The early days of the pandemic were an especially difficult time for many businesses, including brick-and-mortar retailers, airlines, hotels, and movie theaters. But the pandemic was a boost for other businesses, such as e-commerce retailers and industrial property owners.
Few businesses have benefited as much from a shift in consumer behavior in recent years as the industrial real estate investment trust (REIT) Prologis (PLD -1.15%). Let's dig into the reasons behind the company's impressive fundamentals and why I believe it is capable of doubling an investment today within six years.
The crème de la crème in a thriving industry
Prologis is the largest industrial property landlord in the world, with complete or part ownership in 4,732 industrial properties worth $180 billion in 19 countries.
Its properties and tenants process a whopping 15% of total global goods. At a time when we constantly hear of the importance of supply chains, Prologis' properties are clearly crucial to the smooth functioning of the global economy. Since more industrial real estate can't be created out of thin air, this builds in a tremendous amount of pricing power for the company.
And the necessity of Prologis' real estate isn't the only factor in its favor. As more consumers have turned to e-commerce for social-distancing reasons and convenience, the e-commerce penetration rate in 2022 is 160 basis points ahead of the pre-pandemic forecast.
This has led to a massive shortage of industrial real estate in the U.S. The current supply is on track to be fully absorbed in less than two years. For context, the historical average of the company's 30 U.S. markets is 36 months. And anything under 50 months leads to real rent growth. This explains how Prologis' global rent growth has soared from 5% in 2019 to a record projection of 20% in 2022.
This is why the company anticipates that its core funds from operations (FFO) per share will surge 9.9% higher to a midpoint of $4.56 for the year. For a company of such huge size, coming this close to a double-digit annual growth in core FFO per share is awesome.
Image source: Getty Images.
Robust dividend growth can persist
Prologis isn't just a decent growth play for investors. The stock has a 3.2% dividend yield, which is nearly double the S&P 500 index's 1.8% yield. And this attractive income is poised to increase in the years ahead.
That's because Prologis' dividend payout ratio will come in around 69% in 2022. This gives the company enough capital to keep expanding its portfolio of industrial properties while also delivering dividend growth in line with its increase in core FFO per share.
That's why I am confident that annual dividend growth will come in around 10% over the next several years, which is an excellent mix of income and growth potential.
A wonderful business at a fair valuation
World-class companies rarely come at a deep discount. And at a 22.2 ratio of forward price-to-core-FFO per share, Prologis is no exception. But that's also not excessive for a company with a track record of annual double-digit growth in core FFO.
Couple Prologis' 3.2% dividend yield with its potential for 10% annual growth in core FFO per share, and you have a stock that appears likely to double in six years. That's a compelling total return for a blue chip stock.
