Is Bristol Myers Squibb Stock a Buy With Its New-Product Sales Soaring?

Out with the old, in with the new. That could be an apt slogan for Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY -0.30%) these days.

The big drugmaker announced its third-quarter results on Tuesday evening and held its quarterly conference call on Wednesday morning. Bristol Myers Squibb's management team was quick to point to the strong performance of several new drugs in its portfolio. Is the stock a buy with its new-product sales soaring?

Plenty of positives

Bristol Myers Squibb CEO Giovanni Caforio noted in the Q3 results press release that the company has launched nine new products over the last three years, with three of them coming in 2022. He especially highlighted the latest win -- recent U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of Sotyktu in treating moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis.

These regulatory victories are partly behind the stock's solid gains so far this year. Bristol Myers Squibb's share price is up around 17%, trouncing the performance of the S&P 500.

Caforio and other executives had plenty of positives to brag about with those new products. Five new drugs generated double-digit percentage year-over-year sales growth in the third quarter. Zeposia led the way, with sales skyrocketing 73% to $69 million. The drug is currently approved as a treatment for relapsed multiple sclerosis and ulcerative colitis.

New cancer therapies Abecma and Breyanzi also continued to gain momentum. Sales for Abecma, which is approved to treat multiple myeloma, vaulted 51% year over year to $107 million. Sales for Breyanzi, which is approved to treat large B-cell lymphoma, jumped 47% to $44 million. Acute myeloid leukemia drug Onureg raked in $32 million in Q3, up 52% year over year.

The company's best-selling newer product for now, though, is Reblozyl. Sales for the drug, which is approved as a treatment for anemia in rare blood disorders beta-thalassemia and myelodysplastic syndrome, rose 19% year over year in Q3 to $190 million.

One of the three products introduced this year made a significant revenue contribution in Q3. Sales of cancer immunotherapy Opdualag totaled $84 million, up from $58 million in the previous quarter. Recently launched heart-failure drug Camzyos and psoriasis drug Sotyktu, though, generated only minimal sales in their early months on the market.

Some glaring problem spots

While Bristol Myers Squibb had plenty of positives in Q3, there were also some glaring problem spots. Unsurprisingly, sales of blood cancer drug Revlimid sank 28% year over year to $2.42 billion. Sales of another cancer drug, Abraxane, plunged 33% to $177 million. Both drugs now face generic competition after losing exclusivity.

Loss of exclusivity wasn't the prevailing factor behind the sales declines of two other drugs, though. Multiple myeloma drug Empliciti generated Q3 revenue of $73 million, down 11% year over year. Sales of myelofibrosis drug Inrebic, which Bristol includes in its new-products portfolio, fell 5% to $21 million.

Even some of the bright spots in Bristol Myers Squibb's Q3 update represent problems that are on the way. As much as executives played up the successes of newer products, it was really established winners Eliquis and Opdivo that carried the company in the quarter. Sales of blood thinner Eliquis jumped 10% year over year to $2.66 billion. Sales of cancer immunotherapy Opdivo rose 7% to $2.05 billion.

However, Bristol Myers Squibb won't be able to depend on Eliquis and Opdivo for too much longer. The former loses patent exclusivity in 2026, while key U.S. patents for the latter drug expire in 2028.

A big biopharma buy?

The loss of exclusivity for so many top-selling drugs would seem to be a reason for investors to avoid Bristol Myers Squibb altogether. However, the potential for the new products that management highlighted in the Q3 update shouldn't be ignored.

Opdualag will almost certainly become a blockbuster for the company. Bristol Myers Squibb projects peak sales of at least $4 billion for the combination immunotherapy. The company has a similar revenue expectation for Sotyktu.

Camzyos has already been approved for treating adults with certain types of obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). The FDA set a PDUFA date of June 16, 2023 to make a decision on approval of the drug for an expanded indication to reduce the need for septal reduction therapy, which requires either open-heart surgery or use of a catheter to remove a coronary artery obstruction. Bristol Myers Squibb thinks that Camzyos, like Opdualag and Sotyktu, could rake in peak annual sales of $4 billion or more.

These three new drugs represent just the tip of the iceberg. Bristol Myers Squibb estimates that it could add $25 billion or more in revenue growth by 2029 if all of the drugs in its new product portfolio meet expectations.

Despite its solid gains this year, Bristol Myers Squibb's shares trade at below nine times expected earnings. Its new products could more than offset the coming sales declines for Eliquis and Opdivo. And the company pays an attractive dividend yield of nearly 3% in the meantime. 

Is the big biopharma stock a buy? I think so.