ad-supported revenue jumped 31% to 360 million euros. Spotify's ad-supported revenue now stands at 13% of overall revenue, the highest percentage in the company's history.
Meanwhile, Spotify's valuation looks more sensible than ever. Its current price-to-sales ratio of 1.3 is an all-time low for the company -- and far below its lifetime average of 4.3.
SPOT PS Ratio data by YCharts
Of course, broader economic conditions are not great. Interest rates are rising and economic growth appears to be slowing. However, for long-term investors, economic slowdowns can present opportunities to build positions in the companies that will benefit when the inevitable turnaround arrives.
To my eyes, Spotify -- a stock with strong fundamentals and its lowest valuation in years -- looks poised for a comeback.
