ASML Holding's (ASML -1.03%) stock price plunged 43% so far in 2022 thanks to concerns about a slowdown in chip demand, as well as the broader market sell-off that has been triggered by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. But shares of the Dutch semiconductor giant started rallying following the release of its third-quarter 2022 results on Oct. 19.
ASML's top and bottom lines exceeded expectations as the demand for its semiconductor manufacturing equipment remained healthy. But what caught investors' attention was ASML's solid guidance and management's assurance that the U.S. government's restrictions on sales of chips to China will only have a limited impact on the company's 2023 revenue. More specifically, just 5% of ASML's backlog would be impacted by the ban.
Investors have been pessimistic about ASML ever since the restrictions on the sales of chips to China were announced. So it isn't surprising to see the stock rallying in the wake of management's reassuring outlook that was driven by solid growth in orders for ASML's lithography equipment. Let's look at the reasons why ASML seems built for impressive growth going forward.
ASML Holding is about to step on the gas
ASML reported Q3 revenue of 5.78 billion euros, up 10% over the prior-year period. Analysts would have settled for 5.3 billion euros in revenue from ASML, but the company's efforts to speed up the installation of its machines at customer sites helped it recognize more revenue than anticipated.
ASML was hamstrung by component shortages that kept the company from recognizing revenue. It has been shipping incomplete machines to customer sites in a bid to speed up deliveries, but it cannot recognize revenue from such shipments until and unless the machines are tested at the sites and formally accepted by the customers. Now that the supply chain problems seem to ease, ASML is able to complete more deliveries and guided strongly for the final quarter of the year.
It anticipates revenue between 6.1 billion and 6.6 billion euros in the current quarter. That points toward a nice increase of 27% over the prior-year period's revenue of 5 billion euros at the midpoint of ASML's revenue guidance range. What's more, ASML has enhanced its full-year guidance range as well. The company now anticipates full-year revenue of 21.1 billion euros, which would translate into a year-over-year increase of at least 13%.
ASML was earlier anticipating 10% revenue growth in 2022. More importantly, ASML is all set to sustain its impressive growth in 2023 as well. CEO Peter Wennink remarked on the latest earnings conference call that ASML's "2023 shipment demand is still significantly above our build and shipment capacity for next year."
ASML's massive backlog supports Wennink's statement. The company exited the quarter with its "largest backlog ever" of over 38 billion euros. It is also worth noting that ASML received orders worth 8.9 billion euros last quarter, a big increase over the 6.2 billion euros worth of orders it received in the prior-year period.
The sharp growth in ASML's order backlog isn't surprising, as chipmakers are rushing to buy the company's lithography equipment to make more advanced chips. This explains why Wennink pointed out on the latest conference call that: "While some customers are now adjusting the desired timing of their demand, the vast majority of our customers are still requesting shipment of their litho systems as soon as possible."
Not surprisingly, analysts anticipate ASML's revenue to head higher in 2023 and beyond, as the following chart shows us.
ASML Revenue Estimates for Current Fiscal Year data by YCharts
Even better, analysts anticipate annual earnings growth of nearly 30% from the semiconductor bellwether for the next five years.
Buy the stock before it is too late
ASML stock has been in resurgent mode since its earnings report, gaining nearly 5% since Oct. 19. The company's improved guidance for 2022 and indications that it will keep growing in 2023 and beyond could propel this semiconductor stock higher and inflate the valuation.
That's why investors should consider buying ASML stock hand over fist before it gets more expensive. ASML is currently trading at 35 times trailing earnings and 25 times forward earnings. These multiples are lower than its five-year average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 41 and forward P/E ratio of 34.
So investors are still getting a relatively good deal on ASML stock right now. They may not want to pass up this opportunity, as the company seems built for solid growth, both in the short and the long run.
